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Brackets , the “fivefold increase “ comment relates to Q16 & Q32 instruments. These weren’t launched until late July and are for Near Patient Testing. Ncyt had production levels of 8-10m PCR lab tests before this. So a fivefold increase in Q16/32 does not equate to a fivefold increase in PCR lab tests.

And therein lies the crux of my question. Nobody knows if we’re shifting 13m tests or as high as 40m tests per month (and I’m not including antibody tests here). As an example I had a look at Biofortuna website a couple of weeks ago to try and get a hint. They make no mention of a deal with Novacyt although they do mention a subsequent deal with for 3m tests ,iirc, with some company in the North East. Does that mean they’re not dealing with us or is there an NDA.

Likewise ,albeit more back of a fag packet, I have FY revs at £500m on an assumption of 15m tests per month this quarter.
But it’s H1 next year that could get really exciting. If this Govt PHE contract gets extended and Care Home Trial is a success etc etc, £1bn revenue for first 6m is not out of the question. But that could only happen if we are not under test production limitations.

I thought the fivefold increase comment only related to the increase in production of Q16 & Q32 instruments following acquisition of It-IS.

Thanks to the efforts of the Bletchley Park moles we are privileged to have information ahead of the market. Be it product development or orders from literally anywhere in the World. But the one thing we don’t seem to have a handle on is the number of monthly tests we can now produce.
With Mullins maintaining radio silence the last definitive figure I recall was 10m tests per month capability from August. Since then just 3m antibody tests per month.
And yet it has always been said we are selling all we can make and it is clear UK and global testing is higher than ever now. Eg In Sept Government had 250k PCR tests available daily, now it is well over 500k daily.

So the Govt first big contract was for 288k tests before week, or ~1.25m a month, or 41k a day.
Late Sept stated contract was £150m for 14 weeks. Assuming roughly £10m for equipment etc (probably less), that leaves £140m for tests, ie £10m a week. At roughly £8 a test that’s 1.25m a week or 5m tests a month. That’s a quadrupling of tests.
So previously the Government were taking 12.5% of our available tests (1.25m) and rest having 8.75m tests per month. If we were still only making 10m tests per month do we now only have 5m tests available for others? In other words cutting existing orders and not taking on any new customers. That would make no sense when we know global testing continues to increase.

So if rest of world sales are flat, we should now be producing 13.75m tests a month.
If Rest of World sales have doubled we’re up to 22.5m tests per month, which seems not unreasonable.
If RoW sales are matching the Government’s quadrupled order we are at 40m tests a month.
Now I don’t know if we’re capable of that. But at 13.75m tests we get £110m revenue per month. And if we are capable of anything like those higher production levels for Oct,Nov,Dec at £8 per test the potential revenues are eye watering.

No matter what the amount, I think a directors missus buying shares is more significant than a director buy. Whilst I’m sure she’s smart enough to know a good thing when she sees it, I can’t imagine anyone encouraging their spouse to invest, unless 100% certain they won’t lose any money.

It might be helpful if Numis could broker note update on effect of vaccine on Ncyt and reiterating their price targets.
Ditto, Ncyt could easily release an Rns noting the movement in SP and offer an updated guidance on visible earnings for FY as the current one of at least £150m is clearly understated. This would provide reassurance to private investors who have been supportive throughout the year. But I have to say it may well be that they would prefer not to have so many private investors on the share register.

A lot of investors have this on their watch list and have been hoping for a dip to buy but the SP has held up very well. The pi world interview will have forced a few hands and with less than a month until FDA news FOMO is likely to kick in. Could be about to go on another run here.

Boris would normally love to shout out british being best. I’ve wondered why the silence and I reckon maybe it’s because they want to keep it quiet from rest of world as they wouldn’t want someone else taking all our tests. Just a thought.

This from a sharebuyers article today on Covid beneficiaries.

“ Fusion Antibodies (LON: FAB) – recently developed SARS-CoV-2 antigens that mimics coronavirus. Able to confirm recent past infections as well as antibodies and are being offered on a commercial basis worldwide to research firms and companies worldwide. The size of the opportunity is unclear, but FAB as a business has a solid-record and much more than a COVID play.”

Ah cheers VanV, my memory playing tricks thinking Nov, but the point being it’s neither rumour or luck that they get intel early.
Well done on the prompting of that article. I recall it as pleasant reading after Tempus had given Ncyt an Avoid a few weeks previous.
Was it also you that used to feed Robert Peston suggestions for questions at the daily government briefings?

A fine summary and the website is essential reading for investors.

I do however have some queries/corrections on that piece.
1. States GM was “rumoured” to be receiving intel on Covid. I would say that is a fact. I recall reading an interview GM did in the Times in the Summer where he stated that because they have a wide network of sources they knew about Covid 19 in November and started working on a test then.
2. Could someone explain the disparity between Covid19 market being worth $19.8bn annually and the tweet that Elon Musk comments on that suggests in the US alone the market is $56bn?
3. It is wrong to say Numis have a SP target range of between £13.65 and £30. It is clear in the broker note the range is £4.50 (bear scenario) and £30 (blue sky). £13.65 was their average target. I should add that I believe Numis have left plenty of room for SP target to be raised as news officially comes out.

In January 21 we should get an end of year trading update from Ncyt. My hope is it will be along the lines of “Sales ahead of market forecasts “ as GM has been very conservative with his previous predictions. At this point we will see Numis providing a new target price. Their blue sky SP target of £34 may well become their base target.
I won’t join in with Christmas Eve prediction but I’ll stick with my previous Jan target of £27.

Balanced, thanks for clarification that they are add-ons.

My 5-6 per month is based on their 18month business plan from launch target of 100 in the Feb presentation. However subsequently as you know, Bracco have backed us and have their man on the board. So it may well be that they will be looking for a more aggressive take up now.

Those 10.8p buys are sells. Just quoted 10.82p for a dummy sell. MMS want your shares.

My take from the February presentation is that they would hope to shift 5 or 6 a month on average. I guess a lot will depend when clients are looking to replace existing MRI units.
This from GE Healthcare in 2017:-

“On average, 50% of the installed MRI base will be replaced within 11 years of their installation with an average replacement cycle of 11.5 years, and ranging from 3 to 22+ years. The general feeling is that 1 out of every 5 MRI systems is older than 10 years.”

From the investor presentation, this would suggest looking to sell 100 at launch.

“EXECUTE the Launch
Optimize a Controlled Launch With Ventilation Claim in Limited Institutional Targets (n~100) with a Lean Sales, Marketing, Customer Service, and Reimbursement Team”

That PI world chat with fund managers gives us a good indication of what all fund managers will be thinking now. NCYT is a buy on fundamentals, a buy on potential, a buy because it’s a TO target and I wouldn’t want to be a fund manager having to explain to clients why he wasn’t holding any Ncyt next time they query the performance of their investment.

Poor old Goodbar. He’s been a member since Feb 19 and waited until today to post and that was the best he could come up with.
Run back to your MM friends, apologise that you got laughed out of town and admit that maybe deramping isn’t really your speciality.

Rcdm, so if you are saying that at £100 that values Ncyt at £7bn and you believe that is too high then that is fair enough. There was no need to mention AZN at all. It was your comparison that suggested you don’t understand market cap.
In truth I get more irritated at people throwing out price targets without any substance.
I apologise for suggesting you’re a fool.

Wolverine would you care to add your sales/profit projections and anticipated PE ratio that enabled you to come up with that target price.

rcdm, as the saying goes, it is better to stay silent and have people think you’re a fool than to post on a BB and remove any doubt.