Member Info for 99icecream

ALBi Consider yourself filtered. IMHO posters on here have tried to remain polite even when they disagree with you.

The deal has several advantages over the current situation.
i) Any sale of the Zanaga mine could be far easier, quicker and straight forward.
ii) If Zanaga wants to develop the mine they can borrow against the off-take in addition to getting the miners / shute builders etc. to part fund the the mine development so that less new equity would be needed.
iii) The shares will be more liquid, and will attract buyers who previously were put off by the lack of action and information.

Hi - Although Glencore will have only 48.25% of the shares I would love to know how you thnk that Zanaga can do anthing other than what Glencore agrees to. A good thing IMHO, it means that all of the directors will need to be agreed with whatever the strategy is.

Ivor - I was talking about the new shares.
Glencore had 19.7 million , added 29.2 million now own 47.9 million
La Mancha had 38.0 million , added 24.3 million now own 62.3 million
Helikon had 0 million, added 21.5 million now own 21.5 million

In the recent share issue approx 77.9 million new shares were issued. We know that Glencore have 29.2 million and La Mancha 24.3 million of these. Now we know that Helikon have 21.5 million , leaving about 2.9 million unaccounted for so far. It seems that Helikon bougt 11.7 million (4.36%) outright and the balance 9.8 million (3.65%) using borrowed money (via a swap). Helikon are a hedge fund (long short) and are probably ttaking the position that Horizonte will outperform relative to other miners.

Extrader IMHO a marketing agreement would entail providing advice on the best option (e.g. selling via a long term , short term or spot) and then finding a buyer. There would be no obligation to follow the advice (or indeed to go with Glencore's buyer) but there would be the obligation to pay Glencore regardless. So if Zanaga was sold to BHP, Rio etc. they would need to factor in the "Royalty" payment to Glencore if they chose to market the ore themselves.

Perhaps more clearly - Its a Royalty not an Off Take ?

Hi Mitch984, Extrader

But if I am correct and the "marketing agreement" means that you pay Glencore for their efforts in selling ore regardless of how and to who it is sold - then Zanaga could be bought by any entity. The buyer would just need to factor into their calculations the value of the payment to Glencore for marketing.

Glencore has a marketing agreement which means they get a % of the sale price (of ore) regardless. Is this not effective the same as a royalty ? - Is this a way that Glencore holds less that 50% of the equity, but gets more than 50% of the sale proceeds ?

Fertilizer industry looking forward to boom years for potash

https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/18495-fertilizer-industry-looking-forward-to-boom-years-for-potash

IMHO there is a lot depending on the outcome of this deal. It would be evidence that deals can be done in Republic of Congo outside of the oil sector. The oil sector is controlled by SNPC which is both heavily indebted and mired in rumours of corruption).

Kanga Potash are still looking to raise funds for their venture (~ US$ 500 million). IMHO they would be able to do so if/when Kore is sorted. Note that Potash is trading at about $850 in Brazil currently accourding to Kanga.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/strategically-located-congo-has-raw-materials-required-to-become-leading-fertiliser-hub-2022-11-10
https://northafricapost.com/62584-fertile-territory-mineral-rich-congo-poised-to-become-leading-fertilizer-hub.html

LT inflation is probably the least of the "new issues" that might impact the EPC. The dollar is strong, vs. the renminby, low inflation in China where most of the equipment is coming from so this looks good from SEPCO point of view.

IMHO the actions of the mines minister are much more about his own future if this project is delayed. He has achieved little in his 17 years in post. Brad's weazel words regarding the recent EPS issues won't calm his nerves. I can't see Congo "taking the licence back" (after all this is not going well in the Sundance et al. iron ore mines).

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2021/08/20/mines-minister-and-sassou-favourite-pierre-oba-besieged-by-irate-investors,109686074-ar2

IMHO if Kore wanted to sell they would talk to Vale not the Chinese. Vale sold most of their Potash interests when the price of Potash was low, but now Brazil desperately needs a reliable supply of Potash.

The Danakili deal was done at about one third of NPV(10) which would would imply a number > 30p for Kore. IMHO

IMHO a sale would be unlikely at this point. But if it were to happen it would be a large multiple to the current share price. See for example the recent deal by Danakili (announced 3 October 2022). Also, SEPCO would not be the obvious buyer of Kola.

https://www.mining.com/danakali-to-sell-stake-in-flagship-colluli-potash-project-in-eritrea/

IMHO a sale would be unlikley at this point. But if it were to happen it would be a large multiple to the corrent price. See for example the resent deal by Danakili (announced 3 October 2022).

https://www.mining.com/danakali-to-sell-stake-in-flagship-colluli-potash-project-in-eritrea/

Thanks. Very interesting. I recall that China Baowu had an interest in Pointe Noire (10 September 2021) which required access to a gas supply (because "the China Baowu Company intends to invest outside the Pointe-Noire special economic zone in the exploitation of iron".).

Do you have a link for that (it does not appear on the Arise IIP site) ?

https://www.ariseiip.com/news/