RE: Paul Scott -Stockopedia report5 May 2021 15:54
My opinion - this all looks good to me. BOO tends to guide cautiously, then upgrade expectations as the year progresses.
It’s clear that lockdowns were a mixture of positive & negatives. Also note that BOO actually continued to trade very well when the re-opening of physical retail happened last summer. Plus there’s less competition on physical High Streets now.
No sign of margins eroding, despite extra costs of cleaning up the Leicester supply chain. Gross margin rose slightly, from 54.0% to 54.2%. I think that’s because Leicester was used for speed, and wasn’t low cost. So margins could go up in future, as more product is imported from Asia.
Broker consensus is currently 10.7p EPS for FY 02/2022. BOO normally comfortably beats forecasts, which are raised throughout the year. I think the new brands could begin to really kick in later this year, and beyond. Hence I’m working on the assumption 12p+ is more likely for the current year. At 326p per share, the PER would be 27 times - which is a bargain, for such a strongly growing business, with almost unlimited growth runway internationally, and with multiple brands.
That doesn’t even factor in future years’ growth. I remain of the view that BOO shares are the ultimate “coffee can” shares, to hold forever. This is likely to be a very much larger business in a few years’ time.
I don't know what the short term share price will do - we've seen that it's extremely volatile & unpredictable, hence why I ignore it.
Broker update - a note from Zeus Capital has just hit my inbox, via Research Tree. This starkly demonstrates that BOO shares are priced completely wrong, given the growth track record & prospects. Consider these latest forecasts:
FY 02/2022: Revenues £2,194m, Adj PBT £185m, Adj diluted EPS 11.81p (PER of 26.8, at 316p per share)
FY 02/2023: Revenues £2,741m, Adj PBT £240m, Adj diluted EPS 15.31p (PER of 20.6, at 316p per share)
How does that valuation make sense? It's ludicrously cheap for a group with such a strong growth record. I think the market is offering us a wonderful bargain today. Obviously DYOR, as usual.