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Thank you everyone for your feedback. I look at technicals regularly but not in this area. Happy to be educated where knowledge gaps exist and clearly I know less than I thought I did.
This morning I bought back into OMI (sadly, I broke a promise I made here that I wouldn’t sell any of my shares but they dropped too much from their highs so I got out)… anyway, it has listed my BUY as a SELL. Huh?! I’ve heard of this but when the proof is sitting before your very eyes it’s kind of maddening.
Who do I complain to?
“You probably need an advfn login. A lot of WSBN trades go through the AQSE exchange rather than the London stock exchange. You need to find a provider which shows all exchanges, not just London. FYI there have been 5 AQSE trades earlier this morning , of 41234, 1606, 20000, 4073 and 687 trades. Was yours one of these ?” Ha, I didn’t see that. So AQSE must take longer? Yes one of those was mine - thank you. At least it exists somewhere.
Hi guys
Fundamentals are one thing but on a technical level, it appears that ITX is reaching its lows. Small buys vs sells, but comparatively much more frequent. Activity is low overall, as volume indicates, so I see this climbing soon, and TA suggests (albeit cautiously) in the right direction. I could be wrong about the next move for this stock, but price vs RSI vs stochastic indicates the beginning of some bullish divergence. It is, of course, possible ITX will drop to 5.5p but I think that’s an excellent price, and a buying opportunity for a trade (I’ll definitely buy more at that stage if applicable) despite the recently published uncertainty that undid the over exuberant optimism which preceded it.
Re the company, I’m sure the fundamental concern in the shorter term is growth because of the last RNS but I feel this is a gross underestimation and, consequently, miscalculation of a compelling use case / stock.
Full disclosure: ITX is an existing trade that I’m building further (buying on the way down since 6.5p), and also one of my main long term investments.
Strange post.
"Some 8,433 deaths involving Covid-19 were registered in England and Wales in the week to January 29."
The above figure is alarming but it's not the figure being shared today, thank goodness.
However, any death count below 600 (weekly) puts Covid in the range of a bad year of flu (30,000), and this 24% increase is below 500. I'm not saying it's nothing - every death is bad - but it doesn't justify the media coverage or the title of your post. People need to zoom out. The vaccinations or herd immunity, or a combination of the two, must be working. I hope I'm right and I'm sure you hope so, too, but, for now, there's no reason to assume otherwise. Risk to young is extremely low. The vaccination rates for oldest and most vulnerable are reassuringly high.
CazenoveUK,
MARA $24 pre market 99m shares
RIOT $27 pre market 84m shares
ARB 99p($1.38) 382m shares
And you think Argo Blockchain is… what??
One share of Argo is less expensive than a packet of Kettle Chips on special offer and you think they’re pricey? Even when taking future earnings into account, especially with the expansion plans, I read FUD.
A less critical thinking person could take the remainder of your post at face value, but you neglected to add that the wonderful thing about smaller cap, younger miners who are expanding well is that they haven’t yet got all the big money behind them that will really jack up their share price.
Oh, and Bitcoin is about to go on a tear…
Hi Blubay,
Spot on! It irritates me. If this were a stock with large institutional backing like some other stocks, I wouldn’t mind. But retail is getting hurt by all this nasty FUD. The guys spreading it have a lot more money because you have to have specific access and enough capital to open short positions. This is literally a case of wealthier people trying to take from people who not only have less but who are often younger and less experienced. I’m not a newbie but I was once. I may b a full time trader now, but I remember getting hurt in my early days. One of the reasons I joined this site and specifically this board was because I could see the FUD was making people jittery. All they want to do is invest and they’re being treated like “dumb money”. I may be Gen X but I love Gen Z etc. Our future generations need more money to invest in themselves, which is good for our economic growth. Fair criticism is one thing. Nasty FUD is something else.
Actually I’m wrong about the recent SP pop. I remember someone confirmed it was shorted at the time wasn’t it and there was a little short squeeze, which gathered momentum quickly. I should be careful with my wording sometimes. I don’t want to share incorrect information, even with good intentions. Sorry, I haven’t been monitoring the price closely recently, just having a glance now and then.
Received Yahoo Finance pop-up confirming the news re dual listing.
I’m not saying it’s a good or a bad thing, just that we’re newsworthy. I suspect this is why the stock popped a few days ago. I’m cautiously optimistic about where we are heading, assuming BTC doesn’t suddenly go off a cliff.
As for this dilution talk… good lord.
… some facts:
Dual listings offer more investors the chance to invest in a company.
America’ stock market is globally accessible and extremely popular. More importantly for us, it has a big options market - Riot does very well in bull cycles, helped a lot by this, which is the main reason US stocks outperform ARB. Once listed on the NASDAQ, the benefits of derivatives traders buying calls is nothing but positive news for ARB. It’s that simple. Peter Wall gets it. I do. Many do. Some, clearly, do not.
Ignore the ridiculous “they are diluting you” noise. It is FUD at worst, but even at best, reveals market ignorance. again, markets rely on accessibility to potential buyers. That’s why cryptocurrencies that get listed on big exchanges surge by crazy percentages and stay up even after the post-listing pullback as short term traders cash their profits.
I’m actually a little irritated that some people have managed to turn 100% bullish news like this into anything even slightly bearish, even by 1%. This is reason alone to ignore anything subsequently said by that person, in my opinion.
Best wishes. AK
I read your post. You don’t buy a high growth tech stock during a bull cycle at PE 50, though you can if that’s what the market values it at, but in this market it’s not bad at all, even low. For growth you tend to buy on price to sales ratios.
ARB’s growth, especially with a high profit margin, justifies a valuation of much higher than 20-22p. It’s insulting to suggest it should be less than £1 (BTC at $30k) based on revenue and imminent expansion following the Galaxy Digital short term loan. I suspect that ARB fell today, though I haven’t checked short positions, because people are so bearish they think the bull market is over. I see little evidence of this. If BTC struggles to hold $20k all gloves are off but I don’t see that happening or even going that low, despite Gareth Soloway suggesting it will (he’s very good and his views shouldn’t be dismissed - and he’s pretty honest I think).
What bubble? Have you seen the on-chain data re Bitcoin? The short term buyers are loading up. During bear markets long term HODLers dominate the purchasing at a discount, waiting for the next bull cycle. But this changed after the sell-off from 28th June, following a massive sell-off. Completely coordinated of course. So many liars in the financial sector… allegedly! ;)
Anyway, the data (ignore the noise) is important. It’s all on glassnode. I’ve posted about it on Twitter - @adelekinvesting.
I honestly don’t care who buys or sells right now. I have a high threshold for volatility these days. Besides, we have bigger problems to deal with than Bitcoin or Argo B’s share price. Like global tyranny, for example. But hey, back to Argo B and Bitcoin… this is why freedom is so important, especially financial.
This is 2013 all over again. Mid cycle. Bull market. I recognise ends of bull cycles and this is not it unless the time really is different. This is about institutions making you look left whilst they move right.
Read Chomsky or Bernays and you will quickly realise how those in power, with real money, look at the rest of us - with contempt, and zero respect. Remember that markets function by taking most of the money out of most people’s hands most of the time. You want to beat that? Remember the following:
1. Don’t be lazy
2. Don’t be ignorant
3. Don’t be emotional
4. Don’t be impatient
“You’re not naive enough to think we live in a democracy, are you buddy?” - Gordon Gekko (from ‘Wall Street’, 1987)
Not financial advice.
Sorry for being almost aggressive in my tone but this board has become a bad version of Reddit due to many people not having a clue what they’re doing! Don’t ramp or deramp. Just analyse or at least learn from some brilliant minds on finTwit - far superior to mine, of course.
Wishing everyone all the best, including freedom and happiness. Liberty must never perish, and this includes your money. That’s what Bitcoin represents.
Pear1s: “6 months ago I shared my thoughts on Bitcoin, saying it would peak close to year end before entering a bear market in 2022. Some people mocked me as a fortune teller.
I notice the same people are now forecasting Bitcoin predictions of their own. Funny. How's your crystal balls?”
It says you only joined on 6th July. Maybe another account P?
BTC down 51% since highs
RIOT down 60% since highs
ARB down 63% since highs despite today’s run.
Argo Blockchain wasn’t just oversold it was pummelled! So anything below £1.15 is a bargain, and anything £1.40 and higher is overbought, though a BTC price reversal makes such a price perfectly reasonable. Someone said £1.30 on this thread? I said this to Pearls recently, too, when he suggested 75-80p was fair value (nope, not unless BTC drops significantly further from here, and I mean a lot).
The short version is I’ve bought like a loon this week because Argo B was being given away. Could be a short squeeze, too? Some serious volume and big buys today. Maybe something else going on? I haven’t been following closely recently I admit so if there’s news or even rumours (with sources) please do share.
Thanks for reading my waffling and have a great weekend everyone.
To Pearls,
You said: "From my own calculations I see the price falling back to the 75p - 80p range at which the shares are fair value.
I must stress that this is on the basis that the bitcoin price stays above 25,000 - if it falls much further, then ARB's own profitability is seriously damaged and they may face calls on their loans which are all based on bitcoin. There may be technical defaults on their loans if the bitcoin price falls to say 15,000 meaning they may have to pay cash to rectify matters, but cash flow seems to be very tight currently, despite the supposed mining levels per month.
Ignore the constant rampers, DYOR, and read the RNS's."
I agree with you regarding rampers, but I would add that de-rampers are no less damaging to anyone who thinks of such boards as places for shareholders, vast majority retail, to discuss their preferred stocks of interest or current holdings. Just as one may be encouraged to buy too high, one may be encouraged to sell too low.
It is very feasible that we see 75-80p (it's a free market), but no less feasible that we see £1+ in the very near term even without much BTC price movement. As you alluded to with your reference to $25k, BTC's price influences ARB's.
Let's analyse that comment. Those who specialise in trading Bitcoin can't even agree on whether the Grayscale unlock this time around will be bullish or bearish (I'm bullish and imo the GBTC unlock is when we climb, as short positioning is reduced). And BTC price predictions, in general, range between $12,000 and $220,000. So, to create a hypothetical scenario for Argo Blockchain if BTC is $25k or lower is relevant only as a risk assessment. But why $25k? In a bear market this is important, but we're not in a bear market. We're in a consolidation phase of the latest bull cycle. Therefore, suggesting such a scenario only drives unnecessary fear.
Your comment about valuation, however, is relevant in any cycle. Argo Blockchain is priced as a high growth tech stock, so if you can grab it cheap, well done. I would like to hear a more detailed case for a 75-80p SP. I would be happy to pay 10x revenue for such a stock in a bull run (cheaper than quite a few high growth US tech stocks, though they may have better balance sheets so one needs to compare case by case), which would put ARB at £500m market cap, some 40% higher than current SP = £1.30 per share. Anything below £1.30 is fair value imo. I have been buying on a huge scale relative to my overall portfolio since the price dropped below £1.25. Please note: Blockchain miners are particularly expensive in a bull market. In a bear market this changes considerably and any vulnerabilities, i.e. risks, will be exposed. Again, there is zero evidence this is the end of the bull cycle.
So I must ask:
1. Why 75-80p as "fair value" range, and compared to what?
2. Do you think the bull cycle is over?
3. Why $25k- and not, also, $50k+ - bull + bear case?
Hi guys,
I wrote a post on Mon at 22:17, in which I predicted the end of a consolidation period for OMI and either a breakout or break down, with the former being much more likely, within the next few days. I spoke of specific support and resistance levels. None of those mattered as they were broken easily , due to the fundamentals that drove OMI's SP like a rocket ship. Great stuff and so pleased for my fellow OMI shareholders.
My update today - please note, this is NOT financial advice, just the result of my TA - is to say that it appears as if we are entering another consolidation period that should complete latest 5th August but could be much sooner, especially if more news breaks during that time. If OMI has broken out by 05.08 I predict that we will hit resistance between 28 and 29p, where OMI should break out yet again towards ATH's or, if failing to break through resistance, return to the mid 20's and climb slowly before, in all likelihood, taking another run up by mid-late September. If however, OMI breaks down from current support levels (20-21p), what were resistance levels as listed in Monday's post will act as support instead.
Full disclosure: I opened a position in OMI a month ago, adding 50% on Monday. This was originally a trade but I had decided to become a LTH in OMI after reading some reports and watching several interviews with Brad George. Such is my conviction that this mining stock is akin to buying GGP at a steep discount, I chose not to sell a single share yesterday, even though I would have made a 90% profit - I always take a little off the top after such a run-up (esp as RSI was above 80). This holding makes up far too much of my investment portfolio but I'm YOLOing this one because I think this is a little nugget, in my humble opinion.
As stated earlier, none of this is financial advice, obviously.
All the best with wishes and luck.