We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Numerco 88.00/89.50
Numerco 8700/8900
Market has flushed out the hot money from this trade now and we can start to build the foundations of the next rally.
2 steps up 1 step down and repeat.
Numerco 8500/8600
YCA is looking very attractive at these prices.
Another brilliant video from Dustin Garrow, he has such a depth of knowledge of the uranium market and contracting.
"The Company will use all reasonable efforts to ensure it complies with its production volume obligations under the Subsoil Use Agreements. Concurrently, entities engaged in mining operations at newly established deposits face the potential challenge of descending beneath the threshold of minus 20% (in relation to the stipulations of the Subsoil Use Agreements)."
Kazatomprom revises guidance for 2024 production down to 21,000 - 22,500 tU (100% basis).
"The Company anticipates that the production volume for the majority of its uranium mining operations will be approximately 20% below the levels stipulated in the Subsoil Use Agreements. Nonetheless, the Company projects a modest annual growth in production for the year 2024"
"If the limited access to sulphuric acid continues throughout the current year and the Company does not succeed in reducing the delay in the construction schedule at the newly developed deposits in 2024, this could unfavourably influence Kazatomprom's production plans for 2025."
Worth reading through the whole RNS.
link: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KAP/kazatomprom-4q23-operations-and-trading-update/16313069
Brilliant new video posted today with Dustin Garrow: "Get Positioned to Capitalize on Huge Looming Uranium Supply Crunch"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cA7r1-gD0M
I wanted to start a thread of some of the best talks with the top analysts within the uranium space. Here are some of my recent favorites that aren't behind paywalls:
- Nick Lawson & Ben Finegold: "November 2023 Uranium Insider Members Webinar"
link: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/november-members-webinar-full-video
- Dustin Garrow: "Procurement Strategies on Demand Surge and Market New Phase on the Next 6 Months"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNTjtZ6vuCc
- Mike Alkin & Kuppy: "Uranium Interview at the 2023 World Nuclear Association Symposium"
link: https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/
- Brandon Munro & Matt Gordon: "Kazatomprom Cuts Accelerate Supply Deficit in Tightening Uranium Market; Sanctions Add Risk"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcqLe55twc
- John Borshoff: "One hour interview with John Borshoff"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tgh139bCU6s
- Guy Keller: "Outlook for Uranium"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG9__FjeHkM
Nice to see the general market waking up to the realities of the uranium market that analysts like Mike Alkin have been preaching for years. It has been a long time coming.
Compulsory video for any new investors coming into the space: https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/
John Quakes post continued:
Nuclear utilities can't afford to incur disruptions to their chain of reactor fuel conversion & enrichment contracts across the fuel cycle, so they too will be looking at contingency plans to avert a catastrophic outcome, looking to other suppliers and the Spot market for lbs to secure in their own warehouses as a hedge against potential 'we are unable to deliver' emails from their Kazakh-related suppliers.📨😱
U see... the knock-on effects from an unexpected Friday morning news release by the world's largest supplier of mined uranium will reverberate throughout the entire nuclear fuel industry🔊 from Kazatomprom and its global JV partners to Nuclear utilities and traders. All will now be looking to find alternative sources of supply to meet their contractual obligations, including near-term purchases in the Spot market.🛒
The upshot is, no matter whether Kazakhstan achieves its previous 2024 and 2025 production targets or not, every other producer, trader and nuclear utility affected by the 'potential' for missed deliveries will now be actively seeking out Spot lbs to hedge against that possible outcome, which will then translate into far higher Spot U3O8 prices as a bidding war erupts in the Spot market.⚔️
Kazatomprom has heaved a rock into the global nuclear fuel industry waters and now we watch the ripples spread across the world.🪨♒️
That's the way my analysis sees it. U may see it differently and have different outcomes in your own analysis.🙃 That's what makes a market!🤠🐂
PS. U might want to do some research into a contract term known as 'force majeure'.😉
John Quakes post continued:
Now, just 3 weeks before releasing their year-end 2023 production, sales & earnings along with updated production guidance for this year and 2025, Kazatomprom blindsides all those Nuclear fuel buyers who just signed new supply contracts😊 with a surprise announcement😯 warning them that their suppliers with mines in Kazakhstan (Kazatomprom, Cameco, Orano, CGN, Energy Asia, Sumitomo, KANSAI, SMCP, Uranium One) may not be able to produce the quantities that had been promised for delivery into contracts with their customers!⚠️😱
U saw the reaction in the stock markets and Spot Uranium markets, both surging higher with Spot blasting past $100/lb to a new 16-year high of $104/lb U3O8.🚀
Why?🤔 Because of the many knock-on effects that impact Kazatomprom, its JV co-producers and all their combined Nuclear utility customers all around the world!♒️
Not only does Kazatomprom run the risk that it will be forced to buy lbs in the Spot market, which by all accounts is flashing a $104/lb 'almost sold out' sign, but all of its JV partners expecting delivery of supply out of Kazakhstan (without even getting into all the uranium shipping and transportation issues plaguing Kazakhstan right now) may also be forced to buy in the Spot market in order to make deliveries under their own customer supply contracts - Cameco, Orano, CGN, Energy Asia, Sumitomo, KANSAI, SMCP, Uranium One.🛒
What about Kazatomprom's mega contracts with China to fill up that 60 Million lb warehouse by the end of 2026? Will $KAP come up short and force China into the Spot market to make up the shortfall?🛒
What about the many nervous Nuclear fuel buyers who have supply contracts with Kazatomprom and that long list of JV partners scattered across the globe?🌍😯
Do U think they are going to sit and happily watch and wait to see if they will actually receive delivery of the mined U3O8 needed to fulfill their other signed contracts for conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication required to keep their reactor fleets operating and load those 3X annual fuel assemblies into the 61 new reactors under construction?🤔
Fantastic post from John Quakes today, would highly recommend reading: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1746335647508619432
⚡️The world's largest #Uranium miner $KAP has sent the market a surprise warning ahead of releasing its Q4/2023 Earnings & Guidance.⚠️ Why is this a bigger deal than most realize🫨 that will drive #U3O8 prices higher no matter how many lbs #Kazakhstan produces in 2024/2025?🤔 Let's dive into it🤿...
In September last year Kazatomprom issued a news release confirming their plan to increase #Kazakhstan's national production from 80% up to 90% of permitted levels in 2024, and to 100% in 2025 and beyond.🇰🇿⛏️⬆️ Investors saw that as a bearish signal for the uranium mining sector with many major U stocks selling off -10 to -20% in the 2 weeks following that announcement⬇️ before resuming their upward climb.📉
These were the revised middle-of-range Guidance figures given for Kazakhstan's production:
2023: 21.0 tU = 54.6M lbs
2024: 25.3 tU = 65.8M lbs
2025: 31.0 tU = 80.6M lbs
These numbers were met with a lot of skepticism as Kazatomprom had been saying for the prior 2+ years that they were experiencing supply chain, costs, capital, transportation, labour and other challenges that were making it difficult to achieve their 2022 and 2023 production targets. How was it that these challenges were being magically erased in Kazakhstan in 2024 and 2025 with no signs of solutions, political or operational, that removed these barriers?🤨
In spite of that skepticism, there was a Q4 surge in long-term contracts being signed in the wake of that announcement🧾🛒 as Nuclear fuel buyers lined up to secure their share of this expanded production from Kazatomprom $KAP and its many JV partners in Canada, France, China, Japan and Russia that receive supply from mines in Kazakhstan that they sell on or deliver under supply contracts with their own customers. (see graphics below)
In 2023, Nuclear fuel consultants UxC reported 160 Million lbs of term contract volume, the highest level since 2012 and the first time in over a decade that Nuclear utilities were contracting for sufficient fuel to match their reactor consumption, having only purchased less than half their annual burn rate on average since 2012.📊🐂
As well, Kazatomprom entered into 2 mega supply contracts with China last year that both required $KAP shareholder approval given the massive volume of material being shipped across the Chinese border, much if not all of it going to fill the new Chinese warehouse along the Kazakh border at Alashankou that is to be filled by 2026 with 23,000 tU (60 Million lbs U3O8) supplied by mines in Kazakhstan, more than was produced by the entire country in 2023.🇨🇳🚛🚛
It might seem outlandish now considering the discount that YCA is trading to NAV, but I am starting to entertain the possibility we could see YCA exercising their option to buy uranium from Kazatomprom earlier in the year than many expect.
Interesting post about it from Marcelo Lopez at L2 Capital: https://twitter.com/malopez1975/status/1745941242473742623
Would highly recommend this Crux Investor podcast with Bannerman's Brandon Munro. Really interesting insight into the recent Kazatomprom production issue news.
link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcqLe55twc&pp=ygUQVXJhbml1bSAtcG9rZW1vbg%3D%3D
Final numbers are in for SPUT's Friday trading action: $56m cash raised, 100k lbs purchased, now with $63m cash on hand.
link: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1745961404270862702
101.5/103 @Numerco
Potential C$40m raise from SPUT so far today.
link: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1745847023331672448
New article in the FT today: "Uranium prices could power on after largest producer warns on supply, say investors"
link: https://www.ft.com/content/67bb40e1-59e7-4b35-9b9a-8e7c68a1f469?sharetype=blocked
100/103 @Uranium Markets
link: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1745831371984228656