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By Noah Browning
LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Persistent damage to the global
economy from the coronavirus pandemic will hollow out demand for
oil more than previously thought, major industry figures said on
Monday.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC), energy giant BP and commodities trading giant
Vitol all made grim forecasts as rising rates of COVID-19
infections sap hopes for quick recovery.
OPEC said in its monthly report that world oil demand would
fall by 9.46 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, a decline
sharper by 400,000 bpd than predicted in August.
The producer club bumped up its forecast slightly for
developed countries, but cut its outlook for Asian countries
beyond China "on the back of a slowdown in economic activity due
to the rising COVID-19 infection cases".
BP, in its annual energy outlook projected that in its most
conservative scenario, the pandemic would slash oil demand by
about 3 million bpd by 2025 and 2 million bpd by 2050.
In two more aggressive scenarios modelling two more rapid
global pivots away from fossil fuels, the demand erosion would
be far deeper.
Vitol Chief Executive Russell Hardy sounded a more positive
note, telling a global petroleum conference that after oil
storage peaks at the nadir of the pandemic, the market was
"slowly chewing through that excess inventory".
But the trading house's global head of research Giovanni
Serio said that a dent in demand caused by a continuing rise in
cases or a second wave presents "the most likely shock that the
oil market needs to be considering in the next 12 to 24 months".
The International Energy Agency is set to update its
projections for global oil demand in its monthly report due on
Tuesday, after an IEA official said this month that the market
appeared to be stuck between a stalled recovery and the absence
of any major new lockdowns.
(Reporting by Noah Browning;
Editing by Alexander Smith)
