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UPDATE 1-Holiday firms' shares fall after UK warning over Egypt

Thu, 05th Nov 2015 12:22

* UK suspends flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh

* ABTA says at least 9,000 British holidaymakers in theresort

* Shares in Thomas Cook fall 6.7 pct, TUI down 1 pct (Adds comments, tourism figures, financial performance)

By Sarah Young

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Shares in holiday companies ThomasCook and TUI Group fell on Thursday afterBritain suspended flights to a major Egyptian tourist resort,potentially hitting demand for holidays throughout Egypt.

Britain said on Wednesday it believed there was asignificant possibility that an explosive device caused aRussian plane to crash in Egypt on Oct. 31, killing all 224people onboard. As a result, Britain advised against travelthrough the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh.

Shares in Thomas Cook fell 6.7 percent to 112.9 pence bymidday, while TUI lost 1 percent to 1,150 pence on theanticipated hit to their businesses.

British travel association ABTA estimated there were about9,000 customers currently on holiday in Sharm, plus an unknownnumber of holidaymakers who had travelled there independently.

Thomas Cook and TUI, Europe's two biggest holiday companies,said in statements they had cancelled all flights and holidaysfrom Britain to Sharm al-Sheikh, a popular destination forNorthern Europeans seeking winter sun, up until Nov. 12.

Both companies said customers who had booked to go duringthat time would be refunded.

SETBACK

The UK flight ban is the latest knock to Egypt's touristindustry, which has been trying to recover from four years ofpolitical upheaval and militant violence which has resulted in astring of holidaymaker deaths.

Given the safety warnings, Western European holidaycompanies are much less exposed to Egypt than they were beforethe overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

Shore Capital analyst Greg Johnson estimated that holidaysto Egypt accounted for about 3 percent of both of Thomas Cookand TUI's tour operator businesses, which in turn account forthe bulk of overall group sales.

"We've seen Egypt as a proportion of business has more thanhalved in the last few years. They have taken a lot of capacityout of Egypt as demand has fallen," he said.

The number of tourists visiting Egypt has fallen from about14.7 million in 2010 to a current level of around 10 million,according to Egyptian tourism ministry figures.

There were 1 million arrivals from Britain in 2014,according to data from Euromonitor, whose analyst Nadejda Popovasaid that while Egyptian tourism had a history of recoveringfrom security crises, such as the bombings in Sharm in 2005,Britain's move would hurt the industry.

"The decision of the UK is going to have a very seriousimpact on the local economy and of course on tourism, as theonly pockets of safety in the country in terms of tourism arenow compromised," she said.

Before the Russian plane crashed, the latest setback toEgyptian tourism was in September when Egyptian security forcesmistakenly bombed a convoy of Mexican tourists while pursuingmilitants. Eight Mexicans and four Egyptians were killed.

Trouble elsewhere in North Africa this year includes a beachmassacre in Tunisia, when 38 people were killed in June, forcingThomas Cook and TUI to cancel holidays, costing them 25 millionpounds and up to 40 million euros respectively.

Thomas Cook, which operates with lower profit margins thanbigger rival TUI, had said in September it was hoping for apick-up in demand for holidays to Egypt. In July, it said a dropin bookings to Greece and Tunisia and the depreciation of theeuro would knock its annual profits in the period. Its shareshave fallen 4 percent since July 30.

TUI, whose shares have risen 9.6 percent in the last threemonths, has forecast its annual earnings to rise between 12.5and 15 percent for the financial year-ended Sept.30.

British low-cost airline easyJet said it cancelledfive flights to Sharm from Britain on Thursday. (Reporting by Sarah Young, Additional reporting by VictoriaBryan; Editing by Mark Potter and Elaine Hardcastle)

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