Member Info for 1pencil

Agree, not out of the woods yet but some encouraging signs.

My main focus has always been cash burn rather than the business potential, its down to $.2.8m for 2023, still too high but a decent improvement given destocking evolved throughout 2023.

Overall better than expected, still need those two registrations to come in for 2025 or if California is approved next few weeks could be included in 2024.

Main take away is they have strong and improving business, with a little help from a strategic partner it could be a highly profitable company.

This is an absolute nugget for anyone on the acquisitions trail, existing partner or not imo.

US ag companies has a good day yesterday, FMC finished the day up 10%.

Text book stuff..

'Approaching round numbers $20, always a favourite for prop traders as investors breath a sigh of relief crossing said threshold, only for the rug to be unceremoniously pulled from under ..'

Still experiencing de-stocking issues but holding guidance for 2024 with modest increase.

Market likes it, currently up 7.5%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fmc-corporation-delivers-first-quarter-203000016.html

Q1 Nutrition revenue growth was held back by a c.16% devaluation of the Japanese Yen YoY (15% of THG Nutrition revenues), as well as expected availability gaps as the product range transitions to the new branding.

·

Continued devaluation risk with the Japanese Yen is being addressed with the launch of local manufacturing in H2, as well as through licensing agreements, where local partners recognise full revenue value and THG receives a percentage as a royalty.

·

Local manufacturing in India successfully launched in Q1, allowing products to be more quickly tailored to the needs of the local market, while reducing lengthy supply chains in the movement of goods from the UK to India. We expect India to become a key market for Nutrition over the next three years.

Part of the decline was attributed to currency movements, the actual fall was -5.8% due to branding change over and some product shortages.

'Do you not think that a 9% fall in THG Nutrition Revenue is a large fall and concerning?'

No worries, last year we had the consultation process brought about by a perceived undervaluation of PHC, at the time share price was around 10/11p mark.

It will be interesting to hear commentary on this now we are at a third of that, plus AMVAC/additional registrations.

FTSE broken out of trading range, personally wouldn't be selling anything let alone going short.

Pull up five year chart

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTSE/

Plant Healthcare have few direct UK peers but one cannot help but notice the striking difference in valuation between Eden and PHC.

Roughly speaking it has just over a quarter of PHC's annual revenue for y/e 2023 but market cap is almost double.

Cash position, loss reported is better overall but even so, still quite a gap.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EDEN/preliminary-results-for-the-year-ended-31-dec-2023/16456037

PHC should also have results fairly soon, outlook is key here together with cost savings.

Wasn't it 'symbiotic' , THG provide fulfilment and ecom hosting in return for ad space, something like that.

Market has gone back into rate cut mode again:

'U.S. stocks rose Monday, with Wall Street looking to build on the previous session’s strong gains, after new jobs data revived hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. '

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/05/stock-futures-inch-higher-sunday-after-weaker-than-expected-jobs-report-left-investors-looking-up-live-updates.html

Non farm payroll Friday, that was a doozy, no one expected such a drop given feds recent comments.

Could be the catalyst across the pond for rate cuts, who knows but UK/EU are very much on track to meet their targets.

BONDS

10-year Treasury yield dives below 4.5% as unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/us-treasury-yields-ahead-of-april-jobs-report.html

Does CNBC read this forum [LOL]

Fed and ECB divergence on rate cuts

The prospect of the European Central Bank diverging from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts is likely to be “particularly negative” for the 20-nation euro zone, according to one economist.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/european-central-bank-rate-cut-would-be-a-mistake-economist-says.html

Global hedge funds chase Hong Kong stocks rally, UBS says

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Global hedge funds that use an equities long-short strategy are growing increasingly bullish on China, evidenced by the heavy pick-up in their purchases of Hong Kong-listed shares, UBS Group said in a note.

Hong Kong's stock markets, which closely mirror China's struggling performance, have recovered since March as Beijing rolled out economic support measures. The Hang Seng Index rose more than 7% in April, marking its best monthly gain since January 2023 and outperforming most major markets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-hedge-funds-chase-hong-024837696.html

Not sure if Corteva breaks out the biologicals reporting as this maybe helpful, overall the market has responded positively touching year high today.

'On Crop Protection, as anticipated, we faced headwinds as the industry continues to work through residual inventory imbalances in key regions and farmers are shifting to just-in-time purchasing.

We are expecting growth in the second half of 2024 driven by our differentiated portfolio, leading biologicals products and cost actions.'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corteva-reports-first-quarter-2024-211000725.html

Some weeks ago I made a comment on divergence between UK and US markets, Dow at the time was nudging 40k, FTSE at 8k - roll forward a few weeks and that dynamic has changed slightly with a gap of around 2000 point emerging.

If Europe and UK start dropping rates we could see an unwinding the dominant position held by US markets, in addition FTSE trackers may have a greater impact given the bullish phase currently enjoyed by UK markets.

Folks wonder who is doing the selling, my own view its the numerous tracker type index funds which base their economic model around interest rates and consumer spending.

I've watched the below fund reduce almost daily on their 'consumer' category from 12.46% to 12.03%, it doesn't sound like much but this fund value sits at around $100b, also multiple this by a factor of 20 or so for the other funds.

https://www.ishares.com/uk/professional/en/products/244049/ishares-core-msci-eafe-etf

We may however see the balance change even with US rates staying high for longer, a reduction in EU/UK rates should have some impact along with the much delayed FTSE listing.

Whilst sticky inflation remains this could signal the top, also set against UK/EU rates likely to drop within next couple of months.

If there is little to no more bad news due out of the Fed, trackers, index funds may adjust their economic model accordingly.

Powell pretty much rules out a hike and stocks like it

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-may-fed-rate-decision.html

Pressure is now firmly in favour of bio control market.

IBMA And Copa-Cogeca call on EC to speed up the procedures for placing bio-products on the market

https://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---50026.htm

Europe has to set aside the pesticides row and turn toward sustainable agricultural solutions

https://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---50003.htm

Nice job Jatw

Alex makes some valid points, I find it hard to fault Matts post having watched the whole Dark Trace episode unfold.

Its also drawn a response from Neil Shah, Head of Tech, Primary Markets, London Stock Exchange which again, can only be a good thing, the more eyeballs on this subject the more chance of change.

One area that I do disagree on is the percentage of shorts or the role they play in the share price decline.

Posters venting is well.. just that, it stops when markets are closed because there is a break from the mental stress of a red share price.

The upside to all of this is yet more pressure on current actions, one would hope the FCA are not that far off publishing final recommendations.