Member Info for PaddyGall

Pitiful volume down here at these levels, there's no way they are getting what they need and if anything the savvy PI's are loading up what they can - I know that I have this morning.

A few more stashed away in the ISA - better than money in the bank if you don't need it in the short term.

ATB - Paddy

And we're still awaiting the results from the 400m step-outs to the North & South along the dolerite dyke - if they should show similar mineralisation then all bets are off.....

Hi @Bamps21, we all know it's gonna be mahoosive - the only question is how mahoosive.

Thanks for taking the time to provide your take on it - easy to see why Shaun is determined to hold onto this launch asset.

I had another listen to the Sunday Roast Podcast from February last night, you can hear in Shaun's tone just how excited he is about the future - this was before the GGP MRE upgrade was released. As someone smarter than me said - if you know, then you know.....

ATB - Paddy

Quack

From the Proactive Article:

"In the report, which was prepared with CSA Global, Greatland said it meets ESG criteria for Light Green Fund investments under EU sustainable finance regulations."

So this will start to open up Greatland to other avenues of investment - I'm sure Shaun has all this in hand, he doesn't strike me as one to leave any stone unturned.

ATB - Paddy

Love the analogy Costa

Agree Napthman, another box ticked for sure,

Nice report, can't see it making any difference today or tomorrow but setting us up nicely for when the II's decide it's time to jump in.

Shaun is not overly concerned about the short term, he has a longer game in mind here and so should we IMO.

GLA Paddy

At least the the percentages right - GGP will be left with 25% after the 5% is taken by Newcrest.

Disappointing results, it's still early days but it just goes to show how blessed and lucky we are to have a system such as Havieron that keeps on giving.

With Havieron, Telfer, Winu, Minyari, etc all being in the near locality then the odds are still stacked that there are other elephants still lurking in the depths - the difficulty is locating them reliably under cover.

GLA Paddy

@Redtrader - we are in a bit of a hybrid lassonde curve TBF, usually we'd be in the orphan period awaiting the FS before the financing would be agreed and the construction work would even begin.
We have completely bypassed that with NCM having already begun the decline and the decision to mine is all but rubber-stamped. We know finance won't be an issue - the only uncertainty is the level of value that we will realise from our 5% IMO.

ATB - Paddy

Uncertainty still until the 5% and the debt financing is in place would be my guess - plus no doubt aided and abetted by a strategically placed trade here & there, now that we have confirmed shorters on the share.

It matters not a jot in the long term IMO - it will take it's own good time to be worked out and the one thing we can be guaranteed of is those shorts will at some point have to rebuy the shares and return them from whence they came.

Lots of fun & games to be played out yet - Paddy

Cheers Hydro - HAD084 is a great hit for sure but the others in there are not too shabby either.

Eastern Breccia
HAD104 62.5m @ 5.9g/t Au & 0.30% Cu + 85m @ 1.2g/t Au & 0.37% Cu
HAD145W1 150.1m @ 3.7g/t Au & 0.15% Cu

SE Deeps
HAD133 - 85m @ 11g/t Au & 0.29% Cu
HAD133W1 - 133m @ 7.0g/t Au & 0.05% Cu

and plenty of other stonking good holes - these are all outside the upgraded MRE resource but are all in very close proximity to the mining infrastructure that is going in.

It's quite easy to become blasé about these results as they roll in every 6/7 weeks but these are all exceptional hits and 100% will be mined.

ATB - Paddy

Nooooooooo!!!!

Hi MH01 - there are plenty of long overland conveyors out there in the world that are running day after day reliably in the harshest of environments. It needn't be one complete conveyor - they can be designed with transfer stations where the ore from one conveyor is loaded onto the next one. Something as critical as this would be built probably with a standby/duty arrangement on the drives and motors so any downtime would be kept to a minimum.
Usually the overland conveyors are supplied with a cover so the material wouldn't be subject to the extremes of wet & windy weather.

There's obviously a capex cost involved in installing them but once they are in then as Hydro says they can utilise wind & solar power to run them and the opex would be a fraction of the costs required to keep a fleet of trucks on the go. In truth it would be impossible to transport those quantities by road-train anyway. We won't need to worry about it too much for another few years - it will be interesting to see what level of bulk mining scoping study the FS will include, hopefully by then Sandeep will be back in full cheerleading mode for Havieron.

ATB - Paddy

Hi Ben, Zoros, Tymers - I don't particularly mind if Newcrest do a full buy-out of Havieron provided that they pay a proper price for the remaining 25%. What people need to get into their heads is that the 5% and the 25% should be in no way related to each other. So if NCM get the 5% of Havieron for $100-$150M and then offer another $750M for the remaining 25% then they should be laughed out of boardroom.

Therein lies another problem for Sandeep - he wants to get the 5% on the cheap so how can he then justify the price that it would take to persuade the PI's to part with their prized possession of Havieron?

Shaun has done a great job of building up a relationship and rapport with the PI base, I'm sure that neither he nor the board would be recommending any sub-par offer to the shareholders and without that backing then I think any bid would be doomed before it got off the ground. Remember Shaun confirmed that any sale of Havieron ONLY would also be put to the shareholders so ultimately it will be you and I who will decide.

Lots of twists and turns to come in the plot over the coming months and all set against the macro environment where commodities are set to take an ever more increasing role in our day to day lives. Gold will always be golden, but the copper and dare I say nickel / cobalt and maybe other metals could become much more important as the Eastern Breccia is probed more & more.

Havieron - the Tier 1 that keeps on giving.......

Hi Josh - that is a fair point, but I think the short would have been in place when the 5% was first mooted and would have been assuming that the PFS estimate would have been used (just like poor old Sandeep).

The GGP updated MRE has changed the goalposts somewhat so I don't think it's as cut and dried now for the shorts. Of course they are not in any immediate hurry to cover while the uncertainty continues but I think they will be having to make a decision one way or the other in the not too distant future.

It will be fascinating to see how both they and also the shareholders react to the agreement when it eventually is released. Some people like Hydro and a few others are keeping their ISA powder dry in case there is a buying opportunity. It should be interesting to see what pans out.

GLA - Paddy

I think Shaun is looking at the updated GGP resource figure of 6.5Moz.
I think Sandeep is still hoping to use the PFS value of only 4.2Moz in his assessment of the 5%.

On that basis I would think that they are quite far apart and that's why Shaun is talking about an independent assessor being appointed. Maybe he is just doing a Powell and "jawboning" to Sandeep that he's happy to go to arbitration.

Sandeep is probably on very shaky ground here IMO as the updated MRE was performed on drill results prior to the date that they indicated to GGP that they were moving for the 5%. The GGP update was verified as JORC compliant by SRK consulting so it will be hard for them to refute it, and they are producing their own updated MRE up to the end of June for inclusion in their annual report in August.

Personally I think Sandeep will want it sorted before that NCM MRE is released and Shaun can easily drag it out past that date if he wishes in arbitration so although I wouldn't necessarily say that Shaun has the upper hand, it seems he is in a decent negotiating position. This was only brought about by his foresight and actions, so as shareholders I think we should be delighted and be right behind him with our full support.
Fascinating to watch the corporate tensions playing out, but ultimately the time window is starting to narrow and some form of resolution will be with us in the coming months IMO.

Once that and the debt financing is in place then our only other uncertainty is the progress of the decline and consequently arrival at the orebody and production of first ore and cash flow. I know they are in better ground now as Shaun stated in his interview but until they have a sustained period in that better ground they will continue cautiously. Once they are happy that ground is continuous then the rate of progress will improve drastically - we should start to see the Byrnecut estimates of 150m per month (and hopefully better) getting hit regularly.

I'm hoping the worst is behind us now and we have some clear air ahead of us as we move into the full-on drilling season in Oz.

We still have to hear about out own plans at Scallywag / Canning and the Juri JV plans, we are also waiting for the much anticipated ESG report. Lots to look forward to in the coming months

PS - There is a new satellite image today but it just looks like one big load on cotton wool over most of WA.

ATB - Paddy

Getting nice coverage on the mainstream investment platforms.

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/articles/latestnews/243743/greatland-gold-gets-good-drill-results-havieron-gold-copper-project

GLA - Paddy

Probably a multitude of reasons which we are not privy to without seeing the actual note.

They've probably not allowed for any increase in the gold price but will have considered rising costs due to inflationary pressures. They probably factored in rising interest rates into their model, etc, etc.

When the gold price eventually moves and they factor this into their models then the TP should adjust accordingly.

Just look at the widths and grades of the hits in the Eastern Breccia and then look at the distance apart these hits are. Then look at the continuity of the SE crescent where the drilling has been concentrated up to now...

Does anyone seriously think that there won't be the same continuity as the drilling density increases in the other sections of the Eastern Breccia, the Northern Breccia & the NW Pod. It's as obvious as the nose on your face - the transition period where Shaun has been grappling with the dreaded percentage negotiations and the debt financing is soon coming to an end - the uncertainty around these issues will soon be behind us and if (when) the gold price re-rates then our time will come again.

I still treat my investment here like money in the bank - I don't need it now but when I will I am pretty certain that it will be showing handsome profits from where we are today.

DYOR and GLA - Paddy

The old wyckoff - one, two??