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Uncertain times for the Blues. Hope ATM strength gives you a bit of respite Blueboy.
The ASX miners looked strong last night, SRZ and ELT catching bids, surely only way is up for the sector
The new CEO started on 1st Jan however as yet (2 months later). hasn't appeared on any vids, promos, presos. Is there any comms plan at all?
Bough in here again. The tin price, Myanmar events, MLX and AFM action, all supports another rise in sp.
Also, they had $31m as of 31st Oct 2023 so they don't need to raise.
Let's see how the respective discounts to NAV fare today for YCA, and also Sput.
Dream scenario is if Sput becomes active in the spot market: it currently has $29.9m in cash available to buy lbs
Interesting that they haven't yet been able to guide on the size of the production shortfall. We could see more good news in their next RNS
Still value here and the discount should narrow in due course.
Compared to URNP (which I also hold) GCL is biased towards the blue-r chip names which, of the non producers, had performed the strongest in the autumn run up. Nexgen, Denison, Paladin, URG etc performed better than the juniors (Baselode, Canalaska etc).
If we're going to see another run up, which looks like it's started, it'll be interesting to see which strata of U stocks does the best. Paladin action overnight on the ASX was beautiful, and looking for more of the same later from Denison, NXE etc. I bought more GCL this morning: sector is only going one way imo
Lovely action across the entire space.
Re YCA discount: either Mr Market has now decided it's time for the discount to narrow (similar happening with SPUT) or there's another rise in spot about to happen and the physical funds (and most of the miners) are front running it.
Now showing here at 10.6% discount, Sput at 6%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw/edit#gid=2006377867
GCL still trading at a decent discount: it had been as high as 20% though this has narrowed (and of course the annual rights issue needs to be factored in) but there's still value available.
Agreed, barring a meteor strike you couldn't envisage 2023 to have been so awful for JSE.
Chart looks like it's washed out all the bad news and my target is a nice gentle hold till 70p. 200d MA is just above and I'll add if and when that tussle is won.
Leon addressed the "when might you sell" question at one of the more recent presos.
His answer was: I'm just the CEO and if shareholders agree to an offer I'll go along with it.
Personally, I think we will see much higher Uranium prices and would hope that shareholders are similarly aligned. How high can it go? No one knows, but this market is far tighter than the last bull market, with far more purely financial players, so I'm happy to sit tight to see if there's a spike north of $200.
On closing the discount: I'd rather YCA stay boring and not fiddle around at the margins in the hope of achieving this because a) it's really not worth the fiddling and b) any unexpected fiddling decreases the trust traders have in YCA
If there's a $200+ spike then Mr Market will eventually do his work
All fair comments masplin. I also hold YCA & URNP (larger positions than my GCL) plus a couple of the earlier stage miners for torque.
GCL is far from perfect (the fees, the somewhat lopsided portfolio - ISO @ 7% is also too high, the annual 1:5 subscription issue is an unnecessary moving part) but despite this I'm happy to own during potential upswings in the sector because the discount should provide additional upside.
Personally don't have an issue with NXE as it's key holding in the large cap ETFs (6% of URA and 4% of URNM) and is liquid enough for the fundies to get involved, so I don't see it lagging.
Geiger Counter used to be the ugly duckling of the sector; it's always been overweight NXE but from memory the other holdings weren't attractive, plus previously the liquidity was so bad that it wasn't a realistic option to own it; some days there were only a handful of trades.
Fees at 2.61% (might be wrong on this) are also way out of kilter with URNM/URNP (quite frankly they're outrageous in this day and age) however with the current liquidity vastly improved and a whopping 20% discount to NAV, in this current Uranium market those fees are a rounding error.
Noticed that significant buybacks have begun, which is very welcome.
I daresay most who have bought GCL are well aware of the Uranium thesis and are here because the discount to NAV is compelling, so watching to see how these buybacks stack up.
Also traded YCA before, moreso when it's been in a range when the sector was choppy rather than an in an uptrend as it is currently. But it doesn't feel like spot will fall that much (could be wrong of course) so decided against it here too, even though we look overbought.
Definitely looking to trade some positions in the miners though.
Interesting article, thanks for posting
Very valid point. Leon has obviously been a sharp cookie to set up a Uranium fund at the right time but it's quite easy for NAV to lag if he doesn't chivvy it along, and he should be measured against that too
Tin price spent a few months below $20k which was painful for ATM and necessitated the last raise. At current prices these issues go away; current c/f is all about the tin price and scale. If tin rises further then the sp will react. Of course it's entirely possible it could go the other way if the recession is bad enough.
My view is that sub $20k tin was an overshoot to the downside and was the buying opp for tin stocks across the sector. Now we wait for tin to do its thing and for ATM to continue to dig the tin out of the ground every Q, which they have proven they can do. The froth comes if/when they replicate the tin story with lithium.
Does anyone know when earnings are due?
It's not posted on the earnings calendar i=on the TGA website.
I've emailed Ryan @ Thungela I.R and will post here if I get a reply.
Truss opened her mouth and some words came out
Minimal volume, trades thus far today aren't very big or meaningful
Also noticed the steady buying late afternoon. Could be connected to the upgrade from Berenberg