RE: Outstanding - a mine in its own right and £1+ realistically within reach10 Nov 2025 10:06
Q, you're right about BHP and the fact they didn't make an offer in recent times is almost certainly due to the fact they're no longer interested. Apparently, Newmont aren't interested in Cascabel, but are interested in ExCo, so perhaps they'd be sellers once ExCo has been spun-off.
In my view both are sellers and given their investments are, in the scheme of things, peanuts, I don't imagine they're that fussed about holding out for top dollar. If this is the case a buyer, assuming it's Jiangxi, would have no problem achieving more than 50.99% approval, particularly if the offer was on an agreed basis.
If you haven't done so, have a listen to that interview with McMullen. He explains very clearly how he approaches M&A and when/why it's best to accept an offer which may not be as high as people would like. I believe DV is cut from the same cloth.
Personally, I think DV and co will attempt to deliver as much value as possible, but will not try to over-egg the pudding.