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US unemployment data put the kibosh on early rate cuts, at least across the pond - Europe and rest of world may help to compensate somewhat.

More bouncing along the bottom for a while yet..

Glad to hear it Matt..

“I could just step aside tomorrow and be on a huge boat, wherever the sun is shining.” Has he got a huge boat? “No,” he says, laughing coyly. “I’ve got a few things, but nothing that would take me away from here yet.”

BOL !

Activist investors have suggested that he sell off the nutrition arm of the business. He is dismissive of the suggestion from the small group of investors. “My dogs have got more shares and you’ve met them.”

Market prices

If we take a look at the target market for potatoes we can see prices close to all time highs, this is repeated across Europe where Plant healthcare currently have active registrations in many of the largest producing member countries.

RPI: Ave Price - Potatoes, old white, per kg

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/vkyy/mm23

UK potato prices at record highs

https://www.mintecglobal.com/mintec-customer-blog/uk-potato-prices-at-record-highs

LIMITED AVAILABILITY BOOSTS POTATO PRICES SKY HIGH

BY POTATO BUSINESS 5TH JUNE 2024

https://www.potatobusiness.com/market/limited-availability-boosts-potato-prices-sky-high/

This is something that I have tried (unsuccessfully) to explain, in my view its highly unlikely there are any net short positions but 'short tracker' is far more persuasive.

Even if there were any real short positions, they are in the minority and negligible in the scheme of things.

“Shorting any UK mid-cap is insane, literally insane,” said one hedge fund executive who specialises in shorting stocks.

“The numbers [valuations] are just so low in the vast majority of cases that a $2bn UK company is peanuts for any mid-sized American company. Your sell case has to be unbelievably compelling and feature the stock going down at least 50 per cent” or there is a risk you lose 50 per cent if the stock gets bid for, the person added.

https://www.ft.com/content/e4d32fb6-4f42-41bc-adf1-9a10edec4928

“Shorting any UK mid-cap is insane, literally insane,” said one hedge fund executive who specialises in shorting stocks.

“The numbers [valuations] are just so low in the vast majority of cases that a $2bn UK company is peanuts for any mid-sized American company. Your sell case has to be unbelievably compelling and feature the stock going down at least 50 per cent” or there is a risk you lose 50 per cent if the stock gets bid for, the person added.

https://www.ft.com/content/e4d32fb6-4f42-41bc-adf1-9a10edec4928

Update on Agrii trials

Mancozeb: As one door prepares to close…

https://www.cpm-magazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2024/02/MancozebFeb24.pdf

Nick says of the active substances considered in Agrii trials as a replacement for mancozeb against late blight, two have shown value. He advises that potassium phosphonates has shown good levels of control but is currently only available as a co-form with ametoctradin and is limited to three applications per crop.

“We’ve looked at two potassium phosphonates-containing products over several seasons. Only one has delivered the high-level protection expected and isn’t currently authorised for use, but we’re prepared to submit an application for emergency authorisation if other avenues fail,” he says.

Health promoting products

The other product to have shown promise is Innocul8, a foliar fertiliser containing PREtec technology –– a form of peptides derived from naturally occurring proteins that elicits a response against crop threats. Nick explains that trial data supports its place in a programme, but as a plant health promoter, it can’t be considered as a replacement for mancozeb.

“Biological crop protection products and better nutrition will have a greater role to play in helping to reduce the damage caused by disease, but while these may serve to reduce the amount of fungicides required, they’re not a replacement. Innocul8 is one example of how these products can be useful but they have to be seen as part of a wider IPM strategy which considers variety choice and better plant health,” he says.

Split into three parts - Background - Agrii trials - Market prices

The following relates to some of the changes happening with conventional fungicides being withdrawn, one in particular is quite interesting and could have strong potential for the biostimulants industry.

Its worth pointing out that although Plant Healthcare has a replacement it is only a partial, i.e. cannot be considered a direct substitute rather in conjunction with, that said due to the current widespread use of Mancozeb even as a co-product it could represent meaningful revenue.

Background

Agrii (Plant health care partner) have been aware of the impending withdrawal of Mancozeb for sometime with trials starting several years ago to find suitable alternatives.

05.11.21

Potato specialist discusses the crop health and yield benefits of using a bio-stimulant containing the protein, Harpin αβ.

https://www.agrii.co.uk/news-and-media/news/trust-the-science-with-bio-stimulants/

These trials have now evolved into a more tailored approach aimed at the forthcoming discontinuation of Mancozeb.

Mancozeb withdrawal timeline confirmed

13 May 2024

Following the conclusion of the World Trade Organization’s consultation process, the withdrawal timelines for mancozeb have been confirmed.

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has extended the expiry date for the active substance by one month to 31 May 2024 to account for delays in the WTO process.'

https://www.cpm-magazine.co.uk/news/mancozeb-withdrawal-timeline-confirmed/

For this years growing season too:

Jeff Tweedy, CEO of Plant Health Care, said: ‟Wilbur-Ellis has been successfully promoting Employ since 2019 and I am pleased that following this new approval, Employ will be available to additional growers in California to support their production goals across an expanded range of new crops in this high value market.

"The expanded Employ California label supports the Company's vision to be a leading global provider of alternatives to conventional synthetic agrochemicals. We are excited to continue working with Wilbur-Ellis to bring the benefits of Employ to a wide range of growers in California for the 2024 season."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PHC/expanded-new-california-label-for-employ174-69c70wsr18xf8c0.html

Guess who..2500..

PHC are partnered with six of the global ag tech companies, this must surely give them greater exposure to a next step equity position similar to say Sipcam-Oxon with Eden.

This in my view would be considered less of a dilution due to the overall benefits, that's of course if someone doesn't go the whole hog and buy the farm..

Cavendish not pulling any punches this morning, have they been reading this forum lol

'With such a profitable and proven biological agribiotech solution, we see Plant Health Care as a high-tech AIM-listed company that is at risk of being taken out before investors can enjoy the returns that are now visible after decades of development and investment.'

Its proper text book stuff this, every time there's positive news (today) prop traders try to squash sentiment by pushing it down, Hang Seng currently up by 2.3%

Hutchmed was down 3% at one point, same mo' as results and following updates..

Tom Killeen interview with Royal Mail 'investing in automation hubs' -

Cool backdrop to the video, robots whizzing back and forth..

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fulfil-by-thg_fulfilbythg-fulfilmentinfocus-royalmail-activity-7202284346555150337-kNEH/

Those read very well indeed, outlook is remarkable given where the market was 6 months ago.

Glad to see receivables back to normal, this was a worry due to large distributor payments.

Cash balance :

'At 31st December 2023, cash was $2.1m, increasing to $2.3m at 3rd May 2024'

H1 traditionally has a higher cash usage, pleasing to see they have maintained cash levels through this period.

The underlying business feels much more solid now with multiple revenue streams, not quite there yet but certainly on the way.

For sure, the product range is not dissimilar to Iceland so could in theory be an extension to existing partnership, scale would be only concern given how big Nestle is.

Either way, it shows Myprotein is in the sweet spot for future trends, can only benefit Iceland and MP in general.

I should really start a new thread for Nestle but for the moment this will do - Nestle already a committed partner for THG nutrition, would be nice if this was an expansion.

--------

Nestlé Introduces Vital Pursuit Brand to Support GLP-1 Users, Consumers Focused on Weight Management

Vital Pursuit will help meet this need through a variety of frozen formats such as bowls with whole grains or protein pasta, sandwich melts, and pizzas, all for a suggested retail price of $4.99 and under (prices may vary by retailer). The products are portion-aligned and include essential nutrients like protein, vitamin A, potassium, calcium or iron. Vital Pursuit also includes gluten-free options, and several air-fryer ready items for added convenience.

https://www.nestleusa.com/media/pressreleases/vital-pursuit-glp-1-weight-management

The new product is formulated with a peptide derived from Harpin protein – PDPH. It is registered to control one of the biggest threats to Brazilian soybean crops – the nematode Pratylenchus brachyurus in soybeans. According to the manufacturer, with this technology, the plant can selectively respond only to harmful microorganisms that impede its development.

https://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---50312.htm

When the share options were granted in March the s/p was circ 60p, that would equate to £18.3m vesting over three years or £6.1m per annum, that's a long way from £30m per annum.

Working out the actual cost to the company is a complex process, including how current, how to close to being 'in the money' and how many have lapsed.

Its highly likely that some of the options issued in earlier years vesting in 2023/4 have now expired without being exercised, this is only a guess based on where were are performance wise, to do this accurately a reconciliation of the AR would be needed.

THG need to remain competitive in recruiting the right people, its that sort of demanding high profile business.

All management can do is keep growing and make the business better, the share price will take care of itself over the long term. I view these moments with optimism rather than disappointment, much rather pay 75p than £5.75p .

..but there again, I'm a cheapskate : )