Member Info for Adieuk32

Back of a fag packet calculation for Q1 22 Figures for Tullow..

Jubilee - 91,200 - 38.9% share (post pre-emption 31/12/21) = 35,477
TEN - 25,000 - 54.8% share (post pre-emption 31/12/21) = 13,700
Other Non-operated Average based on Update = 18,000

Total NET Production 67,177 ( Above guidance )

40,000 Hedged at $77 = $3,080,000
27,177 Unhedged at $105 Average = $2,853,585

Total $5,933,585 Per day revenue x 90 Days = $534,022,650

Less OPEX / CAPEX Estimate $37 x 67,177 = $223,699,410

Gross Profit of $310,323,240

Est Overheads $100,000,000
De-commissiong $25,000,000

Profit $185,323,240

Not Bad to me give or take $50Million.

Lets see what Kenny has to offer tomorrow.

AIMO & DYOR

GL ALL

Africa Oils CEO Keith Hill -
Kenya appears to be the forgotten youngster right here in Africa Oil. And I variety do not blame buyers on that. We have been at this for a very long time. I hold telling all people right here, it is an ideal undertaking and that we’re – we’re transferring ahead on this and we have now an excellent probability of transferring this ahead. I can not blame folks for not believing me in any case these years of constructing these guarantees. However I can inform you, we’re fairly engaged on this. I used to be in Kenya final week. We now have a few – very events, and I feel the possibilities of getting the strategic accomplice we have been taking a look at for the previous few years is getting nearer and nearer. I can not make any guarantees, and I can not disclose who it’s. However I feel we’re truly getting fairly excited that we’re lastly going to recover from the lump on this and truly transfer this undertaking ahead.

So once more, the proof is within the pudding. If we have now a accomplice we’re hoping to announce someday within the second quarter. However the stars appear to be they’re lastly aligning on this, and I feel we have got probability of truly placing some worth into the corporate on this. I can inform you proper now, there is no such thing as a worth in for Kenya in our share worth. But when we’re in a position to pull this off, I feel that is going to be price no less than $1 in all probability extra a share to the corporate.

Q. The first one submitted in fact, before the pool started. Has the field development plan for Kenyan project been well received? And do you expect any changes that are necessary to make it a plan?

A. - Keith Hill
So, yes, that was quite – we spent a lot of time talking about that when I was in Kenya last week. I think that in general, everyone is very happy, both the joint venture partners and the government with the overall development plan, there were a few tweaks to be made sure we called. And I think we're now working through those with the government. The potential partners that are coming in, the people that are looking at it, I think, are also quite happy with that development plan and would take it as it is going forward.

So, I think the process is that by May 5, or sorry, May 10 is the deadline for the government to approve, and we're working very hard to make sure that we resolve everything. But right now, I think, we're 95%, 98% of the way there. I would expect it to be on track for approval on the 10 of May.

Last chance to Top at these levels, MM's are working there socks off to lower the price....

GL ALL

Positive production update 91,200 from Jubilee 25,000 from TEN all on the top end of guidance, with 99% uptime.

FPSO back on line by end of week as planned.

Just KENYA News tomorrow now.

GL ALL

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-announces-first-quarter-2022-results

Ghana
Production(3) in Ghana averaged approximately 42,300 barrels of oil per day (bopd) net in the first quarter of 2022. Kosmos lifted four cargos from Ghana during the quarter, in line with guidance.

At Jubilee, production averaged approximately 91,200 bopd gross during the quarter. At TEN, production averaged approximately 25,000 bopd gross for the first quarter. High reliability of the Ghana production facilities continues, with uptime of the Jubilee and TEN FPSO's averaging around 99% in the first quarter as well as high levels of water injection and gas offtake from the Government of Ghana.
On Jubilee, a water injector well was drilled and completed in the first quarter and is now providing pressure support to the field. A further producer well and water injector well were drilled in the first quarter with completion expected during the second quarter, which should help to support production levels through the second half of the year.
The Jubilee floating production, storage and offloading vessel ("FPSO") is currently undergoing a two week planned shut down for routine maintenance and facility upgrades with production expected to recommence at the end of this week.

Tullow gets a mention.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/exclusive-guyana-no-rush-draft-new-oil-production-sharing-pact-minister-2022-05-06/

No response from IR..NUMEROUS EMAILS SENT.

All looks like Current NEWS BLACKOUT

Rahul hasn’t been seen since his meeting in March, which he couldn’t make the investor webinar.

New CFO, still not taken office??

KENYA Strategic partner, Guyana imminent farm in partner for 15th MAY drill by REPSOL, GHANA Gas Agreement, no NEWS.

Something big IMHO is about to happen.

All the signs of a TAKE OVER.

Next 2 weeks are going to get interesting.

GL ALL

Probably a card board cut out in the window.

We need answers, and now.

They all have debt, that’s what oil companies have, some more or some less, but if you compare like for like basis the debt of each company listed had near enough the same debt levels at this point last year, nothing changed except for the share price.

You would expect a few to be down, but not us.

Look at what has changed with Tullow over the past 12 months….

Increased TEN & Jubilee share, which has increased 5k BOPD.

Debt has reduced by $200 Million

POO has increased from $60 to $110

15th MAY Guyana Drill campaign kicks off, targeting 200 Million barrels.

Kenya FDP submitted, awaiting FID & strategic partners?

NEW Contract Discussions with Ghana government to discuss the supply GAS from end of year, increase of 6k BOPD.

GHANA Drilling campaign started in April 2021 going as expected, 6 new wells so far drilled, Jubilee has increased production by 25% in a year.

GABON new discoveries increased production by 40%

Broker upgrades, Moodys credit rating upgrade, shorts closing, but still no better the SP

Share incentive awards of 14+Million shares for the last 12 months success !!!!!!

Manipulation, Corruption, Company NEWS Blackout, something is not the REAL DEAL here, and we need answers, now.

GL ALL

We are being shafted here, I’ve emailed IR as to why Rahul has gone in to hiding, couldn’t be arsed to be on the investor Q&A in March, but no updates from him.

I have been informed that he will be at the AGM in a few weeks time, who else is going?

Anyone notice that the AGM is being held at the office, I know every barrel matters, every dollar counts, but is everyone going to fit into the board room??

My past 12 months other oilers on my share watch list.

GKP - up 39%
ENQEST up 91%
EOG up 82%
HUR up 1,249%
BP up 31%
CHAR up 206%
GENL up 13%
KOS up 189%
SHELL up 58%
And so on and on, not 1 down, now who says this is not being manipulated.

We need answers from the BOD as to why we are operators of Kenya/Ghana, but have to find out what’s going on from KOSMOS AND AFTICA OIL

NOT GOOD ENOUGH TULLOW BOD - SEE YOU AT THE AGM

IR have been emailed, if everyone asks them, what the hell is going on then we may get some answers.

GL ALL

Oil up, we’re down oil down, we done further.

55p is a fooking joke.

65,000 BOPD at $97 average, absolute joke.

Where are the BOD?

If this KENYA deal doesn’t come to nothing, then heads are going to roll.

Complete waste of the last 7 months of Rahul and the teams time, if this dosent pan out.

GL ALL

Kenya lack of news holding this back, which the Shorters are able to manipulate the trades on low volumes.

Either way we’re about to know our fate.

If Africa oil can be relied on, then it’s a done deal.

Week today we will find out.

GL ALL

If we get the Kenya FID sorted, then we will have this over £1 no doubt.

The B/Sheet has already accounted for the impairment costs on this project.

Tullows share in Kenya is in excess of $1 Billion on the top line, with only $250 million impairment if the project is a no go.

That’s about our market cap.

2p reserves of 275 Million net to Tullow, will double the amount we have already.

5 trading days left.

GL ALL

Should see a record earnings quarter on the cards, BP is on the 3rd May, should give confidence in the sector.

GL ALL

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4491951-africa-oils-aoiff-ceo-keith-hill-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript
Shahin Amini

[Indiscernible] and Keith there's a number of questions submitted through the webcast. And there's as always quite a few. So, I'm just going to go in order. The first one submitted in fact, before the pool started. Has the field development plan for Kenyan project been well received? And do you expect any changes that are necessary to make it a plan?

Keith Hill

So, yes, that was quite – we spent a lot of time talking about that when I was in Kenya last week. I think that in general, everyone is very happy, both the joint venture partners and the government with the overall development plan, there were a few tweaks to be made sure we called. And I think we're now working through those with the government. The potential partners that are coming in, the people that are looking at it, I think, are also quite happy with that development plan and would take it as it is going forward.

So, I think the process is that by May 5, or sorry, May 10 is the deadline for the government to approve, and we're working very hard to make sure that we resolve everything. But right now, I think, we're 95%, 98% of the way there. I would expect it to be on track for approval on the 10 of May.

All right. And Keny. Kenya seems to be the forgotten child here in Africa Oil. And I kind don't blame investors on that. We've been at this for a long time. I keep telling everybody here, it's a great project and that we are – we're moving forward on this and we have a very good chance of moving this forward. I can't blame people for not believing me after all these years of making those promises. But I can tell you, we are quite engaged on this. I was in Kenya last week. We have a couple of interested – very interested parties, and I think the chances of getting the strategic partner we've been looking at for the past few years is getting closer and closer. I can't make any promises, and I can't disclose who it is. But I think we're actually getting pretty excited that we're finally going to get over the lump on this and actually move this project forward.

So again, the proof is in the pudding. If we have a partner we're hoping to announce sometime in the second quarter. But the stars seem like they're finally aligning on this, and I think we've got a good chance of actually putting some value into the company on this. I can tell you right now, there is no value in for Kenya in our share price. But if we're able to pull this off, I think this is going to be worth at least $1 probably more a share to the company.
I prefer to rely on true facts, published by J.V partners, not what I read on BB.

Keep dreaming for 45p again

GL ALL HOLDERS

10th MAY Deadline date getting closer.

Expecting this to start moving back to the 60's very soon.

Allot happening in MAY.

Guyana Drill commences
Kenya News - 10th May - per Africa oil Q1 update.
AGM
Gas Agreement - potential - Discussions ongoing
2nd RIG Potential for Q1 2023
1st year of Hedged oil lapsed. (12 Months remaining)
Jubilee Shutdown success.

Nice entry point for substantial gains.

GL ALL

https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/why-value-and-momentum-could-propel-the-tullow-oil-share-price-higher-267575/

GL ALL

EXXON are throwing the money at it.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Exxon-Bets-Another-10-Billion-On-Guyanas-Oil-Boom.amp.html

This will be released very soon.

Not too long to wait now.

GL ALL

Circa 65,000 BOPD NET to Tullow

Jubilee circa 38,000
TEN. 10,000
Non operated 17,000

Planned shutdown for 2 weeks will bring yearly average between 59-65k BOPD for the year.

Kenya will produce 120,000 BOPD, Tullow is the operator with 50% Current stake, but looking to farm down for a strategic partner with deep pockets.

Not a time to sell, sitting on hands waiting for news, which will be by 10th MAY 2022, as per Africa oil report.

GL ALL