Member Info for adamstallone

noggers&warrenbuffetisrich
i'm 48, so my ISA only needs to grow enough to pay my bills for 7 years then i can drawdown my SIPP, which is also entirely TLW shares. I would much rather we get the SP up without a war, but thats in the lap of the gods now...

This is better than the EuroMillions though, here you get to make informed decisions, to some extent. It's a gamble, to be sure, we don't know the future 100%, but a little research improves the odds and makes the gains so much sweeter.

I'm hoping to hang in here as long as Mrd, maybe longer.
If and when this reaches 105p I could retire (if I cash out) so I'm strongly motivated to wait. I see TLW as currently a little unstable, certainly full of potential, but confusingly underpriced, and it can't all be down to the recent turmoil, IMO.

I love a good conspiracy theory, particularly because some have proven accurate over time. I'd like to look back at TLW and smile at some point. Right now I'm a tad anxious but loving the ride. I've never had so much money come and go on a daily basis before! Dreams of Bentley Continentals (one each, Mrd, as promised) and never having to worry about money again as long as I live...other than the lottery, where else can you get that chance?

maybe, but it's more exciting than a cash ISA...

Further to my previous post, who got it right/wrong RE: TLW on & post 9th Dec:

Urraca - optimistic 11th Dec @48p - correct!

CaptainStanley - @39.6p said "sentiment has been boiling over and folks have let it get to them I think. A night of quiet reflection and then stability and a sharp rebound in the morning" - spot on!
Also, CaptainStanley - 11th Dec @48p said "mainly upside for a while" - Nailed it!

Mohh - TLW @44p (& dropping) said he would buy in at 10p, then @39.99p on 9th Dec said "last chance to get out" but hindsight tells us it was the best time to get IN for, to date, 60% growth!!

mannan - when TLW was @44p and still dropping said "30p next" - partly right, it did continue to drop, but only to 38p

donotpanic - @44p and still dropping on 9th Dec said GENEL and PREM also recovered (from similar price plummets) and TLW would get back to £1. - partly correct so far, and hopefully will be 100% correct during January!

NeilHannon - 11th Dec @48p (& rising) "now all the mugs have bought back in I can see this dropping back below 40p", so a swing and a miss there! Those 'mugs' made anywhere between 33-60% profit in the fortnight following that post, sweet!

I'm in and staying in. I need to at least see through til 15th Feb now that Mrd staked his rep on good news, so I'm commited!!

I choose to believe that someone buying today will profit by 50% within six weeks, possibly a lot quicker. In anyone's book that gain in that timeframe is a winner. I sincerely wish all ENQ shareholders a 50% jump, too.

My ISA is currently up £880, and I've promised myself a £400 camera, a £4000 tv and about a £4000 Jaguar Sovereign when the profits roll in. Clearly it's a bit premature, but I've been eyeing up the 8k tellies in Currys…

life's for living!!

whether you're a pessimist or an optimist won't change the result...
...an optimist just has a better time of it

Thanks for that. I can see the appeal of a 50%+ gain!

Once I'm done with TLW I'll drift over to ENQ and have a gander. There's every chance that ENQ will have done whatever it's going to do by then and I'll have missed the opportunity, if so there will be another gold mine just around the corner...

Doubt it..

If we see 100p in January I'll be a happy bunny :-)

Have a great Xmas everyone, forget the numbers and enjoy some human contact for a bit...

MrD
Do it! All in! Misery loves company!

deebo12

I appreciate the guidance.

Morningstar assessed TLW at 101p Fair Value Estimate on Friday, and they have a 5 year average of 1.04 price/FVE, so according to their objective number crunching the price is being pulled towards 105p. Of course, no one can predict the future absolutely, but we can act on what we feel is 'most likely' to happen. They have no skin in the game, no hidden agenda, and they've been in the biz a long time. They could be wrong, they could be right. I'm all in, I'm not confident of the future, but I'm ever hopeful. Bullet proof optimism. If it plummets again, I'll just have to sit tight with 291,149 cheap shares and wait it out until they recover.

sankeys

Yes, the maths posted look wrong. I didn't give you the up to date position, which is this:
I started an ISA Dec 2018 with Fidelity, and added all my little pensions into a SIPP there in spring 2019. I only invested in funds before Oct 2019, dabbled in one equity, made a small loss. Got a tip (late Aug) that Lloyds was likely to rise. Watched with interest until 15th Oct, gutted. I had 144.5k at that point, sold it all, ended up with 132k on Nov 5th. Before the infamous Monday 9th Dec I'd had ups and downs peaking at 150.5k. Mon 9th took me tumbling to 137k, I re-jigged at great risk and when it touched 68p on Friday 13th I had 214k, hence the whooping with joy and relief. Today i'm at 183k, 51k up on Nov 5th. Happy.
But now the burning question is, should I stay or should I go? If I stay there'll be no trouble, if I stay it may well double!

This very realistically could be the only time I will invest in a questionable asset. One with this much potential. If I stay and they get bought out north of £1 I will be able to retire. If I leave and dabble successfully for years of smaller net gains I may eventually reach the same point.

NH
Fair point, chasing losses is a mug's game, I agree. My net gains up to 5th Nov were zero, playing with funds rather than shares. The ups and downs were slow, most had no spread (great!) but one had a significant spread which I didn't even realise until I sold (at a loss due to the spread) and concluded it would be an age before I could buy back in. Shares offered a 'time lapse' version with much faster ups and downs, so if I choose wisely (the only flaw in my plan!) I could accelerate the growth of my SIPP&ISA to the point I could retire by 2026.

'it's probably not a wise move putting life savings into one stock'

very true! I plan to diversify somewhat after the Tullow roller coaster concludes, one way or the other.

I was diversified before the 71% nose dive (didn't get out, no stop-loss, wasn't watching because I have a 9to5 office job), but then in desperation sold everything else I had and bought in on the rise (42p, 49p, 51p) which successfully averaged me down. I started with 132k total on Nov 5th (my life savings), 17k in TLW@137p which became 5k, sold BP and BANCO and ended up with 312596 shares of TLW @48p average. Whooping with relief and joy and dreams of buying a Bentley by Friday close. Saw the drop to 58p Monday and sold in panic. Later saw it was 63p and bought it all back. I confess this because I'm green and richard for selling low and buying high, undoing much of the good that came before. I lost 35k that day. Significantly more than a year's salary for me. I was in shock. I read the post about Mondays not being good for TLW and vowed to get out Friday afternoon to avoid the next heartbreak. I decided not to in the end, hoping for good news about Carapa, and feeling general confidence on this BB about the future. I'm enjoying learning about share and trading, I knew nothing before this year, but my pension is on the line, so it's preying on my mind.

Is everyone pro bar NH?

I've been awake since 5am scrolling though this BB trying to get a read on Monday morning likely movement. I'm fretting over the fate of my investment, probably gaining yet more grey. TBH I still don't know! I'm optimistic, otherwise I'd cash out. My life savings are riding on this and it feels a lot like trying a bungee jump without really knowing if the operators have done the necessary safety checks. I don't have a stop-loss in place, but wish I had...

So this announcement wasn't about Carapa, then?
Is there likely to be an announcement about Carapa this year now?

I can't get that link to work, I think my work server is picky about unfamiliar websites...

It doesn't all hinge on Carapa, does it? I was hoping this would slowly but surely recover to 137p where I foolishly bought in originally. :-(