Member Info for PaddyGall

The right of first refusal over Scallywag was only while the farm-in was active I believe. Now that we are in the JV phase of the agreements I'm pretty sure that right has expired.

ATB - Paddy

Wonderful news this morning - it was always a matter of time to vector in on the good stuff, still lots to get their teeth into from today's results but very, very encouraging.

Both Callum & the new exploration team, take a bow.

I think Wyloo will be very interested in these results today - suddenly their investment in GGP is looking even more & more like very good business.

GLA - Paddy

It's going to make their decision to NOT buy the 5% look very silly though Bamps, if suddenly Havieron data makes it into the public domain and it is as big as we all think and hope it will be....

I guess they can always make Sandeep into the scapegoat though.

Of course there would be dilution and additional debt but offset that with the current production at Telfer and then 100% of the production from Havieron in 12 months time and for the remainder of the lifetime of the mine.

If we had 100% of the mill at Telfer then it might open the possibility of blending the higher grade Havieron ore with the lower grades at Telfer to provide a medium grade mill feed that could make Telfer far more profitable than it currently is until higher rates could be achieved at Havieron.

They might decide to slim down the operation at Telfer and be happy with just the high grade from Havieron again until the higher rates could be achieved.

We could run the operation at Telfer far more efficiently (this is what SD has form for from his NS days) - it would give us huge flexibility and optionality, and if the gold / copper prices do rise then all that marginal ore at Telfer suddenly become very, very valuable again.

It's all about doing a deal that is accretive for shareholders, Shaun and the team will be all over this - as Sandgrounded says - let's wait and see what is to come but I for one am massively excited by the possibilities that are arising.

ATB - Paddy

I don't have a clue where the SP would go in the short term, but it would take a couple of years to prove up a gold deposit that size and by then we would have the FCF to carry on and develop it as a 100% standalone project.

That is the nirvana that Shaun will be aiming for - remember multi-asset, multi-billion pound company.

They have a JV with Imperial Metals at Red Chris but there was no mention of them either.

I wouldn't get too worried about it - Shaun will look after Greatland's interest in Havieron, he will have lots of champagne corks that will need popping in the near future IMO.

ATB - Paddy

Interestingly enough it would seem that our MD is out at the same conference in Miami this week although he doesn't appear to be presenting.

https://bmogmm.com/gmm/2.0/company-profile.aspx?id=14954

I'm sure he will be pressing the flesh with the great & the good in the Gold / Copper mining space over the next few days prior to his visit to London next week.

GLA - Paddy

Redtrader - I appreciate what you are saying and I'd be more than happy to see gold in August but I would stick to the guidance that Shaun gave as around March 2024 until otherwise updated.

They can't continue on past the exploration stage of the decline without the Stage 2 approval. The revised Stage 2 proposal has not been issued on the EPA website for public comment yet. The approval may well be fast-tracked like the Stage 1 was but there is a lot more involved in the approval process this time - mainly the new haulage road that will cut through some of the sand-dunes on route to Telfer.

The decline and mine development will hit the required targets now once the approval process does not get held up any further - that's probably why they are making sure all the stakeholders, including the local indigenous people are onside before publishing it. That will minimise the risk of any objection which could cause a delay.

ATB - Paddy

Great news on the decline advancement but not real surprise - Shaun said they were accelerating all the time and bang on cue, they've done ~300m since the last update.

Makes no difference in it is actual decline metres or other development - it's the number that is impressive. If they keep this progress up (no reason to think they won't) then they will have the exploration part of the decline completed before they get sign off on Stage 2 of the plan which they need to begin the stope development anyway.

I emailed Greatland and received confirmation that the exploration permit allows them to create the drilling platforms on top of the ore-body so they will be able to get the UG drilling rigs into place and start drilling the "bejaysus" out of the Northern breccia and the NW Pod. We will start to see a lot of results from around July/August time.

All good - looking forward to the updates from Shaun next week.

ATB - Paddy

So in essence they will need to make all the data available to NEM so they can complete their due diligence but making it public won't serve any purpose as it would be valued purely on the data and not on market reaction - even if everyone and their dog was shouting about the 20Moz monster that is Havieron - if the data doesn't show it as that then it will be valued appropriately.

This is what Shaun used to our advantage in the 5% negotiations (as he managed to get up to date drill data included) and in theory it could become beneficial to us again as the valuation that could be placed on Havieron is going to be limited yet again.

So Newcrest / Newmont bean counters will have a valuation against the 70% of Havieron and I guess a valuation of Telfer. They can't dispose of the 70% of Havieron without giving us right of LAST refusal and if they were to do so then Telfer would in effect become a huge liability on their books.

So in my mind there are only three outcomes - Newmont/Newcrest continue with the 70% of Telfer and the JV as agreed, Newmont/Newcrest decide to sell lock, stock & barrel and we are in position to somehow take advantage of that or Newmont/Newcrest decide to offer Shaun & us an "eye-watering" amount for our share of Havieron, because even though the due diligence may place a value on our 30% we are under no obligation to accept it.

So all-in-all - it's precisely as it was prior to the takeover bid, but perhaps with a little more uncertainty on our major partner's side. I'm confident that Shaun & the team have all bases covered and I know for a fact that he stated if a offer were to be made for our 30% then he would be issuing an updated MRE immediately - because market sentiment would be far more powerful for us than either of the 2 majors.

Nice and relaxed about the coming weeks & months - let's see that mining proposal published on the EPA website soon hopefully.

ATB - Paddy

I wholeheartedly agree Dip - Shaun has secured the 30% of Havieron regardless of the outcome of the NCM / NEM takeover bid (although that is looking more & more likely to fly IMO) and that is what both he & Wyloo will have originally based their business plans on.

The revenue generated there will allow them to develop their strategy - remember his answer to my question after the AGM - he said that the asset they "might" look to bring in may not be a producing asset but would have a clear pathway to production - they obviously have been scouring WA for the right high quality asset to bring into the portfolio to sit alongside Havieron.

Then there are the 100% assets. He clearly loves EG but has also said that they want to walk Bromus & Panorama along the exploration curve too and we still need to interpret and formulate plans to 2023 for both Scallywag & Rudall, along with plans for the Juri.

Then there is the curveball of the possibility of getting 100% of Havieron, while I won't be upset if we don't get it - the possibility is certainly mouth-watering...

I'm looking forward to seeing what NCM have to say on Wednesday night even more now - the fact that they haven't engaged yet leads me to think that they are pretty confident of producing some excellent results, who knows we may even get an updated resource with the half-yearly, although it's NCM so I wouldn't hold my breath.....

ATB - Paddy

The last sentence in that paragraph only underlines that also TT,

" We retain our enthusiasm for depth extensions on top of that, but with much of the first-build negotiations coming to an end pending perhaps debt, the new team opens the door to an exciting new growth phase: M&A, as the buyer, not the seller."

M&A, as the buyer, not the seller....

ATB - Paddy

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/simon-tyrrell-61214913_news-release-greatland-senior-leadership-activity-7028726662972276736-rRNv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Have a look at Simon Tyrrell's LinkedIn page.

Scroll down through his previous experiences and see that he was the Chief Plant Metallurgist at Telfer for two years 2004-2005.

Look at his experience at Northern Star for the past 6 years and ask yourself why he's leaving this senior position at a mid-tier Aussie gold producer to come to a small AIM listed developer.

Well it ain't just for 30% of Havieron, IMO.

ATB Paddy

Great insights from Callum into the geology of the Paterson region and the techniques that they use and can apply to the results to hone in on the fluid trap areas. He seems very confident that there is a system in the Black Hills and we are very close to it - mega exciting.

Then the second half where he is prepared to chat openly about the options that are on the table and regardless of the outcome - it is a win/win for Greatland. He is smiling like a Cheshire cat. I suppose the idea of dividends on 85million shares is a nice thought to look forward too as you bob about in your boat off the Perth coast.

Good luck to him - he deserves all that's coming his way.

ATB - Paddy

Agreed Lazypunter - you know what I really, really love about this morning?

It's funny how the whole Newmont thing has gone full circle since 2018 - it's almost like Karma and the mining Gods are on our side this time.

Shaun is a very, very astute and sharp businessman, I wish he was here when the original farm-in / JV was penned but we got the next best thing when he was chosen (by Callum & Gervaise TBF) to take on this stage of the development. I agree that the banks & instos will be clamouring to get on board with this company once the updated MRE & DFS are out there. Most investors will look at the management team first and then look at the asset - as a good team can maximise a mediocre asset but a crap team can screw up even the best asset.

I think we have the best of both world's - bring it on....

The next thing that we should see any day now would be the mining proposal for Stage 2 submitted to the EPA which should be open for comments for 10 days. This will give us a view of the mining plan, the plans for the infrastructure, the road to Telfer, the modifications required at Telfer to treat the Havieron ore, etc, etc

This will show us the amount of work that has been done behind the scenes to keep the Havieron project on track for first ore in 2024. Shaun said this should be submitted early in the March quarter so expecting it to drop any day now.

ATB - Paddy

Some paragraph's from an article just published.

"Should Newmont succeed in devouring Newcrest, it will no doubt want to own and expand the Cadia mine in NSW.
It will probably like the mix of immediate cashflow and future potential at PNG’s Lihir and will want the long-term optionality offered by Canada’s Red Chris and PNG’s Wafi-Golpu.
But it is harder to see Newmont having the patience for the more marginal Telfer mine in WA, even though the discovery of the Havieron gold and copper deposit nearby has revived its fortunes.
An auction for Telfer would attract plenty of attention, not least from mining billionaire Andrew Forrest, who has personally invested in the small explorer that found Havieron in Telfer’s hinterland – Greatland Gold."

“To defend a potential takeover, the Newcrest board may release additional information to the market on key projects such as Havieron, Red Chris and Golpu,” he said, in reference to three of Newcrest’s pre-revenue growth options.
“Non core assets might be considered for sale, such as Telfer-Havieron ... or Newcrest’s 32 per cent stake in Lundin Gold.”
Mr Morgan said Newcrest’s stake in Lundin could be worth $1.2 billion while its stakes in the province around Telfer and Havieron could fetch $1.9 billion."

Seems like a bargain to me $1.9billion for Telfer & Havieron and to consolidate the whole of the Paterson region.

So there you go - it's out in the public in black & white. Now it's time for Shaun's B&D team to go to work in a big way. Opportunities like this don't come along very often.

GLA - Paddy

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fcompanies%2Fmining%2Fnewmont-takes-a-bite-mid-caps-wait-for-the-crumbs-20230206-p5cicu

Cheers Reddirt - great to hear for you. I'm not that active on here these days myself TBF.

Your summary of the possible outcome may well come to fruition - only time will tell, but Shaun has prepared and put the team in place to deal with any eventuality that presents itself. I like the cut of his jib -

"fail to prepare" - "prepare to fail"

ATB - Paddy

What do people seriously think - all these mining industry experienced professionals who are currently holding down senior positions at major Australian companies are coming to an AIM tiddler for a jolly?

Shaun is putting down the foundations & building blocks for what will be a major force in Australian mining - these people can see the opportunity to get in at the start of the journey that has been sold to them by Shaun and the new board. Of course it has it's risks and nothing is guaranteed but the drive and ambition of these people will propel us to the next level.

"Investors" in the company should be getting behind these developments and be providing the support that the team needs. Shaun has conveyed his vision clearly over the past couple of years at numerous Town Hall meetings and Q&A sessions - if this is coming as a surprise to anyone then they have not been paying attention.

Good on you cobber - here's to the next 35-40 years.

ATB - Paddy