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* Health experts see obstacles to rapid herd immunity
* Problems include limited access for poor countries
* Virus mutations and community trust also seen as issues
By Jane Wardell
SYDNEY, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The roll-out of coronavirus
vaccines in many countries will not provide herd immunity from
the global pandemic this year, several health experts said on
Monday, citing limited access for poor countries, community
trust problems and potential virus mutations.
"We won't get back to normal quickly," Dale Fisher, chairman
of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Outbreak Alert and
Response Network, told the Reuters Next conference.
"We know we need to get to herd immunity and we need that in
a majority of countries, so we are not going to see that in
2021," Fisher said. "There might be some countries that might
achieve it but even then that will not create 'normal'
especially in terms of border controls."
That was a best-case scenario, based on current knowledge of
the vaccines being rolled out, Fisher said.
Herd immunity refers to a situation where enough people in a
population have immunity to an infection to be able to
effectively stop that disease from spreading.
Pandu Riono, an epidemiologist at the University of
Indonesia, said a dangerous over-reliance on the coming vaccines
by some governments meant herd immunity could not be achieved in
the near term.
"The Indonesian government thinks that vaccine is the best
solution for controlling the pandemic, and they forget that
surveillance like testing ... communications, to educate public
to practice low risk behaviour, is also important because the
vaccine itself needs time to cover most of the people who need
it," said Riono, who was also speaking at the Reuters Next
conference.
WEALTHY NATIONS AT FRONT OF QUEUE
More than 90 million people are reported to have been
infected by the novel coronavirus globally and about 1.9 million
have died from the disease since it first emerged in China in
December 2019, according to a Reuters tally.
Several countries including the United States, Singapore,
Britain and a number of European Union countries have already
begun rolling out vaccines such as those developed by Pfizer
and its partner BioNTech, and by Moderna Inc
and AstraZeneca Plc/Oxford University. Indonesia and
India plan to start mass inoculations later this week.
Wealthier nations have been at the front of the queue for
vaccine deliveries, prompting the WHO to warn there is a “clear
problem” that low- and middle-income countries are not yet
receiving supplies.
Irma Hidayana, the Indonesia-based co-founder of
LaporCOVID-19, an independent coronavirus data initiative, said
public trust in vaccines could have an impact on the roll-out.
Fisher said the ability of the virus to mutate further was
still unknown, as was a possible amplification effect from the
vaccines.
State Bank of Pakistan Governor Reza Baqir acknowledged that
the roll-out of vaccines in his country was a "logistical
challenge".
Pakistan, a country of about 220 million people, has so far
ordered 1.2 million vaccine doses from China's Sinopharm.
However, he said it was better placed than a year ago,
despite tackling a second wave of infections.
"We are prepared for the challenges that may come about. We
are already in the middle of COVID without any vaccine and once
the vaccine comes, it will only makes this better," Baqir told
Reuters Next.
For more coverage from the Reuters Next conference please
click here www.reuters.com/business/reuters-next
To watch Reuters Next live, visit https://www.reutersevents.com/events/next/register.php
(Reporting by Jane Wardell, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
