Naivety?20 Sep 2023 08:03
As you would expect, SC seemed pretty confident at the Denver conference and in his own mind appears to have a "clear roadmap", even if we don't. I wonder if this is a result of what has happened during the past 12 months of the SR?
He has told us there's plenty of interest in Cascabel and that numerous parties have signed ndas and some are still using the data room (I know some people think he's lying, but I'm not one of them). Have the most interested potential buyers said to him, " we're very keen to move forward with Cascabel, but you've really got to get the various permits/IPA etc in place before we move"?
SC is completely confident he'll get them, but knows it's going to take another six months. The feedback has given him sufficient confidence to believe he has plenty of serious buyers, hence the optimism.
As for the naivety, did they start the SR too early in the belief they could persuade people to move without the de-risking? Did he think he had enough evidence to persuade people of the case without actually having the various signed agreements? If this was the case, it really was naive wishful thinking.