Member Info for Acuere

I commented here that with Ncyt now the 15th largest company on Aim, it was a formality that it would enter the FTSE Aim 100 and that Aim 100 Tracker Funds would have to invest.
So I thought I’d look to see the monetary size of these Tracker funds to get an idea of how many shares in Ncyt they would need to buy to achieve the correct weighting.

And guess what? There aren’t any!! Apparently it’s not a thing to have Aim tracker funds as the spread is so great it’s not cost effective.

Oh well, you learn something new every day.

I’m in 2 minds as to wether £10 will be a barrier. Undoubtedly there are many who will look to sell at £10 but on the other hand our SP is led by the French, so it doesn’t really equate as a barrier if the French now go on a run having skipped clear of €10

Absolutely manofkent. And if they did wish to move to a full listing their current market cap would see them enter the Ftse 250 at next review.

The London Stock Exchange is seperate from AIM. Whilst AIM is intended for smaller companies with less jurisdiction and different tax rules, just because an Aim company becomes large it doesn’t mean it has to move to the LSE.
Likewise in USA the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq are seperate exchanges.

Okay, there are flaws in this comparison but the one stock I hold that has outperformed Ncyt this year also had a promotion to an Index this year. De Grey mining on the ASX announced on September 4 they were to be included in the ASX 300 when it was reconstituted on September 21. This was anticipated and 2 weeks before the share was 89c. On the 3rd Sept (day before announcements) it was $1.26. By the 21st Sept it was $1.49. During this period it also had a Cap Raise.

Shaun was asking how you become a constituent of this index and I must admit I was surprised to see that we weren’t already in it. It is a list of the top 100 Aim companies by market cap.
The list is reviewed every quarter. I assume the rules of review are same as the FTSE 100 in that you would need to be in the top 90 to be considered for inclusion. When last reviewed in August for the September change it looks like we only had a mkt cap of about £220m which must have only just fallen short of automatic inclusion.
Our current market cap is about £650m which ranks us as the 15th biggest company on Aim. So you can safely say that come next review for December we will be included.
And what difference will that make? Well any Aim Index tracker funds will have to buy Ncyt shares to make there tracker fund correct. So just another reason for the SP to increase then.

ShaunP,

300k shares = £2.78m

This share reminds me of Maxcyte when it reached market cap of £100m. I already held and was looking to top up on any fall back. It never did pull back. So I eventually paid over £3 for shares I could have bought for less than £2 if I hadn’t been so greedy. Make no mistake this is likely to be £250m mkt cap long before FDA approval granted.

Hopefully this won’t be the last new order of the year. This from the interims:-

“Researchers continue to apply for and receive grants to purchase our polariser systems. We are in discussions with several potential customers and anticipate additional orders during calendar year 2020.”

Whilst nothing is a certainty, if grants are being given to purchase Polx polariser system, you’d be hard pushed not to convert these discussions into orders.

Newboy, apologies I think I agree with you.
I should have just looked at the RNS title instead of trying to match up previously quoted numbers. I had been expecting 2 installation announcements before year end and presumed this was one. So therefore 23 installations, and 3 orders (todays, UBC from 19/2/19 and 1 other).

Apologies for any confusion I’ve caused.

No I believe today’s RNS is one previously mentioned as being “on order” but has now been installed.

So from the note last year “The number of systems installed or on order is currently 25*.” We now have 24 installed and 1 on order.

New boy, no last months installation was No23.

Doesn’t mean there aren’t more orders in the pipeline that they’ve not told us about though.

From last years HY results :-

“ The number of systems installed or on order is currently 25*.”

Today’s order is number 24. So there is at least one other system installation still to come which I seem to recall they expect to complete before year end.

There is a Twitter account set up under the name Novacyt Insider. It has made 3 tweets. Friday “3”. Saturday “2” and today “1”. Probably complete nonsense, but if genuine would suggest a countdown to an announcement tomorrow maybe?

Fair enough Sieveco, but I think you are underestimating the virus and Ncyts standing on a global stage. It was not by accident that Ncyt were first to market with a test and a highly accurate one at that. I fear the virus will be around for some while yet and also other viruses will follow. Ncyt will be the go to company for countries who will now be aware they need to treat these threats with greater seriousness. I also believe Ncyt are aware they do not want to rely solely on Covid 19 tests and will be looking for alternative revenue sources.

Wilson, Libero. Tbh I agree with you, I’m just trying to reign it in a bit so that people can see how not much increase in sales this half can translate to profits by which you can attach a PE ratio. I actually think a company exhibiting this sort of growth warrants a PE ration of 20+.
It’s a shame we do not have access to the same info that Numis and ODDO are providing their institutional clients. From the buying seen this last 2 weeks it’s clearly good, as it should be. I also don’t want people selling out too soon because they look at the chart alone and think it can’t go much higher whereas in reality it is still very undervalued.

From the HY results.

“...given the visibility of orders, extended contracts and the launch of new COVID-19 related products, revenue for the second half of the year is expected to be greater than the first half of the year and margins to be at least at a similar level. Full year revenues are expected to exceed €150 million and EBITDA profitability to exceed €100 million. The Company expects this rate of financial performance to extend into the first half of 2021.”

I think this is seriously underestimating the likely figures.

HY sales were €72m, giving €60m profit and Eps of 61c.
Sales increased monthly and June sales were €25.4m. Also this was the first month where test capacity was 8m per month. So even if monthly sales stayed flat you would expect 2nd half sales to be €152m making FY sales €224m.

But at least €63m of orders had not yet been booked in as sales and arrangements were being made to increase monthly test capacity by at least 50%.

So €224m should give profit of €185m and 186c Eps.

But we know we have a near €500m order from UK government and goodness knows what else still to come. It’s difficult to know when these big orders are booked as sales but more realistically I think FY sales could be €360m giving €300m profit and Eps of 300c. But with potentially another £1b of orders in the pipeline for next year.

If we assume an undemanding PE of 10, 300c or 270p, would give a SP target of £27.

I could see this target being hit off the back of a trading update in early January.

For people looking in this is an excellent summary of potential. Worth reading his other posts on Fab as well.
https://spongeshare.com/research/fusion-antibodies-research-note-part-2/

Cheers hedgehog, that sounds even better. Jonathon Allis’ experience here will hopefully come in handy.

...... also feel sure Hemo would have mentioned previously if we were working with someone else. Hemo announcements so far only suggest Immunogenyx working alone.