Paf9 Feb 2022 17:31
Nicely ticking up. Here’s an extract from the last Edison report. You can read the full report by registering.
Valuation: Everything points to 30p per share
Pan African is cheap relative to both its historical trading record and its peers. Our core valuation of the company is 41.79c/share (30.42p/share) cum-div. Stated alternatively, we calculate that investors buying Pan African’s shares, cum-div, at a price of 17.50p per share, will enjoy an internal rate of return on their investment of 21.8% per year over the next 18 years, until FY39, in US dollar terms. In addition, our core valuation rises by an additional 13.5%, to 47.43c/share (34.53p/share) once next level growth projects – and in particular, the Mintails/Mogale assets – are taken into account. To this must then be added the value of c 19.2m underground Witwatersrand ounces, which we estimate could lie anywhere in the range of 0.22–5.24c to take the total to 47.65– 52.67c/share (34.69–38.34p/share). Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised EPS ratio of 8.9x in the period FY10–21 is applied to our FY22 and FY23 forecasts, it implies a share price of 32.15p in FY22 followed by 32.99p in FY23. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its South Africa- and London-listed gold mining peers on 86.1% of comparable common valuation measures (31 out of 36 individual measures) if our forecasts are applied over the next two years or 80.6% if consensus forecasts are applied (see Exhibit 13 on page 12). Thus, applying PAF’s peers’ average year 1 P/E ratio of 9.2x to our forecast normalised HEPS forecast of 4.99c/share for FY22 implies a share price for the company of 33.3p at prevailing forex rates, while applying its peers’ average year 2 P/E ratio of 8.6x to our forecast normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) forecast of 5.12c/share implies a share price of 32.0p in FY23.