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Communities have been waiting for 2/3 years for compensation, surely the Ghana gov and MIIF are going to want to get this on the road asap. We will surely have clarity by the end of this month, in or out elevra… failing that MIIF will increase their stake and assore have been extremely quiet in all this, no buyout offer, no JV for Ivory Coast, no more purchasing of shares. Perhaps they already know the outcome and are waiting patiently to make there next move but want MIIF to claim their stake before moving in which would make sense instead of having to restart negotiations.

3.5p finish today

Warrants, look at all the round numbers.

There was never a spike to sell into on sell on news.

If anyone thinks the US market is corrupt all they need to do is take a look at the LSE, it’s laughable.

Depends on if any warrants sell into the rise, hopefully they understand if they wait they can get a higher price.

‘In addition, the Company has issued 3.4 million new Ordinary Shares to a service provider, as per contract arrangement, for settlement of outstanding fees of £51,000 from the 2025 Fundraise and broker services‘ I still think the 3m sell was these selling on the spike.

Could easily break 5p this week with MRE and no warrants being exercised.

I’ve gone full circle here believe it or not, for elevra to completely leave this investment would be the stupidest decision possible. They know the amount of takeover approaches Atlantic has had, they hold 32.5m shares. $20m @60p. When Atlantic goes, the buyers coming for elevras stake next. Even if they reduce their stake to 30% @ the same value of MIIFs 6% for $27.9m it’s worth $139.5m.. best to have a foot in the door at least.

And saying that, for a potential buyer why aren’t they striking now before elevra get that foot in the door and forcing them out?

I’d like to see a headline mentioning lithium supply bound for US in doubt over elevras commitment, that will really put the spotlight on them.

I’ve never doubted the project just the execution, that structure to me seems like a benefit to all parties. Total cost to elevra would be $61.5m ish. As opposed to $116.5m for a 10.5% stake reduction.

Not forgetting elevra still own 32.5m Atlantic shares, if this new JV structure was agreed it makes ALL more attractive. 60p buyout for Atlantic would give elevra $20m and still hold 30% of ewoyaa.

-Atlantic keeps 43.5% instead of 40.5% after MIIF buy-in.

-elevra reduce its stake to 30% (reduced buy in from $70m to $35m upfront)

-MIIF 13.5% (increased buy in from $27.9m to $62.77m upfront)

-Ghana gov 13%

Elevra and MIIF both put $35m upfront and then monthly cash calls. Atlantic keep 3% more than if MIIF had originally bought 6%, our cost is then is around $38m… we’ve secured $16m roughly and £20m if we’re absolutely stuck for options but could easily find $30m upfront from an offtake deal.

Increased state participation, less upfront costs for elevra and thy keep a decent chunk, Atlantic hold onto 3% more than original deal and the upfront cash stays the same. Dink dank doo. Everyone’s a winner.

Nobody is trying to manifest it, that’s exactly what it is. They owe us $6m from what they were obligated to pay us towards other feasibility costs ie feldspar studies and optimisations etc. We have covered their costs to increase the value of the project and now they want a hand out… Lucas Dow said they aren’t happy paying the lion share of the capex and nothing will move until the JV is restructured. The only way they reduce their capex is to lower their stake and MIIF increase theirs.

We’d be incredible lucky if some interested offtakers from 2+ years ago haven’t sought supply deals elsewhere.

The money has been owed since piedmont were the JV, obviously it’s increased since then but it’s more something elevra have inherited. Because it’s not part of the stage 3 earn in I can’t see it being a delay, it’ll be an arbitration that runs along in the background after elevra have either earned in, renegotiated or relinquished their stake in the project.

The only way I see elevra committing is if MIIF increase their stake, lowering the upfront cost and monthly cash calls instead.

I.e

Atlantic keeps 43.5% instead of 40.5% after MIIF buy-in.

elevra reduce its stake to 30% (reduced buy in from $70m to $35m)

MIIF 13.5% (increased buy in from $27.9m to $62.77m)

Ghana gov 13%

Then share the rest of the costs as per normal.

Thursday would be best, wouldn’t make sense to spike the share price before US investors really know what it’s about. Inform them, oh and by the way MRE is imminent you don’t want to miss out…

To be gone by mid may would be 1.6m per day. You saw what a 3m sell did yesterday… decent volume on MRE will definitely help but the weeks after that will drop the SP.

As per a raise it strengthens the sheet for funding discussions, the current grant will only go so far and won’t pay for general workings of the company. Plus if we want to quickly advance the fluorspar&gallium we’ll need more. Only my opinion.

While the initial MRE will hopefully cause a spike im not expecting an immediate re-rate. The 2p warrants are going to be aggressively sold up until August, I also think there’s going to be a need for further dilution once MRE has dropped.

Not a solid benchmark but the last time Imminent was used news came out 3 days later. It is looking like next week. Hopefully before the conferences to show it off.

Seconds, minutes or days? There’s a big difference between those 😂

‘In addition, the Company has issued 3.4 million new Ordinary Shares to a service provider, as per contract arrangement, for settlement of outstanding fees of £51,000 from the 2025 Fundraise and broker services’

I imagine it’s this.

40m@1.5p.

16m@ 2p.

2.5m@ 5p left.

I’m basing that off RNS’

2p warrants expire in August so I imagine they will be aggressively selling upon any rise, it’ll be hard for the breaks to come off until cleared

My guess is warrant holders taking advantage of the share price since the war began paired with uncertainty causing less buying has dropped it to these levels, along with our close link to the US. 7/8p looking like the new bottom, plenty of good news around the corner.

That’s literally down to lithium tailwinds and nothing the board has accomplished.

It is a masterclass, 17p 5/6 years ago to 14.5p now.

Lucas Dow has said priorities are NAL 100% owned and get 100% of the benefits… you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.