Member Info for PaddyGall

These positions are contracts direct for Newcrest, but the contractors who are going to be developing the mine infrastructure are advertising for positions and saying they are long term +5 year positions.

https://www.seek.com.au/job/59338034?type=standard#sol=743129ce54729a55f2eddeeaa74b77d21f014a41

GLA - Paddy

50p might be acceptable for Havieron only - would be interesting to see the reaction of both the BOD and the shareholders if that were to happen.

I'm sure Shaun would make sure that MRE3 was published before an offer would be even considered so we could all get a better understanding of the metrics that would be used for the valuation. It would certainly make the rejection of the 5% for $60m look like the worst decision that NCM have ever made.

By my estimation 50p with circa 5billion shares in circulation would value 5% of Havieron at roughly $500m - can't see it happening personally but you can see why Shaun said it would need to be an "eye-watering" amount if NCM wanted to gain control of 100%.

ATB - Paddy

Australia's sovereign wealth fund increasing it's exposure to gold - all it needs is for these moves to start to trickle down to pension funds and PI funds and there could be big moves in the coming years.

https://wtvbam.com/2022/12/18/australias-sovereign-wealth-fund-buys-gold-commodities-as-shadow-of-1970s-looms/#.Y6BTRa60L1g.twitter

ATB - Paddy

@redtrader - what a load of tosh.

NCM refusing the 5% was the best thing that happened to GGP since Callum put the drill into HAD001, IMO. That measly $60m will be worth many 100's of millions of $'s over the coming years, they still have not found the edges of the orebody for Christ's sake man.

NCM tried to play cute and put a squeeze on GGP but they were outmanoeuvred and outflanked by Shaun when he got the funding in place quick smart after they refused the 5% and now Sandeep is paying for it. I'm sure he would have loved to have been there to see the first Havieron ore through the mill at Telfer and left his position on a high but he isn't going to be on the bread line so won't be getting any sympathy from this quarter.

This changes nothing in the short term - Havieron is still on the fast-track to be mined. When the new CEO takes their position then there's a possibility they will want to shake things up in the portfolio - if that happens then I expect Shaun and our high powered BOD to have various plans in place to deal with the consequences.

ATB - Paddy

The only way that NCM are walking away from Havieron is if Telfer goes up for sale as well IMO - the fate of both are completely intertwined now and the timeline / pathway has pretty much been hammered out with the decline problems behind us and NCM electing to do a proper job on the DFS using up to date drilling results rather than rehashing the PFS with results that would be almost 24 months out of date.

The new guy/girl won't be in place for a couple of months at the very earliest and then they will need time to settle into the position before any major decisions would be made so I don't really see any major changes in the short term IMO.

It will be business as usual for GGP, which means focussing on getting our MRE ready for release in the New Year although I'm sure Shaun will be keeping a close eye on developments as they ocur.

GLA - Paddy

I've seen some commentary from people that think NCM is more likely to be in the shop window now than GGP, especially with their high quality portfolio and their in house block caving expertise.

Interesting times....

Don't forget that there were more than the Newcrest offer on the table at the farm in stage of Havieron.

Gervaise and Callum decided that the best fit was Newcrest based on their experience and infrastructure in the region and hopefully they will ultimately be proved to be correct, but Sandeep wasn't the white knight out to rescue his junior partner.

There were other options on the table.

Sandeep was outed as a bully earlier this year and that sort of management is not acceptable in this era whatever you believe. It was only a matter of time once that was out in the public domain IMO.

It seems this has been known in industry circles for a while if you believe the press that the search has been going on for a few months already, I wonder what hastened his move before his replacement had already been found.

IMO there's no chance that SD would jump ship - in fact if this is an open secret then he's probably looking to see how we can turn this to our advantage.

Never a dull moment, ATB Paddy

Willem Middelkoop who runs the Commodities Discovery Fund and has been long GGP for years is giving Artemis some love this morning.

https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1602969086060789760?cxt=HHwWgICwiYL58b4sAAAA

ATB - Paddy

Hi Chartbuster,

Nice to see you're still keeping an eye on proceedings. Very encouraging results - although still lots to do and prove-up and funding will no doubt be an issue that needs to be addressed soon but what do you expect from a junior explorer with no income.

Still - just takes one HAD005 like hole and this SP will be history, that's the reason we are all invested here and at other junior specs.

GLA - Paddy

Very encouraging news for me at Apollo. After the duster results from there last year we now have evidence that there is mineralisation in the area.

Seems likely that the NW trending diorite dykes are now more important from a structural perspective that the NS dolerite dyke after both our Havieron North and ARV's Atlas holes showed up nothing significant.

This probably explains why GGP/NCM have decided to test the NW/SE trend further out at Havieron as we can see from the latest results which show HAD169 & HAD170 as pretty big step-out holes along strike from the main body.

https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1600760578926002176?s=20&t=-mFVEha2U3t6JHXTFz61wg

ATB - Paddy

Another set of solid growth results - filling in the gaps in the orebody and building confidence for the upgraded MRE.

The two drill traces that caught my eye were HAD169 & HAD170 - both awaiting results - these are testing the NW strike at extreme locations to the NW & SE. They will be results to watch out for in 2023.

Good to hear that the decline is now back on schedule and accelerating all the time - they have a much better understanding of what to expect as they continue through the permian.

No significant results from NOR02 and MECO which is disappointing but just goes to show how difficult it is to discover a Havieron and should make us appreciate even more how special this discovery is.

Very happy with the results and also all the feedback from the TH meeting last night - we are in good hands IMHO.

ATB - Paddy

Recommended by the board with a 40% premium or 10.5p?

I very much doubt Shaun or any of the board would be recommending an offer at that sort of level IMHO but WTFDIK.

I think he meant that the MRE resource update could coincide with the NCM report - if not then GGP are prepared to put out their own update.

The DFS would follow on hopefully by the end of the June quarter - using the new updated MRE resource.

That's my take on his commentary today - Paddy

New article out today from Charles Archer - not advice - DYOR.

https://investingstrategy.co.uk/stock-tips/the-2023-investment-case-for-greatland-gold-shares/

ATB - Paddy

Listen to Shaun mention about them continuing to understand the base metal structure within the deposit.

Hints, hints & more hints....

ATB - Paddy

Nice find Dip - I have shared it on Twitter too.

As alluded to - the delay shouldn't be too long and will be used to optimise the mining plan to allow them to extract as much potential as they can as they upgrade the 2mpta from the PFS to a minimum of 3mtpa. This should have a material effect on the NAV and IRR of the project as there should be minimal increases to the CAPEX although we need to be mindful of inflationary pressures since the PFS.

The big outlay on extending Telfer only makes sense to extend it long enough to still be in operation until the Havieron ore comes online. In the last quarter they were losing almost $200 / oz and I doubt that the head grade in the next cut-back is going to be much better. They need that high grade Havieron ore into the second train at Telfer asap.

Looking forward to seeing the updated plan in the New Year.

ATB - Paddy

Fantastic Mark - absolutely fits perfect with the tune. Love it......

He definitely said that @jaguarflush - I'm sure Dip will have the notes out asap but 100% sure of that as I replayed it a couple of times.

Also some interesting comments about "being the partner of choice" for JV partners that may want to divest some of their tenures. Could that mean that some of the majors with ground in and around us could be looking for Greatland to lead their exploration campaigns in the Paterson.

Worth noting that RIO have the ground directly to the North & South of Scallywag and FMG (Wyloo's parent company) also have ground in the Paterson area.

As people have continuously pointed out the new directors aren't here just for the 30% of Havieron - seems to be lots going on in the background IMO.

GLA - Paddy

@aim999 - yes that's the one, the very same one that their own resource upgrade in August then verified to within 1% of the earlier GGP number.

That says it all and proves that GGP know exactly what they have on their hands even if NCM aren't prepared to (for their own reasons).

ATB - Paddy

Love a bit of "empire building".....