Member Info for adoubleuk

slipanchor,

"They have had two dummy runs so I'm expecting everything to go like clockwork."

Disagree. One 'dummy run' and one actual 'attempt'. And although I'm keeping my fingers crossed, I'm sure that if the crew see anything 'not right' in terms of weather, ot how it may effect the mechanisms involved, they'll abandon and wait for a later opportunity. Which might be frustating for everyone, (includine those offsher doing the actual work, but just how it is.

Patience...

Oh my goodness. This is turning into a long night, what with 'shipwatching', an all.

Please, 'Moderators', don't red-card me, because I'm going waaay off-topic again, and I know I'm treading a fairly thin line with LSE these days, despite faithfully keeping up my 'premium' subscription.

But once again something musical, which I've just discovered. And this HUR BB is in general one of the 'chattiest' ones around,best-informed, and all sorts of things. And this is something I just HAVE TO share, becuse it's pure magic.

Maybe you, the 'moderators' might like to click on it. But it might cause a problem. Like you not getting any of your 'proper work' done for the next quarter of an hour!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syRRIsYYfa8

John Meyer. Name rang a slight bell, but then I seem to remember having seen him playing with Eric Clapton once.

But here, playing 'Althea', one of my most favorite Garcia / Hunter Greatful Dead songs. So haunting and whistful. But here Meyer is playing it slightly toned-down, so the lyrics stand out yet better than they sometimes did.

One stanza:

"You might meet the fate of Ophelia, sleeping and perchance to dream.
Honest to the point of recklessness; self-centred to the extreme."

Man, it doesn't get better than that. Story of my life. Plus of course the soaring musical melody...

Discovering this little masterpiece fits well with the FPSO being in the field, and a nice feeling about things.

Wulbert,

did anyone ever make a steam turbine powered locomotive?

Yes. Check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GE_steam_turbine_locomotives

And as Lady S has said, I believe one was tried in the UK, but can't find a reference. And haven't got the time, anyway, 'cos I'm going to join my regular late-night poker tounament. Which I'll almost certainly get knocked out of before making the 'pay'. Because every time my shares go into the blue, my poker game does the opposite.

That's life, I suppose. Can't win 'em all.

Wellwell,

"I believe it is completely omni-directional. That’s is whole purpose."

You've misunderstood me.

Yes, of course, the turret / buoy setup is 360 degrees rotational. 'Omnidirectional'. But the mechanisms initially latching the buoy into the turret aren't, unless I've seriously misundertood something. In fact, although I said 15 degrees earlier,, I believe the actual circular 'tolerance' is 30 degrees. But nevertheless, 50 percent of that gives enough 'wriggle-room' given the sort of iron we're talking about. Time to get out the crowbars, if you get my meaning. Though it won't be crowbars. More likely long-throw Enerpacs connected to chains, and some very close communication with the bridge.

bartlebobton,

" a true counterculture in rural Norfolk."

Yeah, glad you liked it. But that's only a quarter of the full documentary.

Those people were good friends, who I only got to know after their 'Norfolk period' and when they moved to Oxford. In a HUGE townhouse, in a very 'posh' part of the city, but still 'living comunally'. And heck, their old green bus, parked in front, in an area where smart Jaguars and Rolls Royces were the norm? Oh, it was lovely.

How did it all work? The keyboard player, Jimmy Lascelles, was at the time a mere 17th in line to the throne of England. There were multiple conspiracicies to bump off the other 16! And his elder brother Jeremy, (manager) who went on to form Chrysalis Records? Not sure, but probably closer. Plus of course 'Kanga' Althorpe was from a very rich background.

Happy, somewhat innocent, but carefree days! Or rather, not entirely carefree. One always had to find the money to pay for fuel smokes, food (order of importance), and try not not to electrocute oneself. Nowt's changed, much, come to think of it.

DC,

"The RNS also said “The rope has now been freed and the buoy returned to its starting position.” which implies that the buoy had been raised from its start position."

Yes. I made exactly the same point in a post some days ago. And it also coincides with a (manually inputted) change in draft, which makes sense. Though equally, now, she's showing 10m draft, not 10.5, implying more 'fine tuning'.

To misquote Nick Nolte in that utterly great movie '48 hours', "I can see this is going to be a long effin' night..."

Wellwell,

"As for the Olympic Zeus I doubt AK that she was doing any "positioning" work. That's a sledgehammer to crack a walnut scenario in my opinion given the buoy has a buoy marker of its own for the pull-in. "

Won't argue with you, 'cos really I don't know. No 'inside info'. But I slightly suspect a sledgehammer to crack a nut might be involved. Especially as it appeared to be a 14-day charter, she went out, did whatever she did quite quickly, and is now sitting idle back home in Bergen.

I'm still sitting firmly on my 'positioning' perch. Because I strongly suspect the buoy latch-up procedure isn't omnidirectional. They've got to get it aligned within 15 degrees or so, in terms of heading. And that's a pretty tight margin, when one thinks about vessel movement, and also buoy behaviour what with currents and all, while underwater, and being winched up.

Sure, we're talking of thousands of tons of stuff here. But that means a lot of momentum, and also inertia.So it's quite a 'delicate' manoeuver, nevertheless.

So I feel the OZ's visit might be to do with 'fine-tuning' things a bit.

I wich they hadn't put that 'snagged rope' expression into the RNS. It's essentially meaningless. I don't want to know what sort of sausages they were serving for breakfast that day, but just once in a while some proper detail would be nice. Because there are a few investors here who aren't dummies.

Which includes yourself, no matter how often we disagree with each other!

If they kinked or twisted the winch-wire due to a slight 'heading misalignment', caused by a marginal sea-state and /or bad currents, why not say so? Sure 95% of people wouldn't understand, but a 'snagged rope' just doesn't work, for me. Because you can always cut a rope. And if you don't have a sharp instument to hand with which to do so, you shouldn't be at sea.

winalot,

"If we see the AM doing 360 degree turns on the spot tomorrow might suggest she is hooked up to the buoy and doing the maneuverability tests as shown on the Maersk Peligrino video. Just a thought. Not sure if AIS would track that tho?"

When actually 'in one spot', AIS becomes very unreliable, in terms of headings, and even 'recorded speed'. It just takes one wave (for instance) to move the vessel in one direction or another, and thus 'move' the antenna just at the moment the signal's being picked up, and it might show 2 knots whereas the boat's still in the same place as before, essentially 'stationary'.

The only way (in my opinion) the AIS will give us a 'clue' about successful latch-up will be once she's stayed in more or less the right place, coinciding with the buoy, for about 48 hours or so. Along with a possible 'change of status' notification and maybe change in draft. But both these latter two are manually-inputted, and the guys and gals out there might be moer busy with other things before bothering with AIS changes...

Oh bother. I forgot the link, and this is only part of the documentary. Can't find the full thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3K9BEo8UVs

bartlebobton,

"adoubleuk.... would you like to expand on life with the chaplain in Oxford ...evensong and candles....?"

No, not really. But it was back in the days when 'funny business' wasn't involved. The chaplain had far more of a leaning towards some of the female undergraduates of legal age!

But he was instrumental in allowing a concert to be put on in the University Church on a Saturday evening, starring the late great Global Village Trucking Company, supported by a band with the dubious name of Bagshot Louie. Whose guitarist went on to play with 10CC, and the drummer occasionally with John Otway.

I was in charge of electrical stuff, PA, and (unscheduled) liason with the police.

It caused an absolute scandal amongst some regular churchgoers, who came in early to clear up the mess. Because the smell in the air certainly wasn't incence! And it took months for the stains on the floor from the soap-bubble machine to get completely cleaned up.

Which is why the 'Mayfly Festival' was created for the following year. Take the thing outdoors, out of secular surroundings (which was admittedly rather strange), and where we could tap into nearby power-lines (risking one's life) without having a noisy generator involved.

winalot,

"Looks like she has arrived!"

Not quite. In the vicinity, though. About 5 km from the buoy.

Keep calm, folks. And let's hope the seas do.

An odd little thing, though. Olympic Zeus is still in Bergen. So assorted 'shipwatcher speculation' about a possible 'tug-assist' might have been wrong. And I haven't got the time nor inclination to trawl the internet to see if the's still on contract or not.

Which of course begs the question about what she was doing on her 'lightning visit' to the buoy. I still reckon it's all something to do with 'positioning', and getting it exact.

But of course, I'm a dumbarse with no real knowledge about this stuff. So I'll just set my alarm-clock for seven tomorrow morning and program my computer to wake up at the same time, tuned into the AIS.

snaggletooth,

"Up the Puffins!"

I won't ask you to elaborate on that remark. I don't think we want to know...

(Please forgive a bit more after-hours O/T, just continuing an earlier thread.)

Reverandy,

I'm sitting here 'shipwatching', writing my usual assorted drivel, etc., with that fabulous youtube clip I found the other day of a GD concert.

And I've suddenly remembered when and where I first became aware of those musicians' stuff. It was in the digs of the chaplain of Queen's College, Oxford. He was also at the time vicar of St. Mary's, the University Church. I was sixteen years old, and the context was a meet-up of a sort of quasi-philosophical 'youth group', such as was popular at the time, where the participants also brought along new favorite records, or musical instruments, or artwork, or whatever.

Strange how these things go round!

casapinos,

"Two apologies , first to ADUK"

Absolutely no apology requested nor required!

I've found today's posts on this topic both interesting and educational. Obviously there are a number of different opinions, but when the chat doesn't degenerate into animosity (which it hasn't), it's all good and useful stuff to read.

By the way, your phrase " there are a myriad of ways in which HUR could "monetise" their assets , My example was driven by the interesting and as yet unexplained process of creating a number of holding companies under the HUR umbrella which seems to imply a the possibility of piecemeal disposal."

I feel that 'as yet unexplained process' would make an excellent question subject to be posed by someone attending this year's AGM, just in hope of some clarification about it. Unfortunately (yet again) I won't be there, not from a lack of desire to be so, but other obligations which clash, time-wise.

casapinos,

" the underlying principle behind the stock market valuation of almost all companies is "the estimated value of the flow of future dividends....".

Errr...yesss...

Sort of.

But also, this is why yesterday (or was it the day before?) I brought up the poker-player's phrase of 'implied pot odds'.

Hurricane has stated (and there hasn't been a retraction of such a statement yet, to my knowledge) that they don't intend to pay any dividends. For that reson, personally speaking, I can't value my own shareholding on the basis of getting some sort of percentage paid back into my bank account in the future. Instead, all I can do is look at what the current SP is, and say "that's the value of what I own'.

HOWEVER, another thing Hurricane has unequivocally said is that they intend to 'monetise their assets' at some point in the future. And this might be done in a variety of ways. For the sake of argument, let's imagine a takeover by a Major oil company, with a 'shares for shares swap' at a certain sum. Let's pretend it's BP. There, I may have a choice. I can either sell my shares at the buyout value (hopefully greater than the current SP, thus netting myself a lump-sum profit greater than I'm already sitting on in paper terms. Or instead I might choose instead to have my shares converted into those of the Major, which (hopefully) will pay a dividend.

But there's another way of looking at it. (In fact there are multiple ways.) Some company buys into the assets, but without any equity (shares) swap. Someone like Centrica, for instance. I don't make any direct immediate personal profit from the deal, and the SP doesn't move much, inciting me to trade. But I've got other options. Like buying some Centrica shares, knowing they've now got something of value which they didn't have before. So I can hope that the dividend they are already paying might increase.

Or another way to think of i, maybe a rather old-fashioned one. I might be some king of forty-years-young industrialist (which I'm not!). I might figure out that if my factory is still going to be working at a profit ten years in the future, I need energy prices to stay as low as possible. Fuel for my lorries, gas for the boilers. How can this be achieved? By supporting such energy-providing companies, thus ensuring the supply doesn't run short. So I invest, without really caring about future share price fluctuations. 'Implied odds'. Maybe not making any instant profits, but nevertheless saving myself from potential future losses. Which adds up to the same thing, really.

But back to the top.

" the stock market valuation of almost all companies is "the estimated value of the flow of future dividends....".

Hurricane has said they won't pay dividends. Does this mean I should sell all my holding immediately? No, of course not.

casapinos,

"The SP will rise in anticipation of a special dividend and fall back, when it is paid and as the value of proven assets and cash in the bank falls."

Sorry mate. Normally I read your posts with deep interest, because you're way more clued-up about the financial side than I am. But as soon as I see the word 'dividend' menioned, to me it's like a red rag presented to a bull. I know the documentation provided by the company is multitudinous and quite dense, these days, so I can't provide a reference. But I'm 100% certain that somewhere in there, there's a phrase saying the company has no plans of paying any dividends to shareholders.

For that reason, I'm afraid to say (in my opinion) that suggesting such a thing may happen is disingenious and non-factual. I'd also suggest that no PI should even think about such a hypothetical thing when trying to estimate the 'value' of their investment.

Tow looking good. Currently 4.5 kt, heading south, about 60 miles off Bridlington.

The AM currently doing four knots heading north, about ten miles south of Fair Isle, with the Grampian Dynamic in close company, rather like a faithful dog which doesn't need to be held on a lead.

All seems well with the world, so adoubleuk's going back to his pit for a few more hours' shuteye.

Hi, Jiffybag!

I see your an 'early riser'. Bit like me, I've been up since 03:30. But there again, I went to bed before midnight, which is a bit unusual.

Normally around 03:30 I'm grabbing my hat and starting the drive home.

Don't want to comment on your 'Parliament' post, because

Well, just because.

But you wrote an earlier thing. An exerpt:

"Agree in part, but my thoughts on this have been of the following.Suppose HUR do not recommend selling off the 'Whole Science Project' as you put it, ie just a fraction at a time, as the asset is proved up, and becomes more valuable, and enhances shareholder value etc."

Yes, and this is an 'odd' thing, the company sub-divisions, and something which I don't think has been quite explained. But probably because nobody's asked the right questions about it, at the right time, like an AGM...

"In other words it might be argued tha,t as the value of the assets are proved up/realised over time, that in itself will command a higher value per share obviously but...."

Errr... Yesss... But....

As the years go by, little me getting older one year per annum, the clock continuing to inexorably tick, I become more and more wary about talk regarding 'asset values' and 'value to shareholders'. Because how many examples have we observed in the past where such phrases are used, but the two turn out not to equate? Another contributor quoted some, just a few hours ago.

I'm also, personally, getting sick to my back teeth of hearing that word 'transformational', which is supposed to mean a green light for 'the herd' to get moving. And one sees that 'the herd' is quite happy where it is, continues chewing the cud, and ignores the traffic-light.

I guess what it boils down to is that really, I don't care how many billions of barrels of oil are there in the ground, nor how much they might be worth with a hypotheticall forward-looking price of crude. What interests me instead is what the company's share-price is, and their 'value' at any particular moment, convertable into ready cash. To keep me alive, pays the rent and the diesel, etc.

Sorry. I've suddenly realised that must sound terribly cynical. But it's how i'm feeling right now, despite having just eaten half a dozen oysters and some nice cheese for breakfast.

I believe in the 'Hurricane thing' 120%, it's technically sound, the business-plan's good, and so on. But the SP just isn't reflecting that, and that bothers me. All these 'experts' and 'analysts' quoting sky-high 'evaluations', but which simply don't happen.

It reminds me of that old cartoon with two vultures sitting in a tree, and one saying "Patience be damned, I'm going to go off and kill something".

Hey ho! Time to go look see where the FPSO is...

tinlode,

"What we need, really really need. is Trump to sort everything out."

I disagree. Instead, we need some of these 'gilet jaunes' people to go to Brussels.

(The trouble being, they have no reason to do so. Diesel costs 12% less in Belgium than it does in France.)