Member Info for YCA_700p_2023

"The Investment and Operating Restrictions are intended to be conducted in accordance with, among other things, the following investment and operating restrictions, and they provide that the Trust:

(a) will invest in and hold, directly or indirectly, a minimum of 90% of the total net assets of the Trust in uranium

and invest in and hold, directly or indirectly, no more than 10% of the total net assets of the Trust, at the

discretion of the Manager, in debt obligations guaranteed by the Government of the United States or a state

thereof or by the Government of Canada or a province of Canada, short-term commercial paper obligations

of a corporation or other person whose short-term commercial paper is rated R-1 (or its equivalent, or higher)

by Dominion Bond Rating Service Limited or its successors or assigns or F1 (or its equivalent, or higher) by

Fitch Ratings or its successors or assigns or A-1 (or its equivalent, or higher) by Standard & Poor’s or its

successors or assigns or P-1 (or its equivalent, or higher) by Moody’s Investor Service or its successors or

assigns, interest-bearing accounts and short-term certificates of deposit issued or guaranteed by a Canadian

chartered bank or trust company, money market mutual funds, short-term government debt or short-term

investment grade corporate debt, cash or other short-term debt obligations"

So 10% cash is the upper limit.

Https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-cloud-hiring-to-implement-global-small-modular-reactor-and-microreactor-strategy-to-power-data-centers/

I am a fan of Finding Value Finance and very bullish on uranium, but this video is silly and the projections are ridiculous, not taking into account bear market dilution. These are fantasy land projections and should be ignored IMO.

Great conversation about uranium's contribution to nuclear power plant economics at 12:00 into this video: https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/

There is also a great article on the Economics of Nuclear Power by the World Nuclear Association

link: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/economic-aspects/economics-of-nuclear-power.asp

It is very difficult to know where this market will go. Uranium is very unique because the cost of uranium as a percentage of overall energy generation is circa 4-12% depending on uranium prices (with complete nuclear fuel bundles including conversion, enrichment, fabrication etc. at 20-25% of energy generation).

Contrast this with gas or coal where the cost of fuel makes up 80-90% of energy generation and you realise how inconsequential the uranium price is to the overall economics of a nuclear power plant. This means that the price of fuel for a coal/gas power plant is circa 8 times more sensitive than uranium in a nuclear power plant and highlights how far uranium prices have to be pushed before we enter demand destruction territory.

In the last 3 years we have seen 60x spikes in UK gas and 8x spikes in coal, in contrast uranium is only up 3.8x from the $18 lows 7 years ago. Right tail risk is considerable.

Good article in mining.com on Wednesday as well

link: https://www.mining.com/web/uranium-primed-to-extend-rally-on-resurgent-nuclear-power-say-analysts/

Fascinaing talk betwen Kupy and Mike Alkin, really interesting glimpse into the psychology and motivational drivers of utility fuel buyers.

Probably not, personally I would be happy with $70+ / lb by the end of the year, but with the institutional money looking to enter the space I have no idea where the market will go.

I think Sprott said they were meeting 35 institutional clients over WNA, we have lots of new uranium vehicles looking to be created and utilities that are increasingly contracting out for lbs.

This market would likely resolve the supply deficit in an orderly manor if left to itself, but the big unknown here is financial interest. It is an incredibly small market relative to other investments and for a big fish it wouldn't take much capital to really move this market.

Financial players are the wild card here.

Dustin Garrows recent interview with Crux was very telling, he is an industry veteran and knows where this industry is going. One of the best interviews I have watched in the uranium space in a long time.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkVd-OZV8I

Uranium market is looking incredibly tight here and we are not even back at annual replacement-rate contracting levels yet.

Fantastic article from Kuppy yesterday: "The Bigger Short"

Link: https://pracap.com/the-bigger-short/

"Emphasising the importance of EU countries continuing to show unity in the face of Russia’s aggression, MEPs call on member states to adopt a tenth package of sanctions against Moscow as soon as possible and to continuously and proactively propose new sectors and individuals for targeting.

Parliament also calls for the sanctioning of companies such as Lukoil and Rosatom, which are still present on the EU market. Officials involved in a broad range of illegal activities, including forced deportations and the administration of fake referenda on occupied Ukrainian territory, should also be subject to sanction.

The resolution finally reiterates MEPs’ calls for an immediate and full embargo on EU imports of fossil fuels and uranium from Russia, and for the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea to be completely abandoned.

The text was adopted with 489 votes in favour, 36 against with 49 abstentions."

Link: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/pt/press-room/20230130IPR70207/meps-say-work-on-ukraine-s-eu-future-must-start-now

Looks like SPUT was able to get to a premium to NAV intra-day yesterday raising $3.5m and stacking 100k lbs of uranium. We could see some big moves in the price of physical uranium, now that a lot of the carry trade lbs has been absorbed by SPUT.

Not just Japan with news dropping, big news also coming from India:

"India’s largest power producer is looking to develop another massive nuclear project just weeks after announcing its entry into the sector, a sign that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expansion into atomic energy is gaining momentum."

Modi’s Nuclear Push Gains Traction With New Plants on Way - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/modi-s-nuclear-power-push-gains-traction-with-new-plants-on-way#xj4y7vzkg

Japan plans new measures to boost nuclear power to cut emissions and avoid shortages.
Government will consider extending lifespan of reactors beyond maximum 60 years.
Economy ministry aims to restart another 7 reactors by summer 2023 or later.

Japan signals return to nuclear power to stabilise energy supply - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-call-development-construction-new-generation-nuclear-power-plants-2022-08-24/

Threats of Blackouts Drive Japan to Embrace Nuclear Again - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/japan-wants-to-restart-more-reactors-to-avoid-power-shortages

Japan to Consider Building Next-Gen Nuclear Plants, Nikkei Says - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/japan-to-consider-building-next-gen-nuclear-plants-nikkei-says

All of the catalysts are in place for uranium; the decade of underinvestment in uranium supply, reactor life extensions around the world, Japan restarts, huge price increases higher up the fuel cycle in SWU and conversion prices, financial players clearing up available inventory in the spot market, the recognition of nuclear as a green/zero carbon energy source and most pivotally, the bifurcation of the uranium market, with a large part of demand in the OECD countries, but a severe lack of enrichment and uranium production within OECD countries.

The big move in uranium is coming and in a world in which security of supply of energy is becoming so important, uranium's stars are aligning.

UK market is sleeping on uranium. I am sure that will change soon.

Annoying that you have to sign up and login to listen now.

Totally agree. My targets are also much higher than £3.50, but to get to those levels will take a while longer. But a quick move up to £3.50 is definitely likely in the next month or two. The money flowing into SPUT with the recent publicity of 5 year highs in physical uranium as well as the ZeroHedge article comparing uranium to bitcoin will definitely light a fire under YCA.

ZeroHedge Article: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-opportunity-uranium

The huge moves in the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust makes me think a strong move to £3.50 in YCA is on the cards over the next month or two. Uranium price has been flying over the last two weeks and it feels that the momentum is growing.

Grant Isaac on the Cameco Earnings call: "This market is as vulnerable to a shock as it has ever been." Speaking about shock such as Cigar Lake flooding and China contracting 1B lbs in 2010 being catalysts in the past that drove peak uranium prices.