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Https://kelsoplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/KELSO-Investor-Presentation-May-2023.pdf

525,987 @64.10

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Its an interesting development at an interesting juncture for PHC.

I don't think there is any secret that management want to unlock value most likely with some form of partnership buyout.

Griffiths being a potential forced seller with nearly 12% of the company could be a catalyst, for example it would take

Ospraie AG Science to a fraction under 30% over which they would be required to bid for remainder of shares.

That's one heck of a haircut Griffiths is taking but at least we know who the seller is.

At the moment he stands to lose £130m or thereabouts on WANdisco depending on final outcome, that's a lot perhaps too much even for Griffiths, lots of other sizable knocks too.

Its not really clear what managements strategy is beyond the 2025 figure, this bit:

"and we remain on track to achieve our target of $30m revenue in 2025, achieving cash breakeven and profit along that track"

In theory PHC could just tick along and hit those targets without any further dilution, other options would be a raising cash at a higher share price, possible if management can convince a strategic investor along the lines of wilbur ellis to come in as a partner.

Second option would be to sell the whole business, again price would need to be north of here somewhat given existing holders underwater plus Cenkos note.

I think the second two options are more likely than the first, having now gotten the products out there its of course time to leverage that position to the full, this would be my short list:

wilbur ellis

Origin

Ospraie AG Science

There's varying relationships to all three, but each has resources to maximise PHC's clear potential.

Its all very well driving the price down with borrowed shares, quite another to actually buy the whole shebang for an artificially low price.

It has a familiar ring to it, remember this time last year 'China uninvestable' malarkey.

ASCO conference will put the focus on the fight against cancer. These stocks are in the spotlight

PUBLISHED SUN, MAY 28 20238:20 AM EDT

Christina Cheddar Berk

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/28/asco-will-focus-on-the-cancer-fight-these-stocks-are-in-the-spotlight.html

Syngenta’s US$9.26 billion IPO seen as ‘huge feather in the cap’ to lure foreigners to China’s market, analysts say

The 65 billion yuan (US$9.26 billion) offering is expected to boost foreign fund interest in China’s onshore equities market

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3221416/syngentas-us926-billion-ipo-seen-huge-feather-cap-lure-foreigners-chinas-market-analysts-say

The numbers add up for Takeda, it would be incredible if this topic had not surfaced before in discussions, its the elephant in the room given Hutchmeds current market cap.

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US-China relations continue to thaw at meeting between trade officials in Detroit

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3222006/us-china-relations-continue-thaw-meeting-between-trade-officials-detroit

Doubt they can trade it, that would be a huge risk as its their only asset, imagine trying to explain that to shareholders also Mello this week, how would that look.

This is their progress so far that we know of:

"In January 2023, the company raised £3.0 million from a share issue at a share price of 2.0p. On 31 January 2023, Kelso announced its first investment of £2.75 million into THG plc ("THG") through the purchase of 5 million shares at 54.5p.

The background and reasons for this investment of shares in THG were set out in the announcement dated 31 January 2023. On 30 March 2023, Kelso announced a second net purchase of a beneficial interest in an additional 2.4 million shares in THG and also gave a further update as to its investment into THG.

On 21 April 2023, Kelso announced a third net purchase of a beneficial interest in an additional 0.6 million shares in THG, which takes Kelso's total beneficial interest, consisting of ordinary shares and Contracts for Difference (“CFDs"), in THG to 8.0 million shares. On 30 March 2023 Kelso announced an intention to raise up to a further £3.0 million new money at 2.5p"

Perhaps Kelso don't want others front running their orders, hence the silence - bit coincidental it was their AGM this week.

Not sure if they would have to wait for shares to be admitted on 30th before buying, if so could buy with settlement T+3 - should get them on the other side if needed.

The original lot were purchased in the 50's without all of this bid activity, plus THG now have an independent valuation for Ingenuity courtesy of Apollo, helps reaffirm their own investment case.

....................

Stevies post about airlines is an interesting, it reminded me of one of Kelso's points about food industry moving towards healthier options, myprotein has plenty of choice too including vegan options:

https://www.myprotein.ie/nutrition/healthy-food-drinks/protein-snacks.list

Airlines and such have to be super careful for food intolerance reactions. THG have control over ingredient supply chain which can help ensure no cross contamination with other foods.

Exciting times to be a shareholder..

Could be Kelso spending their latest capital injection, no word from them at all which may lend support to this theory.

Focus on late stage pipeline with recent Takeda acquisition;

“With our plan to acquire announced in December, we are excited to have promptly added TAK-279, a highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor with truly transformative potential for patients in multiple diseases, to our late-stage pipeline,” said Ramona Sequeira, president, global portfolio division, at Takeda. “This program closely aligns with our strategy and expertise in immune-mediated diseases, and we look forward to sharing more details of our development plans soon.”

Under the terms of the agreement and following the closing of the transaction, Takeda will pay Nimbus approximately 4 billion USD upfront, after adjusting items including closing indebtedness and closing account payable of Lakshmi. Takeda will also make two milestone payments to Nimbus of 1 billion USD each upon achieving annual net sales of 4 billion USD and 5 billion USD of products developed from the TAK-279 program.

https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2023/takeda-completes-acquisition-of-nimbus-therapeutics-tyk2-program-subsidiary/

You have to read between the lines with Oke posts, when he says

"For Ref I am long THG"

..what he actually means is he sold out on no bid and bought into BOO ..lol

Amones, yup, my post was poorly written, it should have referenced the enterprise value of Takeda deal with Hutchmed.

Good to see such an early result from the partnership, also underlines the rationale (in my view) for a merger , would anyone be surprised?

osaka, japan, cambridge, massachusetts, hong kong, shanghai &, florham park, new jersey, may 25, 2023 – takeda (tse:4502/nyse:tak) and hutchmed (china) limited (nasdaq/aim:hcm, hkex:13) (hutchmed) today announced that the u.s. food and drug administration (fda) has granted priority review of the new drug application (nda) for fru*****inib, a highly selective and potent inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors (vegfr) -1, -2 and -3 for the treatment of adult patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer (crc). if approved, fru*****inib will be the first and only highly selective inhibitor of all three vegf receptors approved in the u.s. for previously treated metastatic crc.1,2 the prescription drug user fee act (pdufa) goal date assigned by the fda for this nda is november 30, 2023.

https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/press-releases/takeda-and-hutchmed-announce-new-drug-application-for-fru*****inib-for-treatment-of-previously-treated-metastatic-colorectal-cancer-granted-priority-review/

I remember your posts well over the years going way back, think you met management one year in Hong Kong, that was an age ago.

Not sure I have any useful comments to make, is your average a lot higher than where we are now?

Valuation wise, Hutchmeds market cap is about the same as Takeda enterprise value plus cash on the books - but its not the only under valued stock, same can be said for my other two holdings but THG is waaayyyyy off the scale with so many peer group comparables, similar conversations there too..

During the offer period posts averaged 300-400, some days even higher, lot of that hot money has now left with posting levels settling under 100

Short Tracker, most have gone with no 10% squeeze as widely forecast, not even a hug as they left - total red herring

On a more positive note, great news flow last few days especially Iceland vending deal, v high profile and a unique offering.

Good point davey, some of the daily reported short volume is bound to include general market making, many prop traders also use this model with other instruments such as swaps.

The accumulated short volume is arguably a better indicator of what is outstanding/has to be bought back, although again fair bit of guess work involved.

So much of the news headlines are dominated by the two sides posturing, very hard to know what is going on but the underlying trend still looks positive.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/22/wall-street-bullish-on-recovery-of-chinas-tech-alibaba-tencent-baidu.html

Click on the 'short sell' tab, quite amazing really..

https://hk.warrants.com/en/stock/chart/code/0013