Member Info for 99icecream

In their recent note Align claim to have a "substantial interest" in MetalNRG (whereas in a recent note on Kore they claim to hold a "position"). Is anything known about their substantial interest ?

In the y/e 31/12/18 Accounts, Wadeville International not in Top 20 shareholders at End Feb 2019 (see Page 131)
In the y/e 31/12/19 Accounts, Wadeville International held 36,828,789 share or 2.39% at End Feb 2020 (see Page 148)
In the y/e 31/12/20 Accounts, Wadeville International held 48,482,326 share or 1.98% at End Feb 2021 (see Page 126)
In the y/e 31/12/21 Accounts, Wadeville International not in Top 20 shareholders at End Feb 2022 (see Page 122)

In the y/e 31/12/18 Accounts, Wadeville International not in Top 20 shareholders at End Feb 2019 (see Page 131)
In the y/e 31/12/19 Accounts, Wadeville International held 36,828,789 share or 2.39% at End Feb 2020 (see Page 148)
In the y/e 31/03/20 Accounts, Wadeville International held 48,482,326 share or 1.98% at End Feb 2021 (see Page 126)
In the y/e 31/03/21 Accounts, Wadeville International not in Top 20 shareholders at End Feb 2022 (see Page 122)

Note they if Wadeville International are a broker, they might be SA client shares.

Wadeville International have been invested for a while. In the Kore Accounts they list the top 20 shareholders. In the y/e 31/03/20 Accounts, Wadeville International held 36,828,789 share or 2.39% (for example).

Wadeville International

That was in May 2014 - By March 2015 they had abandoned their Mauritanian Iron Ore Project:-

Glencore abandons Mauritania iron ore project after $US1bn investment - March 12, 2015

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/glencore-abandons-mauritania-iron-ore-project-after-us1bn-investment-20150311-141cdg.html

However, note that they plan to extract ore 25 Million Tonnes per Annum ! - Which suggests a serious player in Zanaga might start higher than 12 Million Tonnes.

IMHO - A big part of the problem is the crazy high valuations these things come to the market on. e.g. I read the prospectus when Aston Martin was floated, on a similar P/E multiple as Ferrari - despite having only one profitable year in recent memory.

Why green iron ore may be the next big wave

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/why-green-iron-ore-may-be-the-next-big-wave

Hi Extrader

Zanaga has become a rather large position for me (after adding more shares when prices were significantly lower).
I added to another RoC stock - KP2 - which I hope will receive important news soon.

I think the jury is out on the question of if the restructuring in the Zanaga holding is "progress". It has some benefits for both sides as I mentioned. However, whatever happens in the future will still be decided by Glencore (which in my view is a good thing). I guess if you are just looking at the Zanaga share price then it is progress. I must admit that I have been able to reduce my Zanaga holding and take some profits as a result.

Your assumption here is that the "Nagle changeover" has precipitated the restructuring in the Zanaga holding. My assumption is that Glasenberg would have OKed the same deal had it been proposed during his tenure.

In my view the change has occurred due to the frustration of the Garbet/Guava shareholders, with the low Zanaga share price and the dilution required to raise money.

Glencore now has a better position than previously. It has 100% of the off-take and is still in effective control of the investment. In the event of a complete take-over of Zanaga, Glencore will walk away with more that 50% of the proceeds. In addition, if a serious partner (with the intention to develop Zanaga at scale) becomes interested then Glencore could remain a shareholder.

The Glasenberg comment about options (in December 2017) reflects his view that he would not sell out of Zanaga for a low price. If Gold rises in price 10%, Gold-miner shares will rise far more than 10%, in that sense a share in a miner acts like an option on the commodity.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2017-12-14-glencore-could-buy-if-the-price-is-right/

Jiving - As I remember after Glencore took over the Iron Ore fell substantially hitting a low (62% reference of $40 a Tonne in 2016). It was not until 2018 when iron ore prices rose sufficiently to make this project interesting. At that time Zanaga was assuming that a new deepwater Iron Ore port was going to be provided for shipment. Only in 2020, when a Floating Port concept had been shown to be a practical alternative was this project really ready for development / sale.

IMHO etc.

Jiving - IMHO rather unfair. Without a coup in Guinea and Covid we would have been at this point rather sooner.

Extrader

(2) The Chinese ?
(4) RTZ ?

How about Baowu and RTZ :-

https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-baowu-seeks-deeper-ties-with-rio-tinto-on-iron-ore-trade/

The mention of delapidated rail links reminds me of the Sappro situation in Congo - below is my post from last mid last year:-

Sappro attempted to export iron ore via pointe noire in 2019, but experienced multiple problems with the existing route. In 2020 mining was halted. They then set up a project to add to / replace / renovate the rail link - awarding the contract to a consortium headed by Deutsche Bahn in 2021. The rail link will take 5 years to complete and is planned to ship 2 million Tonnes per annum initially (rising to 12 million).

Funding for the rail project was sought in 2021 (circa US$ 1 Billion). As far as I am aware there hs been no news of the rail project starting.

If Sapro has an off-take agreement with Glencore (to help fund the rail project) why would that have any significance ?

19 April 2019
Congo Republic ships first iron ore ahead of expected production boom

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congorepublic-iron-idUSKCN1RV14N

25 Jan 2020

Shipping of Iron Ore by rail is halted due to multiple problems with shipping by this route. Sappro denies rumours that the project is abandoned.

https://www.sapromayoko.com/pr-25-01-2020

16 July 2021

Thelo and DB to build $US 1bn iron-ore line in the Congo

Construction expected to take 5 years

This will allow Sapro Mayoko to export 2 million tonnes of ore per year, potentially increasing to 12 million tonnes over the next four years.

https://constructionreviewonline.com/news/new-us-1bn-mayoko-to-pointe-noire-port-railway-line-underway-in-congo/

FMG could do Zanaga now, but (IMHO) Belinga will be small scale til the mine (and indeed the railway) is properly surveyed and costed.

Chinese - (the Carlsberg option !) - they don't care about the price of the ore - indeed they would like a surplus so quality iron ore is cheap.

Does turning the concentrate in pellets save any weight ? - I thought the plan might involve creating pellets at the Pointe-Noire SEZ using gas.

BTW - Now that Glencore has the offtake agreement - there is an additional reason why they would want to see this done at scale (not EPP).