Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Hi Chaebol
I agree re many pros calling it wrong. Not all pro's did, e.g. Gareth Soloway, and I agreed with him at the time as my TA matched his. In fact, I was surprised BTC bounced that fast as my original prediction was, like Gareth's, 48-50k then 20k before resumption of the bull cycle. We didn't come down to back test. When I saw it break higher I feared I'd missed out (didn't FOMO, though). Re fear & greed index here it is off the charts but is rising (lows were 10, I think, now 23).
Re January disappointment, all stocks, but especially high growth tech, were impacted by mostly macro / policy concerns - a little Omicron risk-off perhaps, but mostly USD/bonds/tapering/interest rates. I think it's mostly noise because the Fed can't afford to make such huge debt more expensive, nor risk a market collapse - serious juggling going on behind the scenes. I'm optimistic because Jay Powell is normally a dove but cautiously because he has hawks around him and since November has turned a little hawkish himself. Markets are clearly unsettled. 2022 will be very volatile and with some speedy cycles. Passive investing is pretty much dead for the time being.
However, all of the above has been priced in unless things get worse suddenly, so many growth assets have been oversold. I've been buying high growth tech over the last week and I'm up 7 out of 8 holdings... I won't tell you which one is still red (*eye roll*). As for BTC and, consequently, ARB, the bears have absolutely hammered down that chart in the last hour with extraordinary volume so it not only dropped hard but stayed below a key trendline at $42.3k. Bulls now fighting for $42k again. Meh. I knew we'd back test, but I didn't see that coming. As both an Argo Blockchain and Bitcoin bull that was horrible! Impressive. But horrible. Grrrr the bears. Even my iron stomach is churning a little.
I don’t deny that, and I’d say $53k for that confirmation. You’re right to be cautious. I call early. I have a very high risk tolerance (some would call it stupidity), but in a bull cycle I don’t see this as a 50/50 shot. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Most people don’t have an iron stomach and I appreciate that.
If my TA is correct the bull run has just resumed, literally, minutes ago. $42.8k holding and looking strong, just climbed above $43k… but this is a very early call so do your due diligence, NFA, etc. etc.
You’re right to pick me up on my choice of words. I should have said “my methodology” / “my charts”, etc. In fact, charts would have been more accurate. My apologies. You have enough info, and that’s fine. I’ pretty sure I know what it means, and I’m fine with that, too.
@Windows 345 Correction re the $36k claim. You said you didn't recognise my buy and sell signals. Remove $36k from that because it was an erroneous trendline I had moved accidentally a while back. As I switched strategies, I forgot to remove it entirely. So, yes, if $40k breaks (highly unlikely but possible I guess) we could drop as low as $29-30k. Nothing in between for me either. May not have been you that mentioned that one, but someone asked me about 36k. Apologies - clearly an error.
Just updated my BTC/USD TA. Without me backing up any TA-based claims, I cannot prove anything, and I don't share my TA with people. Therefore, if BTC drops as you predict, I will come back here and apologise (as I have before when I've been wrong). If I'm right and the end of the correction is imminent (actually, I believe it completed a few days ago and this is the consolidation before the final move higher before the end of the current bull cycle) I will come back and declare myself, well, not an idiot. ;)
However, I will tell you I'm mostly self-taught, and began in 2019, though I do follow some excellent seasoned pro's - one just recently confirmed my position in PDD at $48 was very good and said he loves the weekly candle - as my biggest issue is when to sell so it's not too early or too late. I'm still learning, though I'm better than I used to be.
So, from all that, you may deduce that I'm clueless (the idiot, then ;) ) at least comparatively, and that's fine. I genuinely don't mind what others think about me or my IQ, trading skills, etc., as long as I make a profit, which I usually do these days.
I wish everyone the best and if I ever accidentally mislead re price because I'm wrong - my opinion is *never* advice - I apologise profusely. My goal is to share "my take", that's all.
TheChuz
“Yep that's exactly how most are seeing it if it breaks 40k we are done for (for a short period of time). Fortunately 40k is holding up but we keep having staged pull downs. If one is big enough to take us under 40k I would expect an avalanche of auto sells, at that point turn off for 3 to 6 months.”
Mine isn’t so far off. As I said yesterday, $40k must hold. I have very solid support at $36k however and will be staggered if that breaks at all, let alone easily. I can’t rule out breaking $40k but I have medium term trendlines suggesting this is holding well… for now. I’d have preferred solid support at $42-42.5k but re-test of that looks likely at the mo so still cautiously optimistic.
Re ARB I’ll re-check my charts. AB claimed his analysis found 65p will happen but I have nothing below 75-78p (from memory hence why I’ll check again and update here, and I assume this will apply if BTC does fall to $36k).
Haha, I'm afraid not. Explained why further below as I was asked a short while ago.
Re charts: If BTC doesn't hold $40k all bets are off because all my trendlines are broken so I have to review what I've missed. As I said, holding $41k is key, and this is because failure to hold $41k pushes against $40k base again, which, if hit more, weakens at an increasing rate. On the other end, breaking approx $42500 tonight with strong support would be very encouraging. I'll feel more bullish at $44500 and above. For now, I'm cautiously optimistic, and overall bullish for the next 6-12 months. Jan 2023 is where this bull cycle ends (latest) according to my TA.
You're the first person who's ever asked me that - I expected this ages ago but it never happened, until now. I can tell you what I use - 1 EMA, 2 SMAs, RSI, ADX, MACD, long and short term trendlines and the occasional additional supportive tool - but not how I apply them. My TA is quite unconventional (you'd laugh at my many multicoloured trendlines, for a start!) and what I do allows me to stay ahead of the curve in certain ways, despite the odds being stacked against me. Posting now and then with TA updates is my way of sharing what I'm prepared to, usually after opening or closing a position.
Hi guys,
Haven't posted for a while. I was out of ARB for ages. I see a lot of frustrated and concerned people posting so I thought I'd update you to let you know that I started buying again last week and completed my last buy on Friday. ARB is now my third biggest position.
I have put together two comprehensive charts, both of which I have updated recently - one for ARB, the other for BTC/USD - the latter took me hours because I'm very exact with my trendlines these days after a few horrible calls last year, including two for ARB (sorry), and my chart covers 2011-2021.
Everything I'm looking at re BTC says $40,000 is the low so I think we just bottomed. To bounce and hold above 41k is essential now and this will be a nasty fight because the smart money knows this well (I'm not including myself in that group), but if this plays out as expected then we go higher. Bulls and bears fighting it out hard I see, but I see bullish signals...
6 up - Argo one of my two reds, but I believe this is due to climb very soon. However, ARB, like BTC, and more so probably, will meet a lot of resistance.
I have been wrong about ARB before (sorry, again), but after updating my charts, I am cautiously optimistic. However, we do need BTC to hold $41k to climb higher... if it can, TA points to a breakout quite soon (I see 17-21 Jan as end of consolidation period - if it hasn't broken out by then it may drop, but latter looks unlikely). Apologies if I'm wrong. I just want to reassure the disillusioned!
P.S. Despite my many flaws, previous UK-listed calls in 2021 included:
SOS at 13p, called the lows, currently circa 30-35p
OMI at 12-13p, called the lows (more than doubled the next day due to excellent drilling results), came down over time, now back up around 14-15p
EAAS at 12p, called the lows, currently 15-16p and climbing nicely for now.
PDD (CN - US listed) at $47-48, called the lows (didn't post this publicly), currently $55-56 and climbing nicely for now.
P.S. 2... whilst writing this, I think $41k just held after a lot of battling with the bears in the $40600-40900 range. Encouraging, but more resistance to come for sure.
I don't believe this is correct information, but only because it's out of date. Based on recent trading activity this may apply to my post now, too, but my point is the percentages you quoted appear to be taken from eEnergy's website, which is out of date (their site states 9th October) because it precedes the 22.10.21 RNS (see below).
RNS dated 22nd October shows Canaccord increased their holdings to 10.9925% (rounded up, this is the 11% referenced in your post below) - SEE https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=202110221144189783P
Meanwhile, as referenced earlier, this is eEnergy's site page, last updated 9th October:
https://eenergyplc.com/securities-in-issue-percentage-of-shares-not-in-public-hands-and-significant-shareholders/
'The Company holds no shares in treasury
% of shares not in public hands
Percentage of shares not in public hands: 29.93%
Significant or Substantial Shareholders % of Existing Share Capital
Derek Myers 12.98%
Canaccord Genuity Inc 8.97%
Octopus Investments Nominees Limited 7.17%
Ian Mckenna 6.02%
Harvey Sinclair 6.02%
Stella Murphy 5.25%
David Nicholl 3.84%
River & Mercantile 3.04%"
N.B. Based on the prices for which shares have been changing hands over the last week, I also think it's a mix of buys and sells, which could be related to board updates or ii movement. I tend to ignore sales as selling could be for all kinds of reasons, including taxes and BoD changes. If insiders or ii's buy, however, it's usually a good sign (suggesting good SP value and/or good fundamentals).
Correct. Also, TA suggest lows around 9.5-10p per share, and we’ve already hit that, so risk/reward massively in our favour now. I reached out to the underrated but brilliant Jason Burack in the US recently as he’s in Sandstorm Gold ($sand) and said he should take a look at Orosur, too. This, in my humble opinion, is one heck of a find. I was buying like a kid eating chocolate eggs at Easter after I did a deep dive but capital isn’t infinite so I’ve had to take off the top since the 27p peak in July. If the market understood what we do, the SP would be a lot higher. That’s fine. I need to sell a few % of some other holdings anyway so I’m happy to see this SP stay in the <16p area. When it climbs beyond that I imagine I’ll start FOMOing because this is life-changing stuff if expectations are even close to fulfilled. TA suggests a lot of resistance so I’m not concerned, but 9.5p+ is a screaming buy for me. Market agrees apparently. NFA of course…
I agree the price has come down too hard relative to BTC’s drop. It should have only hit 90p if BTC dropped to $44k ish, but if it’s any consolation, RIOT dropped by a similar percentage at around the same time - from $37 to $24. I predicted this sort of move for ARB but I also predicted BTC would drop further, hence the call. Maybe it will but support above $45k looks good so far so I missed the boat this time. Happy to wait. I want to see BTC resume it’s bull run in 2022 before buying back in, which still looks very much on the cards but I’m not confident enough just yet (in terms of TA). GLA.
Hi there,
I’ve done my best to analyse this as a proxy for BTC only and I may be wrong so this is NFA.
Firstly, ARB, RIOT, MARA all got hit this week. This is because traders know BTC has begun C of ABC correction wave - I am no longer in ARB but I follow BTC price regularly, hence this comment. Likely worst case (unless something external sends it lower, but so far that looks unlikely) this correction is due to end around Fri 10th at $43,200 approx. It could start climbing earlier and from a higher point but you’re concerned so I will be conservative.
If BTC descends to $43200 this is a <14% correction from the price that it was at 16.30 on Wed 8th Dec. That would put ARB at 90-95p as a low (matching the drop in %) .
However, I think ARB will rise from there if it even goes that low (£1 is a psychological resistance level so it may hold). Then, as BTC is due to rise to $55000-56000 (which should be by the end of the year) before dipping and rising towards $60000 in 2022, and likely much higher, this puts ARB at (95p + 28+% to match % of BTC rise to $55500) £1.25 by EOY and £1.35 by early 2022, where ARB and BTC should then rise further still.
Please note, this is the furthest out I dare predict, and I could be wrong, and what Argo Blockchain does specifically will affect its SP, thus creating volatility either positive or negative on top of the typical volatility of BTC.
When I have bought at too high a price, I dollar cost average where I can but that requires more funds and confidence the SP will rise. Again that’s just me, so NFA etc. etc.
Hi Gooders
I have to put my trading hat on to reply but we are officially oversold on the long term trend now, and clearly oversold on the short timeframes. The stock was overbought for some time, and once the 50 day MA crossed the shorter averages in mid September it was a question of how much the price would correct. It has dropped below the long term mean average of 13.5p, which isn’t surprising but if it doesn’t bounce back soon that would be very strange.
The SP should have found more support at around 15p (huge spike in buying volume there, in early October) but it continued to fall, probably because of more macro concerns that have nothing to do with EAAS. Add the recent silliness over variants, etc. and sellers have probably panic sold either for cash or for other stocks currently climbing. This, for me, is a wonderful opportunity to buy that fear. Others would say you don’t catch a falling knife…
I daren’t predict but, assuming the entire market doesn’t crash I will be surprised if we haven’t at least returned to the mean by Christmas. NFA yada yada yada.
ICL1960. A dividend? Now?? A young company with this kind of growth but currently making a profit of under £1m should be putting money back into the business, not paying shareholders a dividend. No different to similar stocks in the US, and note that their shareholders understand this, which is why US stocks in this sector do well if they’re run properly (EAAS very much appears to be). How sad if most UK shareholders don’t appreciate this.
If EAAS growth continues at this rate this will be a dividend stock in good time I’m sure but not yet, and it shouldn’t be.
I hope someone can help me out.
I see a company with revenue of £13.6m, up 200% from FY2020 £4.5m.
In a high growth sector.
I see a company that made £0.8m EBITDA from £1.5m loss in FY2020.
In a high growth sector.
I see a young company with huge growth potential, already being realised, trading at 12p, giving it a market cap of £44m.
3x revenue.
When the company made 200% more YoY.
In a high growth sector.
Unless there’s something major happening that I don’t know, then I don’t have a clue why this stock not much higher. But I’m buying as much as I can.
And until someone tells me to stop, I will keep adding at this absolutely ridiculous bargain basement SP.
P.S. If Canaccord Genuity really are buying at these levels (as others seem to be suggesting), I’m reassured further. Canaccord Genuity is amgood firm IMO as I’ve seen them listed as owners of good quality smaller cap stocks that other firms seem to miss until the growth story is obvious. I’m very happy to be buying with them.