Member Info for 99icecream

Marcus - Why does it matter who owns / funds the port ? - It is good if ADP are prepared to do so. Previously, none of the major projects were interested in using the port, so it didn't get funded. I doubt at this stage if ADP are prepared to fund the port as originally intended (i.e. $2 billion).

Note that post CODIC there were talks between Congo and Baowu about the SEZ (10 Sept 2021). Congo were prepared to guarantee the price of Gas for Baowu, if they were prepared to invest. I took that to mean that Baowu were interested in Pellett production in the SEZ.

A couple of thoughts about the implications of these two projects:

Firstly, Millenial Potash would not be investing here unless they were confident of a good outcome.

Secondly, Luyan des mines Congo is developing a mine close to the Kore site. There maybe some benefits to this (e.g. sharing costs of the Jetty / Industrial Zone) etc.

So my current view is that, China (probably as Baowu / RTZ) are odds on favourites. However, nothing will happen until its obvious that the Chinese economy is back on a growth track.

I think the situation is more subtle than Mitch suggests.

Because Glencore own the offtake rights they are not indifferent to who develops the mine as the value of their offtake is directly related to the production volume. So only developers wanting to allocate a large sums to bring Zanaga fully into production need apply. Their 48.6% still gives them effective control as its almost impossible the get the remaining 51.4% to vote against them.

Well yes and no.

Your prices look about correct for end April 2023 vs. end March 2023 in Brazil. However, Brazil is southern hemisphere so prices at this time have little relevance as little is bought at this time of year. By comparison the price in US end April was about $ 625 and in UK $ 700 (£ 560). Price is Brazil have fallen due to dramatically lower sales of MOP as farmers could not profit at ~$800 / $900 MOP and therefore used little or none.

When the Kola study was announced (6 April 2021) this was when prices were about $430 in the US, having risen from ~ $300 in October 2020 (i.e. prices rising from $300 made the Kola project attractive).

The famous Align valuation (of 12 May 2021) = 11.22p a share was done assuming a price of $ 360/t CFR Brazil.

Another potash project launched recently is Millennial Potash. This one is just north of Kore, just over the border in Gabon. This is early stage and Millennial have a different strategy. They have a track record in developing potash projects that are then sold onto larger miners. They plan to drill their prospect this year to evaluate its potential. In the video their plans in Gabon are outlined and the reasons why West African potash is seen as as a good prospect are explained.

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8lg126

https://millennialpotash.com/projects/millennial-potash-project/

Buses !

This was found by allthatguff, and posted on ZIOC.

Oba the mines minister held a meeting to plan for the launch of the Mboukoumassi permit construction phase (in June 2023).

Its another Congo potash project adjacent to both the Kore Permit and the Kanga Permit areas about 25 km from the coast to the south east of Kola. It is behind the nothern end of the Kanga permit area.

https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/mines-6-000-emplois-prevus-dans-le-projet-sel-de-potasse-148483

Kore and Kanga (not Kore and Kola) !

FWIW - Nguesso Jr, might be referencing the "ports" planned by Kore, Kanga and Zanaga further north along the coast.

Kore and Kola each plan to each have their own jetty adjacent to potash mine sites where barges can be filled for transfer to ships offshore. In the case of Kore the plan is to transfer to a supramax 50,000 T vessel 11 miles offshore.

A possibility is for some product to be diverted (by barge) to the mole port point indienne for further (tax free) processing . Potash, phosphate and natural gas processed to NPK fertilzer; Iron ore and Natural Gas used to create Iron Ore pellets etc.

Well said Fluffy. Natural gas is also worth a mention.

https://energynews.pro/en/congo-lng-enis-innovative-project-to-transform-the-country-into-a-natural-gas-exporter/

More from the archives ! Regarding the history of the port project.

https://china.aiddata.org/projects/30501/

https://www.crbc.com/site/crbcEN/77953/info/2016/46841231.html

BTW This is the original plan for a port "8km north of Pointe Noire". Plans change of course. FYI a "Mole Port" is a long pier that goes out perpendicularly from the land into deeper water and ships tie up against it.

http://www.halcrowsea.com/Projects/152928980272.html

LT As regards Sepco, they were introduced by Summit of whom we know little. We don't know if (for example) the subject of guarentees was ever discussed between Summit and Sepco. I have seen a few occasions in the past where a small firm of consultants claims to be able to bring in Finance and/or Partners to a project (e.g. Barryroe Offshore Energy - formerly Providence). Summit have at least delivered on their promise.

LT - Perhaps I should have been clearer. The annual report clearly states that the Group will have "insufficient funds to meet its current planed activities" which I take to mean spending at the current rate (of 1.2 million a quarter). It would be sensible to cut the extra $ 900 k immediately. If you like I am saying that even in the worst case Kore are ok this year.

LT - We don't know why the EPC is delayed (although the hint is, that it is regarding the Parent Guarantee). I don't expect it will be delayed for long but I just don't know. However, I am sure Brad knows.

Logically, if might be a long delay, then Kore will halt all investment spending and need < US$ 1 million a year of running costs (or 3 years money).

If its a short delay, then US$ 1.2 million a quarter gives them 9 months.

As regards the "Going Concern" statement. Here companies must show that they can reasonably expect to have sufficient cash to meet out goings until the next annual report. They will support this with cash that they have, assets they might reasonably sell if necessary etc. etc. It does not mean a) that they will maintain that level of spending regardless or b) that they intend selling the assets.

I see dilution as a minor risk. I also see little prospect that they would sell DX (which might turn out to be a spectacular investment when the balance of DX and DX North are explored).

All IMHO etc.

Kropz. Hannam had a valuation of 85p in January 2019.

Kropz. The usual story. Floated at a crazy valuation (40p Nov 2018). Two projects Hinda in Congo and Elandsfontainin South Africa. South African one the priority. Market price has steadily fallen (recent low near 2p).

LT For me the most interesting part of the recent RNS was the support from Sepco / PowerChina that Kore has received. I don't expect any further issues from the Minister as long as Kore have this support:

Key members of the Consortium, including SEPCO and PowerChina, have independently written to the Ministry, and met with them in-person, to assist in establishing their credentials and experience. The feedback to us from the Ministry is that these visits have been appreciated and are assisting the Ministry to better understand the Kola Project and the capability of the Consortium members.

R o C has Potash (Kore, Kanga), Phosphates(Kropz) and Natural Gas (ENEL). So will be in a good position to export all three as Combined [NPK - Nitrogen, Phosphate and Potassium (Potash)] fertilizers. This would create more employment and value added on R o C and would provide another sales route for Kore.

https://www.fertilizerseurope.com/fertilizers-in-europe/how-fertilizers-are-made/

https://northafricapost.com/62584-fertile-territory-mineral-rich-congo-poised-to-become-leading-fertilizer-hub.html