Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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>Snooz it would be helfpul to see the NAV based on the long term price indicators - perhaps another what if scenario ?
Cameco only update the long-term indicator monthly, so it's of limited use by itself. I added an indicator a couple of weeks back of the difference between the Cameco short and long term.
Snooz it would be helfpul to see the NAV based on the long term price indicators - perhaps another what if scenario ?
Numerco 8750/9100
Up a little
Agreed, I have to believe that as the squeeze persists volumes on the spot market will remain low and its signal flakey. The real truth is in the floors ceilings and duration of the term contracts. I am new to this market and trying to get any coherant information about term pricing seems impossible.
Part of me is expecting a slow-and-steady rise or spot from here all the way to $150+/lb.
But part of me is looking at the SPUT discount (https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-commodity-funds/uranium/ currently 2.18%) and thinking if that closes they'll be buying spot again and spot will rip.
All that said, am very disillusioned with how meaningful the spot price is (i.e. seems to be not based on actual trades, or even actual bids/offer e.g. Numerco's "IND" levels) - and might start tracking NAV using Cameco's long-term price instead.
Numerco 8850/9000
Heading up
Numerco 8700/8900
Market has flushed out the hot money from this trade now and we can start to build the foundations of the next rally.
2 steps up 1 step down and repeat.
More Crux :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIZ-MJW62Jc
Interview with Tribeca Nuclear Energy Opportunities Portfolio Manager, Guy Keller
Term Markets
Utilities may be unwilling to pay triple-digit prices in the spot market but when it comes to securing medium term supply, from sources other than Russia, they are indeed willing.
Ongoing uncertainty over Russian imports only steels their resolve.
TradeTech’s term price indicators remain at US$100/lb (mid-term) and US$75/lb (long).
Https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/03/19/uranium-week-buyers-strike/
Weekly Reports | Mar 19 2024
The spot uranium price fell sharply last week as sellers became more agitated.
-Uranium spot price falls -US$7/lb
-Kazatomprom warns of lack of inventory
-Still no news on Russian uranium sanctions
The recent price fall is attributed to two main factors, TradeTech notes, and they are both related to the psychological impact of triple digits.
When the spot price crossed the US$100/lb mark, utilities, who are not major spot market participants at the best of times, declined to buy at such prices. Speculative entities, now holding vast amounts of physical material, saw triple digits as a good place to take profits, having spent years amassing their inventories.
But even as prices fell back into the nineties, and speculative volumes were cleared, utilities showed little interest, and sellers, mostly intermediaries, became frustrated and started lowering prices. Five transactions were reported last week at prices between US$90 and US$84/lb.
Numerco 8500/8700
Numerco 8500/8600
YCA is looking very attractive at these prices.
Another brilliant video from Dustin Garrow, he has such a depth of knowledge of the uranium market and contracting.
Thanks Jay053, and another relevant Crux interview just in :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzQ2qsL1SMo
Numerco 8400/8650
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0cw_idpG10&ab_channel=CruxInvestor
Numerco 8200/8500
Ask creeping up.
"Numerco 8200/8475 (previously 8200/8400)"
Yes a tiny upturn but also Cameco up 1.5%, one swallow doesn't make a summer but perhaps, just perhaps the start of a turn around. This does feel like a pump and dump, no matter what there is a structural problem with not enough Uranium and although the spot price is a very small amount of the market if it stays down the shortage will only get worse leading to a bigger rebound upwards.
Numerco 8200/8475 (previously 8200/8400)
Tradingeconomics.com/forecast/commodity
Uranium as a commodity set to rise this year. YCA sp moving forwards depends not only on commodity price but also on how they set themselves to manage the business. The recent drop seems unjustified in the light of long term demand for Uranium so I can't help but conclude MMs are at play. I'm looking at ETFs now such as URA. www.globalxetfs.com/funds/ura/ This will give me broader exposure to the commodity. URA has over 20% in CCO and only 3.65% in YCA. This tells me all I need to know. If any of you are tempted to use these futures ETFs beware the 'contango' effect which can erode your capital when contracts roll. The opposite is 'backwardation'. Best of Luck to those invested here but for now I'm looking at exposure to the commodity a different way. TT
SGD27
Thank you for sharing. Both re YCA and EDV. I have great respect for Mr Rule.
DH
Rogue_Rader - Interesting.....
also found https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/thoughts-on-hedging-uranium-exposure?post=433113
Analysis of Uranium price and YCA.L : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJY-FlGd9NI