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Anyone here understand the table "Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions at September 30, 2023" at https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price-sensitivity
Does it mean e.g. under the contracts that are currently in place (as of 30th Sept), if U3O8 spot was $100 in 2025, they are obliged to supply it at an average of $64 ?
Price action is really rubbish. all the uranum assets feel like they are being dragged screaming high and struggle to hold on to their gains. feels liek a market where everyone is already long, but generally strong conviction so they aren't selling, but limited new buyers.
Early doors movement - not that usual - interesting.
94/9475 @Numerco
94.25/96 @Uranium Markets
Shoudl be interesting in the mdia if we get bove $100 on spot. I've started buy some of the miner ETF and URC as feels like the spot is way ahead of the industry price wise. At some point the trade may be to sell the spot and buy the miners if theyt continue to lag. While spot just inches up each day it shows no sign of overextending. If it suddenly spike 20% that's a warning.
93.75/95 @Uranium Markets
93.5/94.75 @Numerco
**** Unusual imho to see Indic (94.20) beyong the ask at 94.00 - move incoming ?
Jan-24 CVD 92.75 94.20 0.75 94.00 CMO
Feb-24 CVD 93.00 94.39 0.75 94.00 CMO
Mar-24 CVD 93.00 94.62 0.76 94.00 CMO
Apr-24 92.75 94.91 0.76 94.70 IND
Lovely action across the entire space.
Re YCA discount: either Mr Market has now decided it's time for the discount to narrow (similar happening with SPUT) or there's another rise in spot about to happen and the physical funds (and most of the miners) are front running it.
Now showing here at 10.6% discount, Sput at 6%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw/edit#gid=2006377867
GCL still trading at a decent discount: it had been as high as 20% though this has narrowed (and of course the annual rights issue needs to be factored in) but there's still value available.
See we are still sat at a 15% discount to NAV
at the current 93.38 mid price per lb it values YCA at 747 a share.
A lot of coverage of this in the news today: https://www.ft.com/content/06f524ac-2515-432c-97a1-e71aa25189e6 / https://archive.ph/wiPzy
This time last year Germany was extending the life of their last few nuclear power plants by ~4 months. A year later these UK-based (EDF owned) ones are being extended by two years. And talk of a decision coming to extend Sizewell B's lifespan by 20 years. An upward trend if ever there was one.
93/95 @Uranium Markets
93/94.5 @Evolution Markets
Still a 15% discount though!!!
£2 million worth bought at 642p
Numerco 9275/9400
Berenberg increased target to 744p from 657p.
Would be interested to know if they assume this from increased U price, closing NAV gap or some combi of both factors.
Uranium Prices Could Rise Even Higher
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/gold-gains-on-better-sentiment-could-fluctuate-584fa876?siteid=yhoof2
Uranium prices could rise even higher on supply tightness, rising demand and thin spot markets, Berenberg analysts write in a research note.
92.5/94 @Evolution Markets
92.5/93.5 @Uranium Markets
92.25/93.5 @Numerco
92/93 @Numerco
For almost the last year I have attempted to keep track of YCA v SPUT discount using the data from Snooz excellent spreadsheet and the SPUT website.
The googlesheet has been running grabbing the data but I haven't been very vigilant in maintaining it. Sometimes it has gone a bit wild. I have tried to clean it up a bit and sharing the sheet here.
Seems that since Feb the average (measured 2x per day and 7 days per week) YCA discount has been 10% and SPUT 6%.
I was hoping to get some more indications on whether SPUT discount is leading indicator of YCA discount but not got very far in that analysis.
Sharing the raw data here in case anyone has better data analysis skills than I have - proviso is if you'll kindly share any conclusions you find !
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQrhCxPf9KmdOe4yqfLvRWgQwHD41NOFrtTyYAxXauptsZm8IJayCDOoS3_G3OGQDXmgzANjRc7Hgj6/pubhtml
3rd dip in 3 days, market is part of the reason today but does not explain it all as has risen from the low point of the dip and market going down all with no or very little change in Uranium price. The SP is becoming a roller coaster.
Bought a few for my partner at £6.125, hoping for discount to narrow to take some profits but will hold if still high discount.
Not sure what is happening as there have been 2 quite big dips in the SP in the last 2 days as Uranium rises a small amount. Taken advantage of the second dip to top up at £6.10 with some spare cash in my SIPP. May trade out a few if it rises back to around £6.35 (if uranium price stays the same) and see if I can do this again but want to keep most of holdings as IMO this is looking more like a one way bet for a time.
Looking to buy some Cameco but can't decide as SP and PE ratio is very high at present but not doubt will look better as the increased price of Uranium feeds into the sales.
Interesting insights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fw4jAfqtgc