ic tipped cont.15 Sep 2021 09:57
That’s an incredibly low carrying value for a 15,281-plot land bank. To put it into some perspective, the sale of 200 plots of land to two national housebuilders at the end of the financial year accounted for majority of the £15m increase in other income Springfield booked in its accounts. Moreover, with interest rates at record lows, and private housing demand outstripping supply, then both house prices and land prices should continue to trend upwards.
ensibly, Springfield continues to invest in its strategic land bank, acquiring 150 hectares of land at a site at Newton Grange in Edinburgh’s commuter belt for the development of 1,000 new homes. The strategic land was purchased for a bargain basement £2.6m, and that includes a farm house, too. A train station takes commuters to the city withing 15 to 20 minutes, so the location is ideal. The directors can continue to to do so as net debt was slashed last year from £70.9m to £20.8m, so balance sheet gearing is only 19 per cent.
Importantly, shareholders are being rewarded as the dividend has been raised from 2p to 5.75p a share including a final dividend of 4.45p, the pay-out covered 2.5 times by underlying earnings per share (EPS) of 14.4p. Analysts at Progressive Equity Research expect a dividend of 6p a share in the 2021/22 financial year, so the prospective dividend yield is just shy of 4 per cent. The estimate is based on EPS of 14.8p which factors in 1,057 completions with a higher weighting to affordable housing in the mix. Adjusting for the aforementioned land sale, Springfield’s underlying pre-tax profit is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in the current year. There’s certainly scope to make further land deals, but analysts have not factored them into their estimates.
Springfield’s robust trading prospects, solid asset backing and potential for both earnings and dividend growth were key reasons why I included the shares, at 135.6p, in my 2021 Bargain Shares Portfolio. The investment case is even stronger now given the high level of the group’s forward order book, and scope to release substantial hidden balance sheet value from land holdings. Analysts NAV estimates of 117p (May 2022), 128p (May 2023) and 144p (May 2024) only factor in the net profits retained after dividend payments (6p in 2022, 6.8p in 2023, and 7.5p in 2024), further highlighting the progressive value accretion for shareholders.
Importantly, Springfield also ticks the right boxes with its ESG credentials. Around 90 per cent of homes are timber built and utilise in house manufacturing, and half use environmentally friendly air sourced heat pumps. This gives the group a competitive advantage over rivals looking to adopt such build practices.
Priced on around 10 times earnings, offering a near 4 per cent prospective dividend yield, and rated on 1.3 times forward book value, the shares are modestly rated for a company that is forecast to deliver 29 per cent EPS growth over the 2022-24 forecast period. Target 220p