Member Info for LordMandelbaum

Looking at the trades (yes I know they don't all report in the right colour) it looks like about 15k net sold today. I've added a few on the lower price.

Perhaps the seller/s thinks the RNS doesn't say anything new, also tin grades can sometimes look underwhelming.. just playing devil's advocate.

Happy to add here, Taronga could get very large if they continue to find tin in the other deposits and as we know from the flow sheet, it's relatively easy to mine. I'd almost forgotten about Tellerhauser tbh

My tea-leaves say 2.8p is a key level.

AISC for ATM is high, needs a tin price of over $30k these days to make it comfortable.

Think we're just looking at a stock with very high leverage to the tin price.

Think some of the issue here is the 'flywheel' effect of spot driving SPUT and in turn driving the miners working against itself.

In a bull market all it needs is spot to rise and the rest of the sector rises with it. If spot doesn't rise for whatever reason (apply for your tin foil hat here) then it puts the handbrake on the ETFs (URNM is 25% physical iirc, SPUT/YCA) and so the handbrake gets applied.

Cameco, Denison and Nexgen all went up 5-6% in yesterday's session but Sput backed off. All 3 bits of the complex, physical, ETFs, mining leaders need to fire to get the sector out of this current funk imo.

Really informative analysis, very thorough historical perspective, many thanks for putting this together.

RN... we're in violent agreement about the prospects of the company, I'm just bemused at the lack of noise. I already hold MLX and various other tin miners: wondering if the notoriously unpredictable MLX board have asked 1SN to stay stealthy so they can pick it up on the cheap.

Agree they are undervalued but they are also very quiet and as a result have fewer people buying shares. I want to buy 1SN and have owned it in the recent past but the liquidity is shocking and is the number one thing on my mind when considering which London listed tin stock to buy.

CUSN, ATM & RMR are also listed in London and each 'does the rounds' with investor shows, videos etc etc. The last 1SN CEO wasn't the best communicator in English but at least he gave it a go. I think the 1SN asset (Taronga) is easily good enough to make it into production in the next decade's market but they need to make more of a noise.

3 and soon to be 4 drill rings spinning for a company this size is a statement of intent.

Uncertain times for the Blues. Hope ATM strength gives you a bit of respite Blueboy.

The ASX miners looked strong last night, SRZ and ELT catching bids, surely only way is up for the sector

The new CEO started on 1st Jan however as yet (2 months later). hasn't appeared on any vids, promos, presos. Is there any comms plan at all?

Bough in here again. The tin price, Myanmar events, MLX and AFM action, all supports another rise in sp.

Also, they had $31m as of 31st Oct 2023 so they don't need to raise.

Let's see how the respective discounts to NAV fare today for YCA, and also Sput.

Dream scenario is if Sput becomes active in the spot market: it currently has $29.9m in cash available to buy lbs

Interesting that they haven't yet been able to guide on the size of the production shortfall. We could see more good news in their next RNS

Still value here and the discount should narrow in due course.

Compared to URNP (which I also hold) GCL is biased towards the blue-r chip names which, of the non producers, had performed the strongest in the autumn run up. Nexgen, Denison, Paladin, URG etc performed better than the juniors (Baselode, Canalaska etc).

If we're going to see another run up, which looks like it's started, it'll be interesting to see which strata of U stocks does the best. Paladin action overnight on the ASX was beautiful, and looking for more of the same later from Denison, NXE etc. I bought more GCL this morning: sector is only going one way imo

Lovely action across the entire space.

Re YCA discount: either Mr Market has now decided it's time for the discount to narrow (similar happening with SPUT) or there's another rise in spot about to happen and the physical funds (and most of the miners) are front running it.

Now showing here at 10.6% discount, Sput at 6%.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw/edit#gid=2006377867

GCL still trading at a decent discount: it had been as high as 20% though this has narrowed (and of course the annual rights issue needs to be factored in) but there's still value available.

Agreed, barring a meteor strike you couldn't envisage 2023 to have been so awful for JSE.

Chart looks like it's washed out all the bad news and my target is a nice gentle hold till 70p. 200d MA is just above and I'll add if and when that tussle is won.

Leon addressed the "when might you sell" question at one of the more recent presos.

His answer was: I'm just the CEO and if shareholders agree to an offer I'll go along with it.

Personally, I think we will see much higher Uranium prices and would hope that shareholders are similarly aligned. How high can it go? No one knows, but this market is far tighter than the last bull market, with far more purely financial players, so I'm happy to sit tight to see if there's a spike north of $200.

On closing the discount: I'd rather YCA stay boring and not fiddle around at the margins in the hope of achieving this because a) it's really not worth the fiddling and b) any unexpected fiddling decreases the trust traders have in YCA

If there's a $200+ spike then Mr Market will eventually do his work

All fair comments masplin. I also hold YCA & URNP (larger positions than my GCL) plus a couple of the earlier stage miners for torque.

GCL is far from perfect (the fees, the somewhat lopsided portfolio - ISO @ 7% is also too high, the annual 1:5 subscription issue is an unnecessary moving part) but despite this I'm happy to own during potential upswings in the sector because the discount should provide additional upside.

Personally don't have an issue with NXE as it's key holding in the large cap ETFs (6% of URA and 4% of URNM) and is liquid enough for the fundies to get involved, so I don't see it lagging.

Geiger Counter used to be the ugly duckling of the sector; it's always been overweight NXE but from memory the other holdings weren't attractive, plus previously the liquidity was so bad that it wasn't a realistic option to own it; some days there were only a handful of trades.

Fees at 2.61% (might be wrong on this) are also way out of kilter with URNM/URNP (quite frankly they're outrageous in this day and age) however with the current liquidity vastly improved and a whopping 20% discount to NAV, in this current Uranium market those fees are a rounding error.

Noticed that significant buybacks have begun, which is very welcome.

I daresay most who have bought GCL are well aware of the Uranium thesis and are here because the discount to NAV is compelling, so watching to see how these buybacks stack up.