Carnival Share Price (CCL)

Thanks Uncle, I genuinely welcome contrary facts as reminder. You sound as if you've been burned by that horrible chart I mentioned, just as much luck as judgement I haven't, past dividends and capital gains on the clifftop and CCL as 3% of portfolio now isn't excessive. It's a cyclical industry hammered by political and consumer economic factors (including US own goals) and fuel prices have hit profits in the past, that doesn't mean that it doesn't become good value at a certain point which I believe may be around now, indeed I was looking at it at around £31.50+ but had no spare funds.

It's the major player worldwide, hence the big picture is that my generation is rightly increasingly willing to patronise Carnival-owned companies rather than passing money to kids, getting stranded c/o Thomas Cook, or sitting at home writing this after overnight storm, we're living longer worldwide in better health. If GBP picks up more Brits will do so, if it falls our rest-of-world income here is higher in Sterling terms. I actually like buybacks, it directs more cash back to shareholders and can represent an efficient use of capital, the fact that say £35 was paid for some buybacks is hindsight, as you don't know the share price now without large purchases and it probably keeps the single public shorter sensible at 0.92%.

The recent downside as at September is well covered in:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/09/27/carnivals-slowdown-shows-no-signs-of-letting-up.aspx
But management at least remained bullish in October:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/03/carnival-to-shareholders-our-ships-can-weather-rec.aspx

That what an economic cycle is, my crystal ball is as cloudy as yours, I don't know the future or if it has a few months to run, but I do know that there's little money to be made at the top of cycle when earnings are high and everyone is full of self-confidence. I'm happy to be paid $2 a year - possibly more in the future - to wait. My Aviva shares were just the same when below £4 for ages, I got in too early but was paid to wait, though I exited another cyclical very well and much earlier than expected (11 months) to pay for my purchase here.

Sorry, but what value is there here???? Down 75% in 3 years. Also, SP lower than it was in 2005. Ever thought there might be a reason for that? Yes, because the company is a total failure. Nowadays, any profit they make is being wasted in buying their own shares at inflated prices. Great idea. I wonder where the SP would be if they hadn't been buying their own shares. Wouldn't touch these with a bargepole.

Bought 100 at 3056 for my 150 quid on board spend per cruise.Plus a few quid in divis.

Returned to Carnival with 400 at a fraction under £30.52 for SIPP, I know the downsides causing that awful chart but have no unhappy memories to taint judgement and I think with the positives medium-term and value here it's oversold now.

Personally for portfolio I also need a practical easy hedge against political events going wrong in the next few weeks, even though surprisingly J P Morgan a few days ago suggested this is only a minority view now. My usual favourites for international earnings of GSK, ULVR and RDSB are looking either pricey in historic terms or showing weaknesses, at this level CCL looks robust in most scenarios even £1 = $1.35+ in the next few months IMO, with some decent upside surprises or rerating possible as pessimism lifts a bit. The excellent but little-known BGEO where I have a big holding moves with UK banking sector popularity as much as exchange rate, so isn't quite the hedge I need to balance my significant GBP earners.

Finally, not used yet but don't forget the shareholder benefits with 100+ shares, CCL.L holders are included:
https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

Certainly more expensive to cruise this year on Princess with little last minute discounts as previous years.