RE: Volume26 Jan 2022 06:26
IC review:
Shares in Aim-traded financial software provider Arcontech (ARC:74p) have been massively de-rated since the company issued a profit warning in late November after one customer decided to scale back its market data spend and another decided not to renew its contract because it is switching to a solution in a legacy, bundled contract.
The two changes are unrelated, but in terms of revenue they account for £0.3m of Arcontech’s last reported annual revenue of £3m. House broker finnCap lowered its revenue estimates by 6 and 11 per cent to £2.8m and £2.9m, respectively, for the 12 months to 30 June 2022 and 2023.
Furthermore, the company’s incremental operating margin on new sales is around 60 per cent, so any contract wins or losses have an accentuated impact on profits. This explains why finnCap cut its current year pre-tax profit estimate by 17 per cent to £0.8m and now only expects a flat result in the 2022/23 financial year. On this basis, EPS to fall by from 7.9p in 2020/21 to 6p.
Arcontech’s strong defensive characteristics (recurring licence fees account for 93 per cent of annual revenue) had been a major bull point, so the loss of two customers has clearly undermined investor confidence. The timing is incredibly frustrating, too. That’s because the company’s small sales team has been strengthening the qualified pipeline of potential prospects, and the directors note “renewed client interest in new business projects”. Travel restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic had made converting the robust pipeline of opportunities difficult in the near term, but as these restrictions are now being lifted then it should augur well for the company to make up the lost ground. This is still a realistic possibility in my view.
Furthermore, the de-rating has been so savage since I covered the half-year results (‘Bargain shares: On the hunt for value’, 6 September 2021), that Arcontech’s £5.4m (40.5p) net cash pile now equates to more than half its £9.8m market capitalisation. This means a business that is still making £0.8m operating profit and generating free cash of £0.6m a year is being valued on a cash-adjusted PE ratio of 5.5. FinnCap is pencilling in a current year annual payout of 3p a share, which gives a prospective dividend yield of 4.1 per cent. The free-cash-flow yield is more than 6 per cent.
The shares are now firmly in bargain basement territory and the company is a bid target as well given Arcontech’s £4.4m enterprise value equates to only 5.5 times operating profit estimates. Recovery buy.