Increased Gas Price2 Apr 2011 21:39
1 April 2011
The National Energy Regulating Commission (NERC) increased the gas price for industrial and public sector consumers by 12% to UAH 2,553 ($320)/tcm).
Dragon Capital view: The news is positive for the state oil and gas monopoly Naftogaz Ukrainy in view of the growing price of imported Russian gas. The latest gas price hike is based on an average imported gas price of $296/tcm. Yet we expect Russian gas to be priced at this level already in 2Q11 and grow much more expensive in 2H11, to $343/tcm on average in 3Q11 and $380/tcm in 4Q11.
The news is also positive for independent gas producers such as JKX Oil and Gas, Regal Petroleum, and Cadogan Petroleum, whose selling prices for gas are capped by the NERC and are indirectly linked to Naftogaz’s price. Our model for JKX foresees a $300/tcm gas price — in line with the announced increase.
At the same time, the NERC’s price hike is mostly negative for chemical producers such as Stirol, for which gas is the largest input cost. The impact on machine building and metal and mining companies will mostly be marginal.
http://ukrainian-energy.com/news/gas/130/