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* Germany among EU countries to suspend AstraZeneca shots
* Economists fear the move will delay economic rebound
* Length of suspension seen as a key factor for economy
* Latest ZEW survey points to improved investor sentiment
(Adds analysts on vaccination pause, ZEW)
By Michael Nienaber and Rene Wagner
BERLIN, March 16 (Reuters) - Germany's decision to suspend
AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine could delay progress in reaching
herd immunity and postpone a much-hoped for easing of lockdown
measures needed for a robust recovery in the second quarter,
economists said on Tuesday.
Health Minister Jens Spahn described Monday's move on the
AstraZeneca shot as a precaution, making Germany the latest of
several European countries to hit pause following reports of
blood coagulation disorders in some recipients.
The government's decision was based on a recommendation from
the politically independent Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI),
Germany's authority in charge of vaccines, following newly
registered cases of a very rare cerebral vein thrombosis,
including three deaths.
"From an economic point of view, the problems with the
AstraZeneca vaccine come at a highly unfavourable time,"
Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer said, pointing to an
increasing number of new coronavirus infections in Germany.
The crucial question now is how long use of the AstraZeneca
vaccine will remain suspended, Kraemer said.
EU countries that have halted AstraZeneca shots are awaiting
the all-clear from the European Medicines Agency. It was due to
give a news conference on Tuesday at 1300 GMT.
"If it were no longer allowed to be used permanently, the
point where Germany will reach herd immunity will be delayed by
one to two months," Kraemer said.
'GAME CHANGER'
In such a scenario, politicians would probably be forced to
put the brakes on any further easing steps, which could delay
the economic recovery, he added.
ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski said the suspension of
the AstraZeneca vaccine was increasing the risks that the
economic recovery could be delayed into the third quarter.
"The decision is a game changer - at least in the short
term," ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski said.
Brzeski said the move not only delayed what has already been
a slow vaccination rollout, but also increased general vaccine
scepticism among Germans as significantly fewer people might now
be willing to get the AstraZeneca shot voluntarily.
Germany's second lockdown has stopped a recovery in Europe's
largest economy, but recent data for the first quarter suggest
there won't be a "drastic plunge" in gross domestic product as
seen during the first lockdown, the Statistics Office said.
The German economy suffered an unprecedented plunge of 9.7%
in the second quarter of 2020 due to the impact of the first
lockdown. It then registered record growth of 8.5% in the third
quarter and continued to expand by 0.3% in the fourth quarter
despite new curbs to contain a second wave of infections.
A survey by ZEW economic institute conducted before the
vaccine decision showed on Tuesday that investor sentiment in
Germany increased by more than expected in March, buoying the
outlook for a broad-based recovery.
Recent German data has painted a picture of a two-speed
economy, in which export-oriented manufacturers are doing well
while domestically driven services are suffering under lockdown
measures imposed in early November and tightened in
mid-December.
"Economic optimism continues to rise. Experts expect a
broad-based recovery of the German economy," ZEW President Achim
Wambach said in a statement.
(Reporting by Michael Nienaber, editing by Kirsti Knolle and
Gareth Jones)
