GKN PLC Share News (GKN)

* European stocks slightly up * Wall Street fades after a positive open * Utilities rally after RWE, E.ON plan Innogy break-up March 12 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity marketsbrought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him onMessenger to share your thoughts on market moves: danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ETF FLOWS: ANYWHERE BUT THE U.S.! (1552 GMT) ETF investors shunned U.S. equities in February, a month which saw significant drawdowns onthe S&P 500 as volatility spiked. While February was a less impressive month than January for flows into ETFs worldwide,inflows were still nearly double December's figure, Blackrock reports - showing investors werehappy to 'buy the dip' after market turmoil. U.S. large-caps were the worst hit with outflows of $14.3 billion over the month. Overallredemptions for U.S. equities reached $23.3 billion, after cumulative inflows of $122.5 billionover the previous four months. While U.S. stocks floundered, inflows to the rest of the world ground higher. "Tailwindsinclude valuations that are less stretched than for U.S. equities, improving global economicgrowth and a weaker U.S. dollar," Blackrock strategists write. Globally Japanese equities ruled the roost, drawing in $7.1 billion. In Europe, investorsturned to European equities which remained the most popular equity exposure, drawing in $3.4billion. The preference for non-U.S. equities was stark: some 85 percent of all equity ETP inflowsyear-to-date have come from non-U.S. exposures - the highest percentage since 2009. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues as protectionist measures get fleshedout. (Helen Reid) ***** NOTHING TO FEAR BUT VIX ITSELF (1535 GMT) The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has just published an in-depth article lookingat how exchange-traded volatility products like the now infamous VelocityShares Inverse VixShort-Term ETN exacerbated the market fall of February 5. While a jump in the VIX, what some call the market's "fear gauge", is to be expectedduring a stock market fall, something wasn't quite right this time, the BIS article found. "The increase in the VIX on that day significantly exceeded what would be expected based onthe historical relationship," the authors wrote, noting "it was the largest daily increase inthe VIX since the 1987 stock market crash". Here's one paragraph that's worth reading: How did the tension on the VIX contaminate the stock market? Read on: Two key takeaways here: * "Market developments on 5 February were another illustration of how synthetic structurescan create and amplify market jumps, even if the core players themselves are relatively small" * "Given the historical tendency of volatility increases to be rather sharp, such strategiescan amount to 'collecting pennies in front of a steamroller'" You can find the article here: http://bit.ly/2DiZcxL and a surprise soundbite here:http://bit.ly/2GkGglE. (Julien Ponthus, Saikat Chatterjee and Helen Reid) **** DARK POOL CAPS: WHO'S WINNING AND LOSING? (1457 GMT) Today's the day dark pool caps have come into force: some 755 instruments are subject toESMA's Double Volume Cap from today to Sep 12 2018. That's less than 5 percent of the totalinstruments traded in the European market, but nonetheless it could have a significant impact onmarket structure. UK stocks are disproportionately affected: 86 of the FTSE 100 are capped, and 173 stocks ofthe FTSE 250 index. That compares to just one stock from the DAX 30, and six of France's CAC 40.This divergence is down to the greater use of dark pools in the UK than on the continent,Liquidnet reckons. Anticipation of this new regime has already been changing traders' preferences for the pastyear, with many opting to channel orders into large blocks - as 'large in scale' orders areexempt from the dark pool caps. The proportion of dark trading executed as large blocks has risen from 12 percent at thestart of January last year, to 23.4 percent at last count on Friday, according to Fidessa (seechart below). Apart from dark block trading venues, the big winners from the change have been venuesoffering periodic auctions. "There's been a noticeable spike in periodic auction activity," saysRebecca Healey, head of EMEA market structure and strategy at Liquidnet. Toby Bayliss, head of electronic trading at Bernstein, says Cboe's periodic auction platformhas doubled its market share since Friday. But all in all volumes have been thinner today, reminiscent of the first days of MiFID II inJanuary, Healey adds. "We're entering a different environment and people have no historical knowledge of how theDVC will work, so unsurprisingly people are stepping their toes in gingerly," she says. Systematic internalisers (SI), the bank-run trading venues which some expect to gaintraction, have multiplied in preparation for the change, but both Healey and Bayliss say theyhadn't yet seen a spike in SI activity yet. There's been some trader speculation today that unexpectedly large moves in UK small-capstocks on little news could be a consequence of the dark pool caps. But most say the rulesshouldn't impact share prices and these observations are at best guesswork, at worst "rubbish". (Helen Reid) ***** THE INNOGY CARVE-UP: JUST AN APPETIZER? (1410 GMT) Plans to carve up Innogy between its parent RWE and rival German utilityE.ON come at a timely moment for investors who had recently bet on an unloved sectorin a bid to rotate some of their portfolio from cyclicals to defensives. European utilities are the best-performing sector today with a 1.4 percent rise asthe German utilities' big bang lifts shares through the industry. "A great way to play any rotation is by selling Autos v buying (clean) Utilities, leastthose positively geared to rising carbon prices," Northern Trust Capital Markets, was advisinglast week, before the German utilities overhaul was unveiled. "We were not on RWE, sadly, but the deal should support the sector call more broadly", thebroker says today, noting that "there could be plenty more on offer". Northern Trust Capital Markets had singled out "clean energy producers, like Fortum , Verbund and EDF which should benefit from the surging price ofcarbon permits". Another deal which is expected in Germany (even more likely so after the Innogy carve-up,Norther Trust reckons), is Finland's Fortum buying the shares it does not already own in E.ON's former power plant and trading unit Uniper. "To some, Uniper may be seen as a cheaper way into Fortum," the broker adds. Below a chart showing how utilities have recently outperformed autos afterthe February correction. (Julien Ponthus) ***** VEXED BY VOL (1307 GMT) An analysis by JPMorgan strategists of February hedge fund data has shown that, perhapssurprisingly, both short volatility and long volatility hedge funds performed poorly inFebruary. JPM say this suggests that short vol funds were underprepared or not adequately protectedfor a reversal of the low vol trend, while long vol funds were not leveraged enough to takeadvantage of the spike in volatility. Another observation is that AI funds along with CTAs (commodity trading advisers, or managedfutures) likely played a big role in the correction. Many CTAs generate returns from currencies,interest rates and equities futures. "While AI hedge funds had over the previous seven years posted significantly betterperformance relative to CTAs or Risk Parity funds both in terms of absolute or risk adjustedreturns, their unprecedented slump in February raises several questions," say JPM's strategistsin a note. They flag that correlations between CTAs and risk parity funds with AI funds appear to haverisen over the past years. (Kit Rees) ***** GOLDILOCKS, SHEHERAZADE AND CANDIDE: A FAIRY-TALE MONDAY (1148 GMT) Goldilocks is back! At least as a popular buzzword in our inboxes this morning. The fairytale analogy of a not too hot, not too cold pace of inflation-free economic growth is beingwidely used to describe the mood markets got into after Friday's U.S. jobs report. "U.S. markets have sprinted higher in the wake of an NFP report that may be justifiablydescribed as a ‘Goldilocks’ update," writes IG's Chris Beauchamp. "As far as U.S. investors appear to be concerned the fear and loathing at the beginning ofFebruary almost appears a distant memory," says CMC's Michael Hewson, noting a "Goldilocks U.S.jobs report". "Market sentiment was lifted on Friday on the back of a ‘Goldilocks’ U.S. February labourreport," is also Rabobank's analysis. Another kind of fairy tale, this time from 'One Thousand and One Nights', was used by WallStreet’s Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach on Friday but in a less optimistic tone: French asset manager Hervé Goulletquer (LBPAM) chose Voltaire's Candide and the "All is forthe best in the best of all possible worlds" quote to reflect on whether we are back in lastyear's favourable macro environment. "Should one believe in a 'best of all possible worlds' story?", he asks in his daily note. While markets this morning still seem to be in fairy-tale mood, a reality-check is scheduledfor tomorrow. "Core CPI on Tuesday is the next major macro test for markets," warns DNB. In the meantime: (Julien Ponthus) ***** GLOBAL CORPORATES: A PICTURE OF HEALTH (1113 GMT) Corporate confidence among the world's largest companies for the coming year has reached afive-year high, Fidelity reports from a survey of its 143 investment analysts, based on companymeetings. While this climate of high global debt and market confidence (bar last month) would usuallylead to higher leverage and rising default expectations, it hasn't thus far, Fidelity's head ofresearch Marty Dropkin says. "On the contrary, our survey points to well-funded balance sheets across sectors; stablefinancing needs, funding costs, and default rates; and slightly falling leverage over the next12 months - a reflection of cautious capital use despite years of economic growth.” Moody's analysis chimes with this. The ratings agency expects the speculative-grade defaultrate to fall globally in the next 12 months (to 1.0 percent from 2.8 percent in Europe) althoughthe squeezed retail and media sectors are still likely to face trouble. Among last month's defaulters were four companies from the retail sector. But Sharon Ou, Moody's senior credit officer, says: "We believe that after a particularlydifficult year in 2017, with 13 defaults, the retail sector is now approaching a tipping pointand the number of defaults among retailers will drop significantly this year." In Europe, the media sector will suffer the most defaults in 2018, Moody's predicts,followed by retail, and cargo transportation. (Helen Reid) ***** SPOT THE EXTREMES IN EUROPEAN EQUITIES (1056 GMT) Yep, there's still a few lurking. Two years on and UBS strategists have reviewed four charts showing "crisis-born" extremesfor European equities. While we are seeing a turning point in European earnings and the yield gap between theGerman bund and European banks is normalising, UBS' other two charts suggest that the hard workisn't over yet. For instance, this is the first time since 1973 that Europe has lagged the U.S. coming outof a recovery rally (see chart below), thanks to tech's larger weighting in the U.S. and recentU.S. stimulus measures. Likewise UBS highlights that the profit gap between Europe and the U.S. is on course for anew crisis high of 68 percent, as a cocktail of tax cuts, increased fiscal spending and weakerdollar are expected to boost U.S. company profits. (Kit Rees) ***** TARIFF TIT-FOR-TAT: HOW FAR WILL IT GO? (1005 GMT) We're arguably "back to square one" on globalisation, Bank of America Merrill-Lynchstrategists say, with trade tariffs from the U.S. and the outcome of the Italian electionsthrowing doubt over the progress made in 2017. The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium imports will have a very small near-term impact, butvery uncertain ultimate endgame, BAML says, with retaliation likely. Europe could target a range of U.S. exports including orange juice, cranberries, peanutbutter, tobacco, as well as industrial products. "If the tariff tit-for-tat ends here, as with the initial tariffs, the macroeconomic impactis likely to be quite small," BAML writes. Noting, however, Trump's claim it would counter these tariffs with restrictions on autos,they add: "This would be the kind of escalation that could seriously damage businessconfidence." Ironic, then, that the pick-up in global growth over the past two years is in part down to arevival in trade. (Helen Reid) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: UTILITIES RALLY (0814 GMT) Stocks across Europe have opened strongly, with financials giving the biggest boost to theSTOXX 600 as appetite for riskier parts of the market returns. Utilities are the top-gaining stocks across country benchmarks as news of RWE andE.ON's break-up of Innogy boosts speculation of deal-making. Suez, EDP, Veolia, EDF, and Italgas are all climbing on the news. Innogy itselfjumped 15 percent. (Helen Reid) ***** WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE EUROPE OPENS (0745 GMT) European shares are expected to open higher with futures on main country benchmarks up0.4-1.1 percent following gains in Asia on the back of Friday's U.S. jobs report. British engineer GKN will be in focus after it agreed a $6 bln tie-up with Dana tohelp fend off Melrose, which in response submitted an increased and final cash and paper offerfor GKN. Auto stocks could underperform after US President Donald Trump tweeted that if theEU retaliates against steel tariffs by placing higher tariffs on American goods, the US would"tax cars etc. FAIR!" link here: https://goo.gl/oJ2PBs Also in the spotlight will be German utilities after RWE and rival E.ON announced plans to break up Innogy. E.On is seen up 6 percent in premarkettrade. We'll also be watching shares in Glencore and Randgold after Congo'spresident signed a new mining code on Friday evening. For other market moving headlines, see two posts below. (Danilo Masoni) ***** FUTURES POINT TO RENEWED RISK APPETITE (0719 GMT) It's been a strong open for futures across the board, with gains of 0.4 to 0.8 percent - theDAX is leading the pack. This confirms spreadbetters' indications that Europe should start theweek on the front foot, following the lead of Asian markets which rallied overnight. (Helen Reid) ***** EUROPEAN HEADLINES ROUND-UP (0710 GMT)GKN agrees $6 bln tie-up with Dana to help fend off MelroseMelrose makes increased and final offer for GKNNovartis says operations head Wyss resigning, names three to executive panel"No deal" Brexit could cost UK, EU companies 58 bln pounds -reportFacing break up, Innogy unveils further costs cutsRWE, E.ON reshape German power sector in Innogy asset swap dealUAE's ADNOC says awards Italy's Eni stakes in new oil concessionsUBS sees "business as normal" as it contests Hong Kong suspensionPolish bank PKO Q4 profit up 38 pct, largely in line with forecastDutch wholesaler B&S valued at 1.22 bln-1.49 bln euros in IPODeutsche Bank values asset management at up to 7.2 bln euros in IPOPrada shares soar 20 pct as firm returns to sales growthNorway's Hydro says Brazil plant made unauthorised spillsFrance's Areva to pay $554 million to settle Finnish reactor disputeRegeneron/Sanofi offer new Praluent pricing to break reimbursement logjamGeely chairman says Daimler synergies "no precondition" - Bloomberg MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN UP (0630 GMT) European shares are expected to open higher this morning, tracking gains in Asia overnight. A relief rally swept across Asian share markets after the latest U.S. jobs report managed toimpress with its strength while also easing fears of inflation and faster rate hikes, a neatfeat that whetted risk appetites globally. Here are your morning calls, courtesy of CMC Markets: FTSE: 3 points higher DAX 50 points higher CAC: 21 points higher (Danilo Masoni) *****