Member Info for PaddyGall

@TT - I have been looking at the table included in the Newcrest December quarterly report this morning. The costs at Cadia / Telfer are nicely broken down and we can use them to get a rough idea of where the AISC might eventually end up when Havieron begins to be processed.

The costs in the table are per/oz and we know the MRE at Havieron is for 2.0 g/t whereas the head grade at Telfer is 0.94 g/t at present, the also need to mine a lot more material at Telfer and sort through it to achieve that head grade thus adding even more costs.

So we are treating ore that is twice the grade and will potentially have less handing but more transport costs so lets be conservative and say the mining cost per ounce reduces from $779 to $500.

The milling costs are again per ounce and should be roughly half the cost as the grade is more than double so allow for a reduction from $433 to $215.

The real biggie is in the by-products. At present Telfer is treating copper at 0.09% whereas Havieron will supply ore at 0.31% and Cadia is 0.39% at present. So again lets be conservative and say the by-product credits at Telfer will increase from $167 per ounce to $800.

I have put together a little table using the values from the December report and then added another column to see what effect these changes could make on the AISC at Telfer (provided all the other costs stay the same) - it doesn't take much imagination to see how the AISC could be less that $500.

https://ibb.co/nz6PBQv

Telfer will be restored to it former glory as a cash cow and when the block-cave at Havieron becomes a reality in the coming years the mining costs will reduce further and eventually they may get to Cadia levels of AISC.

GLA - Paddy

@Dhanteras

"Clearly large long term holders are selling out."

I don't know about other LTH's but I can guarantee you I've not sold one and others I know are the same.

If anything I would say that LTH's would have taken a little of the table in the 30's and are quite happily buying back in at this level.

GLA Paddy

Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn.

They can do whatever they want with the SP, all I'm interested in is where will it be in 12 months time and then reassess from there.

Tier1 mines don't come along every day and our 30% of Havieron will prove to be a Tier1 deposit in it's own right in time IMO.

Buy, sell, hold, trade - it's up to the individual, I know what I'll be doing.

GLA Paddy

Hi MDC1 - what is the reasoning / effect of this happening?

Nice clear image on planet.com this morning. We can clearly see the earth moving activity that GH was referring to both to the South of the sand-dunes where the evaporation ponds will be located and also to the North of the sand-dunes as well.

https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1354713278283448322?s=20

The coming months are going to be very frenetic indeed - GLA Paddy

OK - if this doesn't bring it home to you then nothing will here's 2 lines from tonight's report - firstly.

"A total of 138,504m of drilling from 153 drill holes has been completed since Newcrest commenced exploration activity in May 2019"
and then
"Approximately 65,000m of growth-related drilling is planned over the next two quarters"

They intend drill half as much again in the next 6 months as they have done since they started in May 2019, while at the same time progressing with the decline and mine infrastructure.

I know where my hands are going - ATB Paddy

@Slogdosh - very possibly, we know from the satellite activity that they were sniffing around the Nimitz & Apollo targets just before the Christmas break but after Artemis had packed up.

Maybe the GGP RNS in the morning might put a bit more meat on the bones in regard to this.

Looks like it's all infill drilling for now - they're planning 65km of growth related drilling over the next 2 quarters.

The grades and the intercepts are fantastic - that 12.5Moz looks nailed on and then there is this sentence.

"Further targets outside of Havieron, but within the joint venture area with Greatland Gold, have been identified with
the potential to conduct drilling to test these targets in the future."

Whoooohooooo

Here is the actual text from the Berenberg note

"We have updated our valuation to account for the maiden resource and exploration results that, in our view, suggest a materially larger mineralised system than we had previously envisaged and we now ultimately expect a deposit of 12.5Moz to be delineated based on the current drilling (versus 5.5Moz previously). Based on the average EV/reserve ounce for the Australian mid-tier gold miners at USD696/oz, and assuming a 50% probability weighting, this generates a new price target of GBp33/share (from GBp22/share) and we thus retain a Hold recommendation."

You can now make up your own minds as to what GGP is worth - to me the key words in there are "based on current drilling".

So Berenberg are expecting 12.5Moz based on the drilling up to end of October / mid November, what will that estimate be when we have 12 more months of drilling the bejesus out of Havieron be?

GLA - Paddy

Not had a chance to catch up with the goings on today due to work commitments but I'm sure we've had the usual mix of messages.

Regardless of what we think or post on here the one thing we can be sure of is Newcrest are still waiting flat out and have demonstrated their 100% commitment to the project.

https://au.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=802857539a03b9b4&from=serp

Here's a new job advert posted today, it's all systems go in Australia.

ATB Paddy

Looking forward to settling down tonight with a beer to watch this one magic,

Thanks for taking the time out - it is very much appreciated.

ATB - Paddy

@Greg - you might well be right but unless you are trading GGP or looking for an exit in the short term then it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.

Sure it's nice to look at the bigger balance in your trading account / ISA but many people on here are prepared to wait for GGP to either become a miner or be bought out by NCM (which incidentally I don't think will happen) and are therefore prepared to ride out the bumps in the ever upward trajectory of our share price.

GLA - Paddy

I guess a lot of people are chasing the other stocks that have come out with promising RNS's over the past week or two and even this morning - that is their prerogative.
I've just had a look at the Sentinel update this morning and all I can say is I'd rather my money be in here, where we are past the speculative phase and can watch as NCM continue to add value to Havieron over the coming weeks & months.
ATB - Paddy

Any cores that NCM report need to be verified at an independent lab. If you look back at the Havieron results to date and check the JORC appendix at the end of the reports you will see that NCM use Intertek in Perth to do their assays.

They certainly have their own fully functional labs at Telfer but they must use an independent lab - I'm sure that NCM will have preferential treatment when it comes to getting their assays processed - there will be a constant stream of cores arriving at their facility for assaying every 6 weeks and that's just Havieron, I don't think Intertek would risk losing that business by delaying the NCM cores too much IMO.

ATB - Paddy

Afternoon all,

The landscape at Havieron has changed dramatically over the past few days with the wet weather that the typhoon has blown through there. All the water holes and lakes are overflowing now but the start of the earthworks is clearly visible on the satellite image from today. It's only a partial shot of the site so I can't see the main ore-body area but we can see the camp and the area where they have form the new access road through the sand-dune as per the mining proposal.

It also looks like they have started the clearing of the top-soil in the area where the road will carry on down towards the box-cut. There should be even more to view on the Sentinel update tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1353361116529741829?s=20

GLA - Paddy

Probably right on that @JET47, The only saving grace is that if we want to test deeper at Kraken and London then they should hopefully be able to re-enter the holes and drill down another couple of hundred metres.

ATB - Paddy

@TT - this is the one you want, Sam Garrett when he was employed by ECR.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXdhO7vbCEY&ab_channel=Proactive

ATB - Paddy

MFU - it does happen to be lunchtime at the minute.

Haha @MFU - I was about to say something pretty similar, if you weren't here since August then it's more than doubled.

TBF @notrader, the drilling that the MRE was based on would have been completed by the beginning of November IMO so there will be plenty of more results since then. I think this report will be the December quarter so well include drilling roughly to the end of December - although it may be earlier as they would struggle to get results back from the labs over Christmas themselves.

Still won't be JORC standard as required to update the MRE though.

ATB Paddy