Shell Share Price (SHEL)

Boyobach,

I am no fan of buybacks, they just muddy the figures. There is also the question of debt, which is also coming down too slowly.

Sawan can say that there is a valuation gap, however the dividend was cut, don't I know it, when I ended up buying more shares to get equivalent. Those like Exxon and Chevron did not so they deserve a higher valuation. We are still below the dividend before the cut several years down the line. I have been in this since 2015 so have enough experience with this company.

I have sold of 20% of my holding, so ready to sell more or buy back when the value is right for me.

Will they stop doing buybacks?

And how much cash have shareholder's missed out on since they cut the dividend?

For people who relied on that income it was quite a hit.

It's very difficult to assess the true value of buybacks to investors - is there a magic formula?

I think the theory is that an income investor should sell sufficient shares to top up the lost income and that the buybacks will maintain their overall value. I've never been convinced about that but could it be correct?

I don't think anyone picked up on this but it is an interesting question.

Current buyback is $3.5bn and there are just over 6.4bn shares (down from 8.3bn in July 2018). So the buyback is about $0.55 per share. Divi is $0.34 per share.

So if all money was distributed to shareholders as dividends, it would be about $0.89 per quarter, which is $3.56 per annum (or £2.85 at £1=$1.25) = about 10% of current share price

No wonder they think Shell is undervalued

Interesting thoughts Boyo. I am trying not to make my assumptions & targets particularly timebound this time, but I find it very difficult. Shell go Ex-Dividend on the 16th May, when I will be walking in Cumbria trying to pick up a phone signal no doubt! Obviously, if you buy back by then you qualify for the dividend, which as you say is a nice bonus. We are stuck with the Stamp Duty, which is roughly half the dividend on a similar level of purchase.

I am working on £28, as the high reached on the 18th October 2023, as being a rational view of where we should be now, without the conflict hype & spike above £29, which appears not to be sustainable without significant escalation in the Middle-East. Market reaction to Middle-East events seems to be almost spookily subdued at the moment. £27 or even £26 do look like realistic dips, but whether they will appear on the horizon before the 16th May remains to be seen. I really see this as negative bet territory, hoping for the share price to go down by a certain time, very weird. Ride the wave & good luck.

“3 UK oil stocks to invest in as Middle East tensions rise”

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/3-uk-oil-stocks-to-invest-in-as-middle-east-tensions-rise-3441443