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Sorry forgot to explain why €300m is disappointing.

We had 72m H1 and guidance then that with VISIBLE earnings H2 would better that. For me that means orders already placed. Then add in the minimum 150m from DHSC and that should be 300m.
Were that the figure I have to ask what the hell have the sales team been doing between July and December?

As ever a good read from Tay. The comparison with Abcams mkt cap gives particular food for thought.
The revenue figures for 2020 seem cautious to me. I really don’t know what to expect from these figures. Whatever they are they are undoubtedly going to look stunning when written down. Remember the comparable figure in brackets from 2019 will be €13m and even the H1 2020 figure of €72m will be dwarfed.
For me though €300m = slightly disappointed.
€350m = happy with that.
€400m = get in!!!
€500m = WooHoo, they matched my most optimistic expectations.

The key thing is how will the market react (not same day but over following 3 or4 weeks), and I feel that GM really has to give clearer guidance to brokers if they are to attract more institutional investors. At the moment fund managers looking at Numis broker note have target SPs ranging from 450p to £34.

Mendip, I’m not sure how experienced you are with investing so forgive me if I’m telling you what you know.

To compare different company valuations you need 5o take into account number of shares on issue, shareprice and therefore market cap. Should Ncyt reach £26 that does not mean they have same value as AAL because AAL have far more shares on issue.
An easier way to compare is to look at the Earnings per share (eps). This figure is given with results.
For Ncyt the eps in H1 2020 was €0.61 or 55p.
For AAL the eps in H1 2020 was 46p.

FY 2019 AAL had eps of 288p. With Ncyt forecast 2020 revenues of £300m, and some hopeful of £500m this will cause strong uplift in their eps. 220p or even 300p eps is quite possible.
So if AAL trades at £26 on eps of 288p you can see how Ncyt could reach the targets you quote if they achieve similar.
That said, I am aware these are companies in 2 different sectors and there are other factors to take into account when valuing them, but you asked about AAL.

Ncyt will release a Trading Update late Jan, similar to previous years. These are not the final results which will probably be released sometime in April and Ncyt will advise the date in advance.

Varian Medical Systems?

Hi porky, on a similar theme this was something I pointed out early Dec.

“ February 17th, the SP hit a scary intraday high of 217p.
April 9th, having surpassed that previous high it touched 517p. A multiple of 2.36 times the previous high.
It then took an age to pass that previous high, but when it finally did in October it reached £12.25. A multiple of 2.36 times the previous high!!

So if this next run were to reach a new high, and it were to repeat the 2.36 multiple, we are looking at the next peak hitting £29 plus.”

In a week when the only released news was of Blackrock reducing their holding there as been a clear sea change in sentiment to Ncyt this week.
Yes there will be pre Trading Update buyers with Fomo, but I can’t help feeling that Mr Market has finally realised that Covid isn’t going to disappear just because we now have vaccines.
In fact they may even have worked out that the best way to prevent Covid spreading rapidly again is to keep testing for years to come.
And once they realise that they will see how well Ncyt has positioned itself to lead the fight against this awful virus.

Hmm, maybe I’m in a minority here, but I can’t stand SH3 and his incessant ramping posts. I can tell when he’s back by the large amount of green filtered boxes. He posts as Bunze on advfn and it looks like he’s ramping Syme atm.

Certainly can get chaotic. September 18th they released Trading Update, which saw SP hit 250p intraday having started at 92.5p. Volume was 2.5m that day compared to 102k today.
Worth reading the HY results in November to see the number of potential good news Trading Updates on the horizon that could cause a similar reaction.

Apologies that first figure should have been 219p.

The point remains that although £29 may sound rampy now, anyone who suggested that it could more than double the previous highs also sounded rampy but clearly proved to be correct.
And more importantly for me, the fundamentals of the company also back it up.

Okay proper paid up chartists may want to look away now, but....

February 17th, the SP hit a scary intraday high of 217p.
April 9th, having surpassed that previous high it touched 517p. A multiple of 2.36 times the previous high.
It then took an age to pass that previous high, but when it finally did in October it reached £12.25. A multiple of 2.36 times the previous high!!

So if this next run were to reach a new high, and it were to repeat the 2.36 multiple, we are looking at the next peak hitting £29 plus.

A load of nonsense? Maybe, but that price is pretty close to my January SP prediction.

Food for thought.

I have to assume you wouldn’t appoint a broker known for its ability of carrying out placings that bring US investors on board, unless you were 100% confident FDA approval will be granted.

Peter Barnet, you are not telling the full story about gfrd in your comparison are you. Because of those thousands of employees they have, they only operate at a margin of 1.5%. And because of this they are loss making. That £150m will quickly whittle away if things don’t improve.
I’ll stick with Ncyt thanks.

I presume journo was given brief to come up with another angle on the government Covid orders being corrupt or untested etc. Add in a few rentaquotes from opposition MPs and job done.
However If you read the Nov 16 R&D Update, whilst it’s clear there have been issues, it is also clear they have already addressed.

“As Novacyt's NPT system continues to be deployed across the NHS, and globally, this improvement in workflow efficiency for COVID-19 testing is expected to make the system one of the quickest and easiest to use PCR platforms in its class.”

Tomorrow’s chip paper as they used to say, tho not sure how that works digitally!

Numis 1365p
SP Angel 1463p
Average of those 2 is 1414p.

I had assumed the Bourse were just using average until I realised they are quoting that figure in Euros.
Sorry doesn’t really add anything. Hopefully news that causes broker upgrades will make these targets redundant.

Sharedealer, could I request that you get dressed a bit earlier, because looking at the chart it’s quite clear that you didn’t put them on until 8.30 this morning!

Looking ahead at SP Angels 2022 forecast, gives further evidence as to how absurd the current market cap is. This is when the current ramped up testing is expected to be over and things settle down to normal business. It also comes off the back of fairly conservative 2020 & 2021 predictions.

So going into 2022, they believe Ncyt will have £316m in the bank. They forecast for that coming year revenue will be £126m, gross profit £101m and eps 91p. So at current Sp we would be trading on a PE of 7.5 with cash backing equating to 450p per share.

And that is based on conservative predictions and takes no account of the Q series gaining any traction.

So when the shorters tell you that this won’t last and you question why you’re still holding, keep in mind that even if those fairly bearish forecasts do happen, the company is still ridiculously cheap.
And if anyone mentions that the forecasts further out are lower, I know, but I place little value in predictions that far down the line.

Can’t believe we haven’t had an after hours Rns about Sharedealer putting his lucky pants back on. It’s obviously market sensitive.
I shall be at my screen 7.00am as GM will clearly want to inform the wider market of this good news.

Roley, I take it from your Strong Buy sentiment that you actually think these analysts are completely wrong. However by not completing your sentence you leave yourself open to people assuming you are just another cheap deramper, which I don’t believe you are.

...... and I forgot to say this isn’t the first time we’ve seen this disconnect between Sp and how well the company is doing. £2 plus back to ~70p was painful. £5+ down to £2 odd made no sense at all. But each time it corrected itself eventually and when it did so it happened at speed. I look forward to it happening again.

DYOR is the classic throw away acronym at the end of a post. You would hope everyone on a financial BB would know it stands for Do Your Own Research. But sadly amongst Ncyt investors that is not the case. It’s clear that lots of people became shareholders or traders for the first time during lockdown. Many will have bought Ncyt on a tip from a friend or because they saw a tweet saying £50 by Friday or whatever.
They know nothing more than it being a company that makes Covid tests. Therefore with the hopefully excellent news of vaccines about to come into use the misguided logic is that testing is over. If that is what I thought I too would sell out, wether I was in profit or nursing a loss.

But, I have Done my own Research, I have piggybacked off others research, and I can see the current disconnect between the SP and what we know is happening is a nonsense. I was happy to sit and hold, but have added more this morning because eventually when the contracts are signed, and the RNS’ released, and the broker upgrades get sent to the institutions this share will reach its true value.

Dyor