Member Info for 28jaczar01

Ducati2…..this sounds just like another potential “Rabbit pulled out of the hat” RNS that could be coming from Petrofac in the coming weeks (refer my last post) 😉

The strong RNS on Friday was in my view the start of a major campaign of good news RNS that PETROFAC are lining up ready to be issued progressively in the coming weeks.

I am starting the ball rolling here on the BB over the weekend whilst we are passing time eagerly awaiting for the start of trading next week by offering up a robust suggestion with rationale for one of the potential upcoming Rabbit Out Of The Hat RNS that I can foresee to be issued shortly as follows:

RNS HEADLINE:

“SALE OF PETROFAC’S OPERATING ASSETS (NONE CORE) IN MALAYSIA TO ENQUEST FOR XXX MILLION POUNDS”

RATIONALE:

Those of you with long memories will know that ENQUEST was a spin-off of various operating assets held by PETROFAC back over a decade ago. The long standing CEO of ENQUEST since the spin-off was a former senior manager at PETROFAC who remains close to Asfari. To demonstrate the close ties that remain between the two companies and their senior management it is noted that it has always been PETROFAC doing ops & maintenance support contracts for ENQUEST assets.

ENQUEST already has some MALAYSIA based operating assets and to expand upon them with the purchase of PETROFAC’s non core operating assets in the same region would seem to be a good geographical optimisation fit for them that would act to promote to diversify them to some further extent away from their current heavily weighted focus on their North Sea assets base which has increasing risk of exposure to higher taxes etc due to the recent UK Labour Party victory. ENQUEST has been making significant positive free cash flow in recent times with the enhanced oil price we have had since the Ukraine war started and so they have access to plenty of funds (as demonstrated by a share buy back program they are currently doing) to undertake such a purchase from PETROFAC. Only thing that I won’t predict here is the amount of money that ENQUEST would pay…..Thoughts here anyone for what the amount could be ?

Well that is my first suggestion for the weekend. Will let others chip in with their views on this suggestion and to encourage offerings for some other suggestions for potential Rabbit Out Of The Hat RNS in the coming weeks.

DYOR

50 million pounds was the approx increase in the market cap value today. The monetary value of the shares traded today was only a small amount valued at just over a million pounds worth (equating to around 7 million shares traded, which is only about 1.5% of the overall total share count).

There is a total share count of around 525 million shares and around 10% of them are currently known to be shorted (which is the biggest % short position on the London Stock Market). The total short % is likely to be somewhat higher than 10% as this value is only capturing for the declared total of the short positions who are sat above the declaration threshold of being at least 0.5% per shorting Company. So there needs to be buying of at least 50 million shares by the shorters to close their positions. Clearly there was negligible closing of their shorts today.

Hence why there remains the big potential for a major short squeeze to happen with Petrofac stock and why many retail investors are consequentially anticipating a significant near term SP increase due to the related high volume buying demand that would be caused by all shorters closing their positions asap due to losses (reduced profits) being incurred as a result of an ongoing increasing SP (i.e. being squeezed) whilst they would be in strong competition with retail and potentially institutional investors who would also be buying the stock in high volumes to make fast/big profits.

Both the shorters and new investor buyers will need plenty of willing Sellers of the stock to buy from and if current holders can strongly resist to sell their stock cheaply, then this is what would really drive up the strength of the squeeze, like putting petrol on a 🔥 Let us see how it plays out 😎

DYOR

Here are my thoughts / observations on what todays RNS is likely telling us beyond the actual printed words…..I.e. “reading between the lines” :

1. Client has a positive outcome to their risk analysis and due diligence of Petrofac’s ability to remain as a going concern for executing the Project in order to reach their decision to proceed with Contract without having safety net provision of the PG.

2. All of the previously announced increased % (47 from 41) of the note holders have agreed for a further one month extension to the forbearance agreement. Hence supportive of Petrofac to reach positive outcome on financials and if it needs all of this 1 month extra then it’s available.

3. The timing of this news release late on a Friday afternoon to my mind was deliberate. I think they wanted to put pressure on the shorts to close and hence bolster the SP. They were looking for this big % rise in the SP from retail investors to happen in the last 1/2 hour of trading before the shorters etc would have any time to commence any reaction. They will also be expecting plenty of weekend newspaper related press coverage ahead of the Monday opening bell.

4. Following on from item 3 above and this is perhaps the most important observation… Have readers noticed the headline of this RNS compared to all previous RNS? The use of the CAPITAL letters here versus always using small case headlines previously and the very strong style of the wording “PETROFAC CURES….” To me this speaks of them now engaging with the market very strongly with positive news that will put pressure on the shorters.

In closing, I believe we will see more similar style RNS dropping at unexpected times in the coming days/weeks that has positive news, as I think that the RNS today was the start of a campaign by the Management to go on the offensive to significantly bolster the SP.

DYOR

Played a blinder issuing it 30 mins before closing on a Friday……most of the city boys will have already clocked off for the week in ignorance of this news. The shorts will need to seriously looking at closing their positions from next week when the SP has already done a 50% rise at close of play today as their starting point.

If it is Riverfort that’s taken up most of the placing shares, then as an existing long term holder there is the added benefit that they are not going to be sellers and hence the normal type of flipping overhang impact should be minimal here. Let’s see how it plays out in the coming days with TR-1(s), trading volumes, etc.

Well worth a listen, particularly at the 31.05 to 32.40 mark for upcoming Copper Road Project news expectations…..…..by the end of July, early August, we are going to get a really good story. A story like this, the context, the size of the target, the excellent high grade copper drill results we have already, the big size, we are going to have a story that is very different from today, and that should be rewarded by the market…..”

Bodes well for CHF considering that their circa 5% holding of SAG stock is the main NAV contribution to their current market cap.

DYOR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H803Qd6ODEE

Interestingly COTEC just a fortnight ago did a placing (2.75 MCAD gross = circa 1.5 MGBP nett) for “funding potential investment opportunities…..” some dots potentially to be joined?

https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/cotec-holdings-corp-announces-closing-of-non-brokered-574bb

Further pondering the placing today. I am wondering whether it’s Riverfort that has stumped up for most of this placing money to significantly increase their % holding of Mindflair ???

It was already standing at 13.9% ownership based on the Riverfort June 2024 results RNS and that could easily be brought up to just under 30% (limit before requiring takeover) if they have undertaken for it today. I don’t think they would take it above 30% for requiring takeover offer to be tabled, as that basis if true would have likely required to be notified within the Mindflair RNS today (but it is a possibility).

Nicolas Lee is a director of both Companies…..start joining dots…..might be why the BOD has not taken up any of the placing shares as it could have complicated matters for compliance, etc.

Hence very interested to see what TR-1(s) get issued in the coming days.

Btw Riverfort (ticker: RGO) currently suspended whilst an RTO is being processed, so there has not yet been any opportunity for their currently very depressed share price to benefit from the Mindflair positive re-evaluation events of the past two weeks. Can envisage their SP seeing quite a pop when they start trading again, especially if they have taken their Mindflair holding up to circa 30%, so it is well worth “keeping an eye” on that one as it will likely be joined at the hip with Mindflair for future SP movements.

DYOR

I guess with the second RNS today we see the likely reason for the Ackers sell-off……Let’s wait and see for the next TR-1 to see if he has taken some of the placing shares to re-build his stake at the discounted price, if he is true to what he spouts on about in his recent X postings.

As for the placing details, I think Company has done pretty well to get it away at 1p (15% discount) in current poor market financing conditions, which is double the SP of this stock prior to when the Landvault news was issued on 9th July (just look at APTA today with circa 60% discount placing for same day comparison although it’s in a different market sector (medical)). However I am quite surprised the BOD here has not participated in this placing. Surely they can see the value down at this price…..

Going by his recent Twitter posts, he talks positively about AI and unloved small cap stocks……whilst at the same time he is selling off his holding in #MFAI which seems to offer him the best of both these worlds….strange fella 😜

https://x.com/sportschris

Noticed some news yesterday regarding potential BHP/Lundin JV takeover of FILO. Reinforces that there’s lots of Copper focus related M&A activity likely to be seen in the short to medium term pipeline.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bhp-lundin-make-joint-bid-filo-corp-sources-say-2024-07-12/

Many thanks for your reply Baygot. I had wrongly assumed from their earlier March 2024 RNS wording that they had disposed of their entire investment portfolio. So it’s really good news now having just read through myself the June 2024 RNS that you referenced for the 2023 final results that they only partially sold their investment portfolio and importantly retained their holding in Mindflair.

According to the RNS they hold 13.9% which is a substantial amount if it plays out as hoped for Mindflair with their investments in AI related key assets.

Would be good for RGO to issue an RNS to reinforce the good news coming this week from Mindflair in relation to the RGO level of investment. Perhaps they will do so later this week.

Nearology news in Namibia from reconafrica:

https://ceo.ca/@newswire/reconafrica-announces-the-spud-of-the-naingopo-exploration

Big news today from Mindflair (formerly Pires) for which Riverfort had a large holding until their recent business strategy change with the consequent portfolio sell off.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/infinite-reality-agrees-to-acquire-landvault-6t679rzmz1d4rsg.html

Those wondering why they did not wait until 7am tomorrow morning for the RNS to get more robust stock market awareness…….

The news was press released in the states (Boston) this morning local time (see below), which is likely why the early stock buying kicked in here a few hours ahead of the RNS release. Mindflair management look to have been caught napping and then had to act quickly to get the RNS prepared/issued asap today to avoid getting a slapped wrist from the regulator.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/infinite-reality-closes-350-million-investment-acquires-landvault-in-450-million-deal-valuation-soars-to-5-1-billion-1033539387

Anyway, the market will now be digesting the RNS contents before the 8am opening bell tomorrow and hopefully there will be an interview with management broadcast to further publicise this significant news.

The AI related ventures that Mindflair are invested is the hottest sector of the stock market these days and we could see many multiples of the current SP in the coming months based on likely rapid growth in the values of many of their assets.

This article was posted today on the www.ceo.ca board and outlines a robust investment case for Sterling Metals (SAG).

https://aheadoftheherd.com/cashed-up-sterling-metals-focused-on-ontarios-copper-road-richard-mills/

In my opinion CHF should resist any temptation to start spending exploration money in Cyprus again in the near term and instead just simply sit back with their very low administrative cash burn and just watch the SAG aggressive exploration plans play out in 2024/2025 and ride their coat tails for envisaged positive findings to beneficially impact upon the SP of both companies.

Via the group eleven publication as attached below:

https://www.groupelevenresources.com/news/news/2024/index.php?content_id=169

Notice from the map how the vast majority of the VC (volcanic centre) region that is of particular interest to the exploration team as outlined in this news release is located within the G11/Arkle JV tenement rather than within the 100% G11 owned adjacent tenement.

Looks like G11 have got really interested in the Stonepark asset again after it has been on their back burner for the past few years. Wonder if Glencore are lurking in the background pulling some strategy strings here 🤔

👀 RNS needs to drop shortly or todays AGM (starts at 10am) is going to be a nothing burger and yesterday’s buy-in traders hoping for some news today will likely be bailing out.

Am I the only one on here who prefers a delay to the strategic outcome until the macro environment for Lithium is hopefully much more favourable than is the current situation.

Surely it’s much better to await for a great commercial deal for the Lithium asset likely in a few years time than to enter into a crap deal now being caused by the depressed Lithium price, etc.

Our lithium ain’t going anywhere in the meantime…..