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Hello guys,
IMO today's RNS is perfectly acceptable, and the current SP is, too. I just added to my position so I promise I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Current FY suggests circa £50m revenue by EoFY (I think - it has been a while since I have gone through revenue numbers), and the Bitmain Antminers (the 4,500 leased S19 and S19 pro's) appear to be contributing towards greater efficiency, so, combined with the Texas expansion enabled by the Galaxy Digital loan*, this bodes well - one hopes - for Peter Wall and his team. Meanwhile, the moves by China are good news for North American miners. I'm sure you know this already; nevertheless, here's a link to a recent Forbes article about this very thing:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/06/28/chinas-crackdown-on-bitcoin-mining-is-good-news-for-north-american-crypto-miners/
*I wrote a thread on Twitter a little while back as some people reacted badly to the relevant RNS
In my humble opinion the macro has never looked better for both North American miners and Bitcoin as a whole, despite the noise - always best to avoid the shouty types and usual BTC FUD. I believe it will remain, along with Ethereum and, possibly, the likes of Chainlink, Solana et al, the crypto asset of choice for most institutional investors who it seems are very much on board already, in principle for most and in practice for some, though this is clearly still a work in progress due to the politics and usual FUD as mentioned earlier. Adoption is increasing and that's the important thing long term.
Meanwhile, looking at Bitcoin on a technical level, there is an upward trend-line that began on 22nd June with support, then resistance established on 29th. Since then everything has fluctuated within these (short term) parameters, and, once combined with the longer descending wedge pattern that crosses them, it appears that by the 9th or 10th June Bitcoin will either break out or break down. I believe it will break OUT and rise as high as $50,000 (before going... somewhere - too speculative for now). I'm not alone in my predictions. Some well respected, and in my opinion two of the best, accessible seasoned traders (pro's) say the same re a $50,000 move before more volatility ahead as usual.
None of this is financial advice, obviously. Just sharing my thoughts.
P.S. Most of my Argo B numbers are from memory so plz let me know if I have shared any incorrect data.
I've re-checked and there's a slow-building bullish support around 13.4p. We closed slightly below that but it's minimal. It could break of course, but often before a breakout there will be a quick retest of that support as resistance, and if it holds then, especially with building volume, that is (could be, should be) very bullish.
Hi guys,
Some people talking about price due to the significant drop since February's peak. It looks like OMI was very overbought and is now in the very last stages of a descending wedge pattern before breaking out to the upside, where I expect initial resistance at 15.5p, then 16.2p, 17.45p and 18.6p (I haven't checked above this range). MACD indicates the very beginning of a price reversal, but there are a couple of slightly bearish indicators, too; however, I think they're current because they're completing an existing trend, so I'm not too concerned at time of writing.
Obviously, I can't guarantee the SP won't break down further but there is so much medium term historical volume support around 12.8-13p (and a few more recent larger buys around 13.5-14p) that a breakout looks more likely, and imminently (either way) - within 2 weeks maximum, possibly even just a few days. Something fundamental, whether specific to Orosur Mining or the spot gold price, could provide the catalyst.
N.B. All TA is based on probability not certainty, so whilst I hope this is useful, please don't take anything I've said as financial advice. I don't normally post such things but a few people seem quite focused on current SP.
All the best and looking forward to Brad George's webinar contribution tomorrow evening.
First time I’ve been optimistic about Bitcoin’s price for a while. The last 13 days of FUD around BTC were outrageous and mostly distortions of truth and manipulative narratives. Well, it’s possible the price will go up and then fall again in the shorter timeframe but I’m a buyer here, albeit steadily. Not a screaming buy for me but lots of very positive signs in price movement, volume, etc.
@djwall1s That's true, but just like a producer of copper or gold will find their SP's impacted by the prices of copper or gold, a blockchain miner / investor (even when the are intelligently diversified) will be impacted by the price fluctuations of (one of) their main revenue stream(s).
“ RIOT and MARA up 18%
ARB will follow suit.”
As a holder of both ARB and RIOT, but not MARA, I will be shocked if ARB goes up as RIOT has today, which I bought yesterday for $21 once I saw enough in the BTC charts to convince me to trade (no guarantee but subtle signs as I posted here yesterday). The reason is that when RIOT was sold off like crazy, ARB found more resistance - a positive for ARB on the way down but less exciting on the way up. This is why ARB didn’t spike at the end of today whilst RIOT has. ARB is a good company doing good things the right way in my opinion. If you want quick money buy anything oversold. ARB was never oversold, but it was overbought (in terms of trends not valuation / fundamentals). I hope this helps anyone who’s confused over the “underperformance” of ARB.
Have a fab weekend. Bitcoin, touch wood, is looking good now, but still some key resistance levels to break on the way up so let’s hope it goes well for all of us who believe in this company
I’m liking the direction of Bitcoin right now. It’s subtle but something is there...
I predicted Aave’s breakout a few days ago. I hope I’m right about this one.!
Also bought Riot for $21. I put my money where my mouth is :)
My prediction: Interest rates are not going up. From the Fed to the IMF, their fear is a lack of inflation because they think it will be transitory. Perhaps that is why
tech futures are up and SPX / DJ are both negative. European indices lack tech. Inflation is bad for tech. Something doesn’t add up - I bought a lot more ARB this morning to average down. Happy to buy the fear... I think a rabbit will be pulled out of a hat. The US needs tech more than ever, especially with pipelines being compromised. They cannot let tech companies fail. Just my humble opinion of course...
Riot is down 16% after hours. Argo B may open as low as £1.10. If it does I’m buying the crater, since this is more than a dip now, thanks to the FeckNoKing. I don’t even have any more words for what he tweeted tonight. Selfishly I hope BTC stays down until the morning and moves after I’ve bought my additional ARB shares. The upside is I was right about Aave breaking out. That went on a tear. Let’s hope it’s in alphabetical order and ARB then BTC will follow... wow. Just, wow.
Hi Stalker,
From Peter Wall’s latest update (May, pt 1) - https://youtu.be/LmzWD85jEBE
Mined 163 BTC in April
Holding 963 BTC
Rev £6.7m / $9m in April
+85% mining margin
Due to the palpable fear this morning, I thought I'd share the following (however, I'm not a financial adviser - your money, your risk!):
Just like any other sector, crypto stocks are impacted positively and negatively by the sector in which they operate. When the copper price rises or falls, for example, copper-producing stocks should move with it, since profits are impacted by price. However, where a stock in that sector underperforms or over-performs it's important to establish why. Contrary to popular opinion the market is only occasionally irrational - mostly it's reflective and predictive at the same time.
Understanding the company I am investing in, even as a trade, is important. One of the reasons many investors panic quickly is because they look at one thing too much without understanding key metrics elsewhere. The less you understand something, the scarier it becomes when things happen that you didn't expect to happen. Right now, the Bitcoin price has been impacted by a combination of FUD (and who benefits from that?) and massively over-levered traders getting liquidated. There is too much greed in the market right now but there's also a lot of liquidity (money printer go brrr + lockdown impacts on usual spending). We could also be dealing with tax deadlines, renewed interest rate fears in the US affecting tech stocks, etc.
In the case of Argo Blockchain, the stock is trading at 30x revenues, which is expensive, on a par with the likes of Palantir, Nio, etc. Is it overbought? Yes IMO. But it's a crypto stock. This is new. So how does one value such a stock? This is a fast growing company within a fast-growing space that's in a bull market. Volatility is therefore also expected, especially at these levels.
The problem with more speculative plays, especially crypto and related stocks, is that too many traders / investors are buying on leverage, and the whales know it, so they can short a crypto asset like BTC or ETH or even stocks where the same over-levered traders are playing, thus they liquidate those people's positions. Unfortunately, when there are too many of them or they are too big, a whole sector of a market, sometimes the entire market, is impacted, especially if other traders see what's coming, stop-losses are triggered, etc.
The fundamentals of Argo Blockchain are excellent IMO, and we are still in a bull market. Unless this time really is different, Bitcoin will be snapped up by more of the big boys (I'm guessing early-mid June latest) and the price will set new ATH's before this post-halving bull cycle comes to an end. Crypto stocks like ARB, RIOT, etc. should therefore rise and fall with the price, loosely. This is why I have a growing position in ARB as I buy on the way down, and a smaller but growing position in RIOT (US-listed only). It ain't over yet IMO, but there are no guarantees. I remain optimistic myself but again I'm not a financial adviser so your money, your risk, etc. etc.
This is typical, unfortunately. When more and more funds and ETFs are being created for Bitcoin whilst retail investors are actively discouraged to buy the very same asset, there's usually a reason. Sometimes it's genuine because we all approach risk/reward differently according to our own knowledge/education, financial situation and threshold for volatility, and sometimes there's motive. Ask yourself, are institutional investors walking away or adding their clients, even at low percentages, as a part of a diversified portfolio? If you know that you don't need Bloomberg or CNBC or anyone else to advise whether it's right or wrong to buy something because actions speak louder than words, especially when we compare the actions of experts to the words of experts. Remember that Bitcoin is a disruptor and disruptors are always attacked, especially when the price entry point is less attractive for ii's who want to buy before the retail investors, not the other way round. I proceed with caution, whether I'm a bull or a bear or even just a curious passer by. There's a lot of FUD in finance. Personally, I live by the words of Dr Gregory House: "Everybody lies." Not everybody, of course, but a LOT of people sadly do. Even the experts.
I’m confused by all these price detachment messages by people. Compare the BTC chart for the last month against the charts for ARB and RIOT. They aren’t like for like down to specific valuations, but the general price action is the same. It’s loose but it’s aligned to an extent because there are still many traders in these stocks using them as proxies for Bitcoin. Saying that, the investors are probably increasing and the short term / day traders decreasing because BTC is moving sideways and has for some time. But one move back up, which I still believe is happening soon and I’m not alone, and they’ll be back because ARB and RIOT will be shiny again.
I can’t stop you from feeling what you’re feeling but to be demoralised now makes less sense to me than being demoralised a few weeks ago. It’s just about recognising the charts (if you’re trading shorter term) to know when to buy or sell. I’ve bought and sold Argo about four times now, every time with profit, to varying degrees. As a trader this is useful but as an investor I’m in for the long haul because Argo Blockchain is a good company and fundamentals always get recognised in the end, as long as the price paid is proportionate to either actual fair value or, especially in the case of tech, long term market sentiment.
Re ARB the price had to come down, just as Riot Blockchain did across the Atlantic. However, if I’m right about BTC $58,100 resistance levels, the next move should be up not down. With ARB’s similar equivalent resistance around £1.60, there seems more reward than risk from here. I bought back in last Friday and topped up a little on the pullback this morning. BTC is volatile but unless someone with clout wants to push the price down for a while, I personally remain optimistic and am putting my money where my mouth is.
That’s my long-winded way of trying to re-moralise you, Poptimist. :) But do what is best for you obvs as no-one can guarantee anything and I don’t know your threshold for volatility.
I don’t think it’s that. Riot did the same thing. Compare Riot and Argo charts for last 6 months and it’s an almost identical move. The problem is that both were overbought and Riot at least was massively volatile due to huge amount of options trading. I sold Argo too soon and Riot too late but made a profit on both. I would buy both now as they’ve pretty much consolidated but I chose Argo because it’s a better company IMO. But both are loosely aligned to BTC price movement so unless you think BTC is going to correct before it’s next move up - I don’t but could be wrong of course - then this could be a good entry point, but with a degree of caution. :)