Member Info for YCA_700p_2023

Brilliant new video posted today with Dustin Garrow: "Get Positioned to Capitalize on Huge Looming Uranium Supply Crunch"

link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cA7r1-gD0M

I wanted to start a thread of some of the best talks with the top analysts within the uranium space. Here are some of my recent favorites that aren't behind paywalls:

- Nick Lawson & Ben Finegold: "November 2023 Uranium Insider Members Webinar"

link: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/november-members-webinar-full-video

- Dustin Garrow: "Procurement Strategies on Demand Surge and Market New Phase on the Next 6 Months"

link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNTjtZ6vuCc

- Mike Alkin & Kuppy: "Uranium Interview at the 2023 World Nuclear Association Symposium"

link: https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/

- Brandon Munro & Matt Gordon: "Kazatomprom Cuts Accelerate Supply Deficit in Tightening Uranium Market; Sanctions Add Risk"

link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcqLe55twc

- John Borshoff: "One hour interview with John Borshoff"

link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tgh139bCU6s

- Guy Keller: "Outlook for Uranium"

link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG9__FjeHkM

Nice to see the general market waking up to the realities of the uranium market that analysts like Mike Alkin have been preaching for years. It has been a long time coming.

Compulsory video for any new investors coming into the space: https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/

John Quakes post continued:

Nuclear utilities can't afford to incur disruptions to their chain of reactor fuel conversion & enrichment contracts across the fuel cycle, so they too will be looking at contingency plans to avert a catastrophic outcome, looking to other suppliers and the Spot market for lbs to secure in their own warehouses as a hedge against potential 'we are unable to deliver' emails from their Kazakh-related suppliers.📨😱

U see... the knock-on effects from an unexpected Friday morning news release by the world's largest supplier of mined uranium will reverberate throughout the entire nuclear fuel industry🔊 from Kazatomprom and its global JV partners to Nuclear utilities and traders. All will now be looking to find alternative sources of supply to meet their contractual obligations, including near-term purchases in the Spot market.🛒

The upshot is, no matter whether Kazakhstan achieves its previous 2024 and 2025 production targets or not, every other producer, trader and nuclear utility affected by the 'potential' for missed deliveries will now be actively seeking out Spot lbs to hedge against that possible outcome, which will then translate into far higher Spot U3O8 prices as a bidding war erupts in the Spot market.⚔️

Kazatomprom has heaved a rock into the global nuclear fuel industry waters and now we watch the ripples spread across the world.🪨♒️

That's the way my analysis sees it. U may see it differently and have different outcomes in your own analysis.🙃 That's what makes a market!🤠🐂

PS. U might want to do some research into a contract term known as 'force majeure'.😉

John Quakes post continued:

Now, just 3 weeks before releasing their year-end 2023 production, sales & earnings along with updated production guidance for this year and 2025, Kazatomprom blindsides all those Nuclear fuel buyers who just signed new supply contracts😊 with a surprise announcement😯 warning them that their suppliers with mines in Kazakhstan (Kazatomprom, Cameco, Orano, CGN, Energy Asia, Sumitomo, KANSAI, SMCP, Uranium One) may not be able to produce the quantities that had been promised for delivery into contracts with their customers!⚠️😱

U saw the reaction in the stock markets and Spot Uranium markets, both surging higher with Spot blasting past $100/lb to a new 16-year high of $104/lb U3O8.🚀

Why?🤔 Because of the many knock-on effects that impact Kazatomprom, its JV co-producers and all their combined Nuclear utility customers all around the world!♒️

Not only does Kazatomprom run the risk that it will be forced to buy lbs in the Spot market, which by all accounts is flashing a $104/lb 'almost sold out' sign, but all of its JV partners expecting delivery of supply out of Kazakhstan (without even getting into all the uranium shipping and transportation issues plaguing Kazakhstan right now) may also be forced to buy in the Spot market in order to make deliveries under their own customer supply contracts - Cameco, Orano, CGN, Energy Asia, Sumitomo, KANSAI, SMCP, Uranium One.🛒

What about Kazatomprom's mega contracts with China to fill up that 60 Million lb warehouse by the end of 2026? Will $KAP come up short and force China into the Spot market to make up the shortfall?🛒

What about the many nervous Nuclear fuel buyers who have supply contracts with Kazatomprom and that long list of JV partners scattered across the globe?🌍😯

Do U think they are going to sit and happily watch and wait to see if they will actually receive delivery of the mined U3O8 needed to fulfill their other signed contracts for conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication required to keep their reactor fleets operating and load those 3X annual fuel assemblies into the 61 new reactors under construction?🤔

Fantastic post from John Quakes today, would highly recommend reading: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1746335647508619432

⚡️The world's largest #Uranium miner $KAP has sent the market a surprise warning ahead of releasing its Q4/2023 Earnings & Guidance.⚠️ Why is this a bigger deal than most realize🫨 that will drive #U3O8 prices higher no matter how many lbs #Kazakhstan produces in 2024/2025?🤔 Let's dive into it🤿...

In September last year Kazatomprom issued a news release confirming their plan to increase #Kazakhstan's national production from 80% up to 90% of permitted levels in 2024, and to 100% in 2025 and beyond.🇰🇿⛏️⬆️ Investors saw that as a bearish signal for the uranium mining sector with many major U stocks selling off -10 to -20% in the 2 weeks following that announcement⬇️ before resuming their upward climb.📉

These were the revised middle-of-range Guidance figures given for Kazakhstan's production:

2023: 21.0 tU = 54.6M lbs

2024: 25.3 tU = 65.8M lbs

2025: 31.0 tU = 80.6M lbs

These numbers were met with a lot of skepticism as Kazatomprom had been saying for the prior 2+ years that they were experiencing supply chain, costs, capital, transportation, labour and other challenges that were making it difficult to achieve their 2022 and 2023 production targets. How was it that these challenges were being magically erased in Kazakhstan in 2024 and 2025 with no signs of solutions, political or operational, that removed these barriers?🤨

In spite of that skepticism, there was a Q4 surge in long-term contracts being signed in the wake of that announcement🧾🛒 as Nuclear fuel buyers lined up to secure their share of this expanded production from Kazatomprom $KAP and its many JV partners in Canada, France, China, Japan and Russia that receive supply from mines in Kazakhstan that they sell on or deliver under supply contracts with their own customers. (see graphics below)

In 2023, Nuclear fuel consultants UxC reported 160 Million lbs of term contract volume, the highest level since 2012 and the first time in over a decade that Nuclear utilities were contracting for sufficient fuel to match their reactor consumption, having only purchased less than half their annual burn rate on average since 2012.📊🐂

As well, Kazatomprom entered into 2 mega supply contracts with China last year that both required $KAP shareholder approval given the massive volume of material being shipped across the Chinese border, much if not all of it going to fill the new Chinese warehouse along the Kazakh border at Alashankou that is to be filled by 2026 with 23,000 tU (60 Million lbs U3O8) supplied by mines in Kazakhstan, more than was produced by the entire country in 2023.🇨🇳🚛🚛

It might seem outlandish now considering the discount that YCA is trading to NAV, but I am starting to entertain the possibility we could see YCA exercising their option to buy uranium from Kazatomprom earlier in the year than many expect.

Interesting post about it from Marcelo Lopez at L2 Capital: https://twitter.com/malopez1975/status/1745941242473742623

Would highly recommend this Crux Investor podcast with Bannerman's Brandon Munro. Really interesting insight into the recent Kazatomprom production issue news.

link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcqLe55twc&pp=ygUQVXJhbml1bSAtcG9rZW1vbg%3D%3D

Final numbers are in for SPUT's Friday trading action: $56m cash raised, 100k lbs purchased, now with $63m cash on hand.

link: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1745961404270862702

101.5/103 @Numerco

Potential C$40m raise from SPUT so far today.

link: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1745847023331672448

New article in the FT today: "Uranium prices could power on after largest producer warns on supply, say investors"

link: https://www.ft.com/content/67bb40e1-59e7-4b35-9b9a-8e7c68a1f469?sharetype=blocked

100/103 @Uranium Markets

link: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1745831371984228656

Interesting new article out today from Goehring & Rozencwajg titled: "Uranium: New Market Star", where they make a bold prediction at the end of the article:

"AS U.S. UTILITY BUYERS REALIZE THAT DECADES OF AMPLE SECONDARY SUPPLY ARE GONE, THEY WILL PANIC, SCRAMBLE TO SECURE VOLUMES, AND DRIVE PRICES MUCH HIGHER.

We leave you with a prediction. As U.S. utility buyers realize that decades of ample secondary supply are gone, they will panic, scramble to secure volumes, and drive prices much higher. Eventually, they may be induced to approach the various financial vehicles, including the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, to seek the uranium they need. Ultimately, they might be forced to pay large premiums to spot prices to secure long-term supply. We believe this will likely mark the top of the uranium bull market. This could be many years away; until then, we believe the uranium price rally will persist."

link: https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/uranium-market-star?utm_campaign=2023%203Q%20Commentary&utm_content=278302468&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-940698796903878657

YCA 700p broken today. Next stop 1000p.

BNN Bloomberg: "World’s Biggest Uranium Miner Warns of Production Shortfall"

link: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/world-s-biggest-uranium-miner-warns-of-production-shortfall-1.2021190.amp.html

Kazatomprom expects adjustments to its 2024 Production Plans

National Atomic Company "Kazatomprom" JSC ("Kazatomprom", "KAP" or "the Company") expects its 2024 production to be adjusted due to the challenges related to the availability of sulphuric acid, a critical operating material, as well as delays in completing construction works at the newly developed deposits, however remains committed to its 2024 delivery obligations.

RNS link: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KAP/kap-expects-adjustments-to-its-2024-production/16286256

94/9475 @Numerco

93.75/95 @Uranium Markets

93.5/94.75 @Numerco