Member Info for PaddyGall

Couple of times he referred to the "gap" zone between the SE Crescent and the Eastern Breccia and they are targeting it now and with the growth drilling in future.
Once they prove that area up and there is continuity between the two and it all developed using the same infrastructure that's being put in for the starter mine - then watch out above IMO.

Any PI selling on the back of that interview this morning needs their head testing - results in 2 weeks - bring it on.....

ATB - Paddy

Fair play to Shaun & Liam - that's what you call shareholder engagement.

Looking forward to the chat....

ATB Paddy

We know they are looking for deep diamond drillers from Havieron - there was a link kindly provided by MF11 earlier today on here.

Just taking another look at the AuEq oz per vertical metre from the GGP MRE2 might give us a clue as to why - basically the grades are improving dramatically at depth. Have a look at the diagram I've done on this tweet - OK it's only a rough attempt to show the relationship between the drills through an area and the associated mineralisation.

https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1529180183735021568?s=20&t=iKqlS3hvzc-JxK2FZl1p6w

You can clearly see that there is almost 1/2 the amount of AuEq delineated at depth as there is at the top of the deposit even though there is only roughly 1/7th the amount of drilling in that area. If the correlation continues in the same or similar ratios then there will be serious ounces added to the mining plan in the coming months.

Again DYOR - the info is all out there - Paddy

Hi JC & Dipp - thanks for the clarification. I guess it makes sense that there wouldn't be a time limit on the resolution of the negotiations. If they spend 12 months on it then another few won't matter.
The only good thing being that if it goes past Q4 this year then Newcrest's MRE3 and DFS will have been published and that would have to have a substantial bearing on the worth of the 5% - even if not the reserves calculation, it surely would on the potential exploration upside.

Anyway - I have faith in Shaun and the board/team that he has assembled - they are a crack team and they haven't come to GGP to just while away the hours. They believe that they are going places and will be doing everything in their power to bring us all along with them.

ATB - Paddy

Agreed @dealts - no LTHer is looking at the price and feeling good about it. OK people can use the weakness to add at these lower levels and good luck to them - I've done it on a couple of occasions myself - but my nerves are not getting fraught in the slightest. This is an easy hold for me, when we are either mining or bought out then this trading range will be long forgotten.

The whole idea behind the way the market is treating us is to play on those nerves and emotions, I know it's hard to do but seriously look at where we are now compared to where we were when the SP was in the high 20's, just look at the fundamentals of what we have and how much closer we are to realising that.

As I said - it's an easy hold for me but everyone must DYOR....

Newcrest have 30 days from the date that the figure is either agreed or arbitrated on to take up the offer.

In theory they have 12 months from the date that they indicated to GGP that they wanted the 5% so that's December 15th this year, but I would think that could be pushed out if agreement isn't reached by then.

ATB - Paddy

What is Shaun going to do to change sentiment Freddie, he has been nothing but enthusiastic in every interview, he has told us all we should be popping champagne corks, he is fighting tooth and nail for every penny that he can from the 5% negotiations, he has told us all that debt finance is pretty much a done deal, he's told us there is other base metal opportunities at Havieron, he's relayed the news to us that the decline is into better ground and the progress is improving.

TBF - I'm not sure what more the man can do at the moment. Anyway 10 trading days (2 bank holidays next week) to the next set of results - let's see what he can do to improve sentiment then.

GLA - Paddy

Must be those pesky PI's again - offloading £148K worth of golden tickets when we're just over 2 weeks away from another set of drill results - who'd have believed it.

GLA - Paddy

The Rubicon - it's an expression Freddie that means "past the point of no return"

ATB - Paddy

Hi Rotherby, there won't be any problems with ground conditions once they are down into the protozeoric rocks where the mineralisation is. The only issue with the ground conditions is the overlying permian sands that have made the progress with the decline so slow up to now.

I'm thinking along the same lines as you - that NCM would be prepared to pay a higher figure when we are mining if they can justify their ROC figure when the understand they have a Tier1 mine that will return them big profits over 30,40 or 50 years.

There's no guarantee that GGP shareholders would take the deal in 3/4 years time either though - if the economics are as compelling as we hope they are then we may never vote any deal through. People who want their £1 per share may find that's achievable by selling up their shares at that point, especially if Shaun achieves his ambition of being a "MULTI" asset company be that through the drill-bit or through inorganic growth as he keeps on mentioning.

GGP is not just all about Havieron - albeit's a rather large part of the picture at the moment.

ATB - Paddy

That's all fine and dandy and nobody minds if Havieron is acquired 100% by NCM once the price is fair and reflects the value that Havieron would represent for GGP over the following five year period - I'm sure that's what Shaun alluded to in a couple of his interviews/presentations over the past few months.

If NCM are prepared to de-risk Havieron for GGP and bring forward the value that it would be worth, then he said that he's not allergic to making money, but it would be with a tear in his eye. He's fully aware of the importance of this asset to the development of GGP as a viable mining business and IMO there is not a cat's chance in hell of it getting sold on the cheap and preferably not at all in his eyes.

GLA - Paddy

All this chat of take-overs made me have a look through the take-over code and rules.

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#offer-structures

Very interesting paragraph in there :-

"Insider dealing
If a bidder possesses inside information in relation to a target, the insider dealing rules mean that the bidder will not be able to acquire any shares in the target company until the information ceases to be inside information. The fact that the bidder is considering making an offer for the target company can, of itself, constitute inside information. However, if the bidder does not possess any inside information other than the knowledge that it expects to make an offer for the target, it should still be possible for the bidder to acquire shares before the announcement of the offer without breaching the relevant insider dealing legislation."

The fact that NCM have continuously updated drill results, XRF readings, Modelling of the ore-body, etc, etc that is not available to the market would IMO give them insider knowledge and prohibit them from building a stake in GGP and I think they would need to halt exploration drilling and cleanse themselves of all information before they could even make a bid - I'd appreciate if there were a lawyer with experience who could confirm this though as it's only my opinion.

Were this to happen - our SP would rocket on the speculation that a bid would be incoming. All this leads me to believe that NCM are more than likely not involved in any nefarious practices (apart from downplaying Havieron recently) in regards to the SP - if there is manipulation going on then it's more likely to be a group of spivs who are playing on our emotions.

All in my humble opinion and please DYOR - Paddy

Personally I think if Newcrest were to make a move for a minority JV share it would be more probable that it would be for Imperial Metals 30% share of Red Chris.

That would mean they had 100% control over both the Canadian mines in BC.
After all Red Chris is a Tier1 orebody and Havieron/Telfer is still only a Tier2 (according to NCM).

They are guaranteed to take their 5% of Havieron which gives them the 75% that they initially want - I still think any offer for 100% of Havieron is a distance away yet and if they decide to go for it and it gets put to shareholders they will need to be 100% sure of getting it across the line as it would tie their hands for another 12 months before they could make another offer.

ATB - Paddy

I agree 100% @MH01, we've been told on numerous occasions that Newcrest are a big old lumbering beast of a company that go through the motions and are ultra-conservative in their approach to everything to do with assessment of resources and therefore will follow the same format with regards to a TO bid for Havieron.

Their time to come in with a lowball offer was 2.5 years ago when they could have comfortably bought us out for peanuts but the same thing that stopped them making a 10p / share offer then will stop them making a 20p / share (or whatever) until after the DFS and the decision to mine is complete. The problem for them is that we (and the market) will have an even better understanding of the overall structure and endowment of Havieron by then and the price will have increased even more.

I couldn't care less either way - the risk / reward here is skewed massively in our favour IMO, I know of a few high profile fund managers who agree and are happy buying more at these levels.

Another week closer to resolution of the negotiations, another week closer to interim results, etc, etc.

Tick tock - they can't keep throwing money at it forever if PI's won't relinquish their hold on their tickets.

GLA - Paddy

Page 66 of the latest annual report - Callum had 18m options left 9m @ 2.5p and 9m @ 3.0p so I think it's pretty safe to say that it is him who has taken his last remaining options up.

Gervaise doesn't have any options left.

https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GGP-Annual-Accounts-2021.pdf

ATB - Paddy

Shaun understands the position that the uncertainty around the negotiations is causing uncertainty in the market but his hands are tied for now unless he's prepared to accept the lowball 5%, which we would all be up in arms over too.

It is what it is, I can't believe we're within a whisker of single digits again after 2 years of nothing but good result after good result from Havieron. I guess the world and the macro environment has changed dramatically since then too - no more help with cash from government, bounce back loans, etc, etc.

Inflation is biting hard with some people and inevitably some folks have to cash in their investments when there are other calls on their capital.

We have been through big changes in the company also with moving from a pure explorer to a developer and eventually to a producer. There have been changes at the boardroom level with the old guard moving on or taking a back seat in Callum's case and Shaun has built his own team around him to take us on this new journey. There's always going to be a level of trepidation and uncertainty as we move through this transition phase and deal with the legacy issues left from the JVA.

Will it drop any further - who knows - if more people sell than buy then that's a given - just remember that Havieron has a PFS and an MRE2, we are 3 months away from getting the next NCM resource upgrade and then a few more months away from a FS and a decision to mine.

Havieron is going to be mined - full stop, two years ago that was still a pipe dream and now it's a reality. I can't tell you if there will be a takeover or if we will end up mining as a junior partner but regardless of what outcome it's a pretty safe bet that the SP will be well in excess of 11.2p and IMO should end up being multiples of that minimum.

I wish you all good luck whatever you chosen path - Paddy

Shame to see people selling up but let's hope the capitulation marks the bottom.

So much to look forward to here, imagine if Shaun turns around in 4 weeks time and says we can confirm we're now in good ground and the decline is ramping up to the design speed of 154m / month, imagine if he says the 400m north & south step-outs on the dolerite dyke have hit more mineralisation, imagine, imagine.

And of course if they don't hit - we still have 30% in what will be the long term saviour of Telfer.

ATB - Paddy

Nothing is being stolen from anyone - The 5% will be decided by the arbitrator and regardless of what that outcome may be, Shaun has clarified on a few occasions that any sale of the remaining 25% of Havieron will be put to the vote of shareholders.

Shaun bought shares in the placement and has options at 25p so he's underwater with his own cash also - probably more so than a lot of the PI's who have been here for years.

Value will out - there probably are PI's losing their bottle and selling up now after the 18months of constant downward pressure even with nothing but good news, will that prove to be the right course of action - only time will tell.

GLA holders - Paddy

TBF Sharky an easy mistake to make as Freddie says but if you read his post he points out that POG is going up today whereas the POG is actually going down - confusing ehhhhh.

I don't have any disciples, just a wife, 4 kids and a dog....

PMSL - POG = Petropavlovsk - keep up Sharky :-)))