Member Info for 99icecream

Albie - you are obviously a cynic in the Oscar Wilde sense !

Sappro attempted to export iron ore via pointe noire in 2019, but experienced multiple problems with the existing route. In 2020 mining was halted. They then set up a project to add to / replace / renovate the rail link - awarding the contract to a consortium headed by Deutsche Bahn in 2021. The rail link will take 5 years to complete and is planned to ship 2 million Tonnes per annum initially (rising to 12 million).

Funding for the rail project was sought in 2021 (circa US$ 1 Billion). As far as I am aware there hs been no news of the rail project starting.

If Sapro has an off-take agreement with Glencore (to help fund the rail project) why would that have any significance ?

19 April 2019
Congo Republic ships first iron ore ahead of expected production boom

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congorepublic-iron-idUSKCN1RV14N

25 Jan 2020

Shipping of Iron Ore by rail is halted due to multiple problems with shipping by this route. Sappro denies rumours that the project is abandoned.

https://www.sapromayoko.com/pr-25-01-2020

16 July 2021

Thelo and DB to build $US 1bn iron-ore line in the Congo

Construction expected to take 5 years

This will allow Sapro Mayoko to export 2 million tonnes of ore per year, potentially increasing to 12 million tonnes over the next four years.

https://constructionreviewonline.com/news/new-us-1bn-mayoko-to-pointe-noire-port-railway-line-underway-in-congo/

There is no time pressure - despite the comment that "The Claim is proceeding at pace ...." .

Poland will make a further submission, then there is a hearing ............. You have months to decide if you want to buy or sell.

Guinea halts Simandou iron ore project, seeks new partners

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/5/guinea-halts-simandou-iron-ore-project-mulls-talks-with-new-partners

There a 3.4 billion shares here and very little turn-over (even on a busy day) - so I doubt the change in share price tells you much about the opinion of those of us who are invested.

Whats up Albie ? On Sunday you said that this was a "very possible 10 bagger" - today its worth "no where near 3p" !

Guinea halts Simandou iron ore project again

https://www.mining.com/guinea-halts-simandou-iron-ore-project-again/

A note about the NPV calculations.

When they calculate an NPV ( e.g. NPV(10) ) we are using real rates of interest for discounting (i.e. a discount rate not including an adjustment for inflation. The assumptions about revenues and costs are in todays values.

An alternative is to assume what future inflation will be (e.g. 5%) and project costs and revenues adjusted for expected inflation of 5% AND also, discount the cash flows at a nominal rate of interest, i.e. 15% (10% real + 5% inflation). The result should be the same.

Lack of high-quality iron ore supply threatens steel's green push

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/lack-of-high-quality-iron-ore-supply-threatens-steel-s-green-push-70947714

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/kore-potash/kore-potash-signs-deal-for-the-construction-of-flagship-kola-potash-project/

Note that the (potential) success at KP2 is all about the tensions between the BRICS and the west. Its not about how KP2 did or didn't do to advance the project or even Congos influence. Potash prices are high due to Belarus / Russia sanctions. KP2 will be dug (pumped) by the Chinese and the potash will be shipped to Brazil.

Possibly, but note that KP2 is also priced at a massive discount to its potential value.

IMHO - the issue is very simple. What does China want to do in the Iron Ore / Steel sector ? Until this becomes clear, non of the other players will want to make a significant investment. China has a dominant position in many "strategic commodities" and wants to extend this to others (e.g. Iron Ore) and has the resources to do so.

It is a distinct possibility that China will put Simandou on hold until after Doumbouya is replaced by an elected civiliam administration in 3 to 4 years time.

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220501-guinea-junta-leader-mamady-doumbouya-decides-on-39-month-transition

The repeated threat to cancel mining licences is simply absurd. Who (other than the Chinease) would invest in such an expensive project ?

"The Guinean authorities have previously warned that the companies risked losing their mining licences if they failed to meet a tight construction timeline for the Simandou project."

Guinea gives Simandou iron ore mine developers 14-day deadline

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/guinea-gives-simandou-iron-ore-mine-developers-14-day-deadline-2022-06-19/

Just an observation on potash prices, because the information is poor and often misleading.

Prices in Brazil have been recently very high (e.g. $1,250 / Tonne in April 2022) because the Russia/ Ukraine situation has distorted supply at the time when Potash is most needed there. Perhaps a better guide to prices generally is the World Bank number which is based on prices in Florida. This was $562.50/Tonne in April 2022 - a 170% primium to its price the previous April. Since April, suppliers have moved Potash from other markets, particularly the northern hemisphere (where the season is 6 months different to Brazil).

On 23 March 2019, KO2 received an EPC for the Kola Project - it was 23 days late !

In any event it is the financing RNS that will move the share price (IMHO).

IMHO you can't draw any sensible conclusions from the selling of £10ks worth of shares in this illiquid stock. It could be a reaction to the KO2 RNS that didn't arrive before the end of May. It could be caused by bear markets in stocks / forthcoming recessions etc. PI's do sell very good investments (particularly the illiquid ones) when their stock portfolio losses become excessive.

BTW Trades at 1.142 are buys.

During the Covid lockdown many of us realised that we did not need to be in the office everyday. So they may need less space than before. You really cannot read anything into the move - IMHO.