Member Info for PaddyGall

At the end of the day Roy - there's not much they can do if PI's refuse to sell up their tickets. They might find they loosen the PI's grip on a bigger percentage of them if they were prepared to pay a fair price.

The big issue is a lot of the bigger holders here are in for averages from less than a penny to 4/5p and having held and added over the past 4/5 years are more than happy to wait it out for the next 12/18 months until we are either in production or we've had a juicy takeover offer.

Shaun said it himself in a recent interview when he said the GGP share price was somewhat asymmetrical at the moment.

I for one will be waiting and watching to see how it all plays out from here - Paddy

Hi @tiggerman, whilst I agree with your sentiment, I can't see that we have had anything but good news for the past number of months. Since the disappointment of the initial Scallywag results (which in reality weren't that bad) which we all hoped would be Hav Mark II, it's been positive result after positive result.

The elastic band on the SP keeps getting wound up tighter & tighter - one day there will be a catalyst that will cause it to snap, whether that be more Hav drill results (doubtful), announcement of agreement on the 5% negotiations, finalisation of the bank finance, a hit at one of our other tenements, NCM issuing an updated MRE, gold price shooting back above $2,000, etc, etc.

Who knows for sure what will bring the sentiment back to our sector and GGP in particular, but there are lots of possible catalysts and time is ticking by every day.

ATB - Paddy

I had a day off from the board yesterday so didn't get to see this thread but I had the following Twitter DM message from Des yesterday evening who by the way I have been in sporadic touch with for years and is a genuine guy.

"Hi Paddy, I think I’ve been banned from LSE for what was a genuine request for info I’m not sure if you’ve seen the post but my friend is genuinely minted and has never dabbled in stocks, he just buys houses (approx 20) and large industrial units (8) oh and he’s just bought a £1.6m house where he plans to have heli pad, all cash!! He is a software developer and Covid has just accelerated his income massively. Just feel bad now I can’t reply to thank for advice received ALB Des"

So I'm just reposting it here to thank people who took the time to reply to him.

GLA - Paddy

Most reputable firms like HL & AJ Bell do not loan out your shares. I'd say the majority of PI's are with firms like these.

It's the ETF's like GDXJ who has over 200m shares that tend to loan them out, so there's not a great deal that us PI's can do apart from buy at bargains levels if you can. As Rick Rule says if you were happy buying it at 20p and nothing has changed why would you sell it at half price - it's on sale and you should be buying more.

Investing is a funny old business - combinations of fear & greed are very powerful emotions and the algos and players know which buttons to press to cause the maximum pain.

GLA - Paddy

Yep - right on the money @Ham123

https://ibb.co/fqjFkXx

Look at the divergence on the chart from yesterday - just as we were moving up the corresponding increase in the shares on loan up to 64m and stalls us.
Interestingly though - they are getting less and less bang for their buck now. They will soon be up to 100m at this rate and the SP is coiling and coiling nicely.

There's a hell of a lot of eyes on here now and they know when it goes, it goes big time. Imagine all those traders piling in to force their hand - I'm so looking forward to that day.....

ATB - Paddy

https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2022/06/10/havieron-gets-deeper-and-deeper/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

ATB - Paddy

Only matters if you want to sell tomorrow.

ATB - Paddy

I'm sure he said it's a shame the 5% will be done before the FS is out as it would further enhance the valuation. Well we know the FS is scheduled for Q4 this year so realistically it could conceivably be signed, sealed and delivered within the next few months. Then the financing will follow on in quick order and we are all set to go.

Couldn't be happier - SP can do whatever it wants in the short term.

GLA - Paddy

I've said on a few occasions that the window of opportunity for anybody shorting the share is getting smaller and smaller and as soon as any uncertainty about 5% or financing is out of the way then it will be slammed shut.

I'm reckon that they thought that by now a lot of people would have capitulated and gotten bored and went to rainbow chase somewhere else. The bad thing for them is the PI's have been buying more & more recognising the opportunity here.

If the decline ground is now in the tillite layer of rock then they should be able to motor ahead and hit the Byrnecut target rate of 154m or better per month then we are looking at getting to the orebody sometime in the next 10-14 months.

That leaves plenty of time to start getting the cross-drives and stopes into the orebody to haul to Telfer for bulk trials on the processing circuit so they can optimise it ready for the pouring of the "Havierons" by the end of next year or early 2024.

Realistically - we've held through the pure and utter dross over the last 18 months - the next 18 will be a doddle.

GLA - Paddy

There's nothing in the first 420m of cover. It's just permian sands and sediments that have built up over the millennia. The good rocks start at around 420m and it will be very, very, very good rocks.

Yes the usual results that we expect from the SE crescent and it seems they are continuing to improve the results from the Northern breccia where it sits next to the sulphide zone.

There are a lot of outstanding drillholes into the Eastern breccia too that could make for some interesting reading at the next update.

The big takeaway for me is that the decline rate has improved dramatically and the ground is now good enough for them to begin the first spiral which should get them into better ground even quicker - we should see a corresponding speed up of the rate as Byrnecut can take bigger cuts at a time.

That's another unknown behind us now as far as I'm concerned and once the 5% and financing is sorted then it's blue skies all the way to production. Lovely stuff Shaun....

ATB - Paddy

@zoros - you forgot to mention that Shaun has been dropping hints about the "base metal" opportunities that exist at Havieron.

There could be some good news about another commodity being found in economic quantities....

ATB - Paddy

They show their calculation method on the website - they use a DCF model using the broker estimates for the first five years and then assume the company will grow at a stable rate into perpetuity. The second assumption is a little too difficult for me to assign to a company at GGP's stage but having said that using their DCF model for the first ten years gives GGP a valuation of around the 48p mark - more than achievable IMO.

ATB - Paddy

Good interview released today by Willem - I'm sure GGP is one of his biggest positions and we won his discovery fund prize last year. He mentions about companies that will be moving into production within the next 24 months - tick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ObZh12SyP0

ATB - Paddy

Shaun has mentioned in a couple of recent interviews that the current growth drilling is targeting the "Gap" zone between the SE Crescent & the Eastern Breccia.

You can see the area that he is referring to on the two images in this tweet - one from the MRE upgrade and the second from the latest drilling report.

https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1531989961678929925?s=20&t=yxyA6MdxI1Kp-PNx7S0HSg

He is trying to point out that if that area proves to be contiguous and the grades are constant then this whole area will be able to be brought into the mining plan for very, very little additional capex because of the proximity of the decline to this area. That's not even including the additional tonnes that will be added as the SE crescent is proven at greater depths too.

Havieron - the gift that keeps on giving - Paddy

Love this bullet point on page 6.

"Independently assess
Havieron resource and
work closely with Newcrest
to maximise alignment of
resource size"

In other words

Just in case you are in any doubt Sandeep - we will continue to assess Havieron independently but would like to "maximise" alignment of resource - so don't think we will be accepting any lowball estimates or offers.

Love it Shaun.

Joubert - this conversation has been had before and we're pretty sure it's some of the big ETF's like Van Eck that put their GGP shares up for loan. Seems counter intuitive to me as it hurts the SP and they bought the majority of their shares at over 20p but I guess they earn a fee on them so they are happy doing it.

One look at the first page of the presentation shows you it was prepared for the Canaccord Genuity mining conference from the 15-17th May.

Nice updated presentation though - lots to like

Agreed @GoGreen - the company is absolutely in rude health and is on the very cusp of being "FULLY" funded to first production regardless of the outcome of the 5% negotiations.

There was a good post yesterday (slips my mind who it was from) that said no doubt Shaun would have gone to the banks with a range of requirements depending on the outcome of the negotiations. That would make complete sense to me and knowing that Shaun is not the kind of person to overlook any eventuality entirely plausible.

So Havieron is a done deal - we have clarity on the progress with regard to the Juri operations for 2022, it just remains to be seen what our plans for Scallywag and the other 100% tenements will be, It's curious to me that after the positive results from Scallywag earlier than we haven't made any concrete plans yet - I wonder if there might be some overlap with the negotiations in regard to Scally??

Anyway with the revelation yesterday in the email that things seem to be moving into the final phases of the negotiations then we hopefully shouldn't have too much longer to wait.

Enjoy the remainder of half term and the long weekend everyone - ATB Paddy

Agreed MFU - I can't see the sense in that rebalance either TBF.

I haven't got time to research the underlying index and how the rebalance was performed but the fact is they sold a big chunk insensitively last week which has pushed us down to where we are today. The good news is there seems to be a lot of appetite at these levels.

ATB - Paddy