Member Info for 1pencil

A distant memory, wonderful times ..

Date of purchase:

8 March 2024

Aggregate number of Ordinary Shares purchased:

124,749

Lowest price paid per Ordinary Share (GBP):

0.3850

Highest price paid per Ordinary Share (GBP):

0.3998

Volume weighted average price paid per Ordinary Share (GBP):

0.3961

Whey prices continue to fall,

Keep an eye on whey prices which historically have hit nutrition margins, currently down by 20% this quarter, around $160 off 2023 lows..

Friday 29 Mar 2024

675 US $ per ton

Friday 8 Dec 2023

875 US $ per ton

https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=whey

Few more thoughts on this topic;

Whilst its not possible to predict what will happen post merger, we can look at companies with FTSE entries of similar value.

THG sits between 264 and 265 on the FTSE Index with no designation due to Standard listing, both of the companies eitherside are trusts so I have picked the next two up, John Wood Group and J D Weatherspoons.

FTSE Index https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

These two companies have roughly 20% of their share register consisting of regular UK funds above 3%, mostly recognisable, that's a big contrast to THG's current position (0%).

JOHN WOOD GROUP PLC

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/JOHN-WOOD-GROUP-PLC-4003879/company/

J D WETHERSPOON PLC

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/J-D-WETHERSPOON-PLC-9590143/company/

S4's may offer a clue following their sudden turnaround.

Its worth reading the paragraph from the link below titled 'Encouraging innovation and bolstering competitiveness'

This is the first time I have seen the FCA acknowledge head on all of the issues UK listed companies face, one point in particular often quoted in the media;

- The latest ONS data shows that only 4% of UK quoted issuers are held by UK pension schemes and insurers.

This gives rise to some optimism and scope for improvement, my concern has always been a dismissal or failure to recognise these shortcomings.

Its worth reading the paragraph from the link below titled 'Encouraging innovation and bolstering competitiveness'

This is the first time I have seen the FCA acknowledge head on all of the issues UK listed companies face, one point in particular often quoted in the media;

- The latest ONS data shows that only 4% of UK quoted issuers are held by UK pension schemes and insurers.

This gives rise to some optimism and scope for improvement, my concern has always been a dismissal or failure to recognise these shortcomings.

Some encouraging news on the Premium/Standard listing reforms, couple of updates by the FCA this year which is definitely a step change for these guys.

Consultation closed on 22nd March 24, that's it, we now await final publication with implementation shortly afterwards this summer.

Realistically it could be from May onwards, given the exodus of companies I would expect sooner rather than later.

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/speeches/uk-listing-regime-developments-uk-listings-review-next-steps-reform

Both S4 and THG should benefit from inclusion in the main FTSE indexes, UK trackers and regular funds will be able to buy should they wish to do so.

Some encouraging news on the Premium/Standard listing reforms, couple of updates by the FCA this year which is definitely a step change for these guys.

Consultation closed on 22nd March 24, that's it, we now await final publication with implementation shortly afterwards this summer.

Realistically it could be from May onwards, given the exodus of companies I would expect sooner rather than later.

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/speeches/uk-listing-regime-developments-uk-listings-review-next-steps-reform

Both S4 and THG should benefit from inclusion in the main FTSE indexes, UK trackers and regular funds will be able to buy should they wish to do so.

I would like to see Ingenuity broaden its offering away from existing segments, complementary offerings which match their target demographic, cell phones, trainers that sort of merchandise - small, easily packed and shipped.

There are some parallels with Softbank's JV with Symbotic systems, Greenbox.

Much depends on Softbank's' current intentions, wouldn't rule them out though.

The fed despite its size still has to remain competitive with other countries on rates, especially if the rest of the world goes into easing mode.

Ages ago there was a term decoupling referring to the separation of US markets with UK, cannot remember the exact circumstances but it can and does happen.

Request to other posters, can we please not have another day telling everyone that you have green boxes, responding to mischievous posters is as bad ass the posters themselves, thank you.

Tend to agree, but if there is a wider divergence its going to make things interesting for sure, especially with leveraged deals..

Hasn't happened yet but very much looks like this will happen and quite soon too.

It could be the catalyst the UK market needs to give it a boost over US which by comparison is expensive, raising finance here for buyout would also be cheaper adding to the equation..

Fed today pulling in expectations of early cuts has spooked the market ..

Hasn't happened yet but very much looks like this will happen and quite soon too.

It could be the catalyst the UK market needs to give it a boost over US which by comparison is expensive, raising finance here for buyout would also be cheaper adding to the equation..

Fed today pulling in expectations of early cuts has spooked the market ..

Luvveryly jubbly..

At the risk of boring everyone into a deep slumber, wanted to follow-up on the powdery mildew issues clarifying which branded products do what in the PHC line up.

From my understanding Obrona, Innocul8 and Saori® in Brazil are the same product targeting amongst other things powdery mildew, from recent PHC news flow:

'Obrona™, based on the same active ingredient found in Saori® in Brazil, was launched in the US In 2023 by Wilbur-Ellis® Agribusiness.

Obrona is a unique foliar product developed to help growers control a wide range of fungal and bacterial plant pathogens within fruits, nuts, vegetables, and row crops.

Multiple years of field trials validated product efficacy to support initial launch focused on corn diseases, such as tar spot (Phyllachora maydis), Gray leaf spot (Cercospora zeae-maydis), and common rust (Puccinia sorghi), as well as powdery and downy mildew and various other diseases in grapes, as well as white mold (Sclerotinia sclerotiorum) and other diseases affecting leafy vegetables within key Western US states'

PHC are still waiting on California for approval, obviously this being a huge wine producer should bode well for Wilber Ellis partnership if approved, Wilbur Ellis already supply flowable sulfur into California which is the other key component mentioned in Agrii PDF below.

https://www.wilburellisagribusiness.com/product/sulfur-dry-flowable/

It looks as though Bloomberg are double counting Franklin and Templeton, 60m shares would put them over 10%, no TR1 to my knowledge?

Warpaint is down around 7% after a Stella run, one or two posts highlighting Ulta too.

Difference being Ulta, Warpaint are close to all time highs unlike THG.

Don't forget companies like Qube are effectively long US beauty stocks like Ulta but short UK equities, like THG.

Qube must be fed up with Ulta, been in and out like a fiddlers elbow, buying at peaks and selling at lows..

Yesterdays warning by Ulta had a knock on to other US beauty stocks, trackers may have adjusted accordingly hence this mornings drop.

Updated list of new products approved and ready for sale in 2024, appreciate OBRONA launched in 2023 but more or less missed growing season hence inclusion now.

MOSHY (PHC25279) Brazil to control foliar diseases in coffee and sugar cane

TEIKKO (PHC68949) Brazil to Control Nematodes in Soybeans

OBRONA (PHC25279) USA fungal and bacterial plant pathogens within fruits, nuts, vegetables, and row crops.

Innocul8 (PreTec) UK promoting greater yields and higher quality of potatoes, berries, peas, beans and grapes.

HARPIN Poland, included as approved late Aug 2023

Mexico (awaiting brand name) PHC68949 to Control Nematodes in Vegetable Crops

Still India with Novazymes/Harpin to come in along with OBRONA in California, Mexico has PHC25279 awaiting approval.

Let me know if I have missed anything.