Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Numeco 9350/9550
Unfortunately drop not done for this month
These are bid/offer for 100k Lbs. We'll only know how firm these are when we see a bid for a million Lbs or more.
9400/9750 and hopefully that's the drop done for this month:
https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1762232402896896311
Still going down
Numerco 9400/9700
Was wondering why discount so high with YCA for last days, tempted to take some more but it did not feel right. Do some people know something I don't and had pre-knowledge of the fall.
Month end smash down in play by traders whose purchase prices are fixed at the previous month spot price - those traders will knock the spot price down as far as possible to get the lowest fix for end march purchases, which are priced at end feb spot. Once this is done, they start the process to bid up the spot at the beginning of the month, to sell the lbs they bought.
well known and not new
Numerco 9500/9900
Not sure if anyone here trades in and out of this as the discount charges. I used to but since autumn or so I've just stayed in.
If you were to trade based on the discount, note this is now at a nice round 20% discount to NAV.
John quakes on twitter...
htTps://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1760725567379525702
Boom!💥#Nuclear fuel consultants UxC are reporting that a non-US utility has issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) to #Uranium producers to supply 21 Million lbs in a massive long-term contract with deliveries starting in 2026 on out to 2039.📜⚛️⛏️🛒🤠🐂
HtTps://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/02/20/uranium-week-follow-the-leader-2/
Since financial entities moved in and made spot uranium a speculative plaything as much as an end-use consumable, the uranium market has become as much beholden to macroeconomic impacts on financial markets in general as it is to physical supply/demand. So it was last week when a “hot” US inflation print sent Wall Street tumbling.
Industry consultant TradeTech reports the stocks in its uranium “StockWatch” basket fell an average -4.5% for the week.
Which has little to do with the current global supply/demand imbalance and uncertainty within the uranium market. It did serve to force sellers into quickly lowering their offer prices.
There was not much response from buyers. Activity in the uranium spot market was down significantly last week, TradeTech reports. TradeTech’s weekly spot price indicator fell -US$1.00 to US$102.00/lb, continuing to exhibit volatility around the magic 100 level (magic simply because it is a round number).
Down again
Numerco 9800/10000
Numerco 9900/10100
Https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/yellow-cake-soars-as-governments-go-nuclear/
Dated 20th Feb 2024
htTps://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-hedge-funds-step-up-activity-in-physical-uranium-as-prices-spike-3307759
Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Macquarie as well as some hedge funds are positioning themselves to reap the benefits of a newly buoyant uranium sector as prices of the nuclear fuel ingredient spike.
and
With the headlines and positive momentum in nuclear more generally, hedge funds and other commodity investors are back in the (uranium) sector.
and
Goldman Sachs has started writing options on physical uranium for hedge funds, the first time it has created a derivative for the metal.
and
Goldman is largely dealing with financial clients like hedge funds while Macquarie's main focus is boosting trading and marketing output from miners, another source who dealt with both banks said, also declining to elaborate because the data is confidential
Agreed - if there was some issue with digging it out the ground in time to deliver they'd either renegotiate the contract (e.g. just delivery a bit later and YCA saves on storage costs), or buy some in the market.
All seems unnecessary to worry about IMO - although KAZ revised some targets they are still producing plenty enough to service this contract.
Wouldn't KAP have to buy on the spot market to make up the shortfall like Cameco have done. I guess this depends on the contract but if this is the case YCA could sell at spot to KAP to buy back a lot cheaper.
Thanks for the update to the NAV tracker to provide the "what if" scenario modelling the impact IF KAP were to fail to deliver in H1 2024.
It is reassuring to see the relatively low impact to NAV of 2.5% based on todays variables - spot, fx etc.
I suspect if KAP were not to deliver its obligation then the bullish impact on spot U price would more than offset the arithmetic impact on NAV of not delivering.
Numerco 10250/10500
Worth a read together with Quakes commentary in the thread
https://twitter.com/duediligenceguy/status/1756076856162365498?t=96KFu0mK06imVuqWPMMZvw&s=19
On the way up
Numerco 10000/10250
9950/10200
9900/10200
Https://www.fool.com.au/2024/02/09/why-are-asx-uranium-shares-getting-thumped-on-friday/
I cant see an optimistic Cameco actually dealing with he supply squeeze though - so I think its fine to hold.
9800/10200
John quakes on twitter talking of flywheel effect in reverse - hence prices dropped off
Been following Cameco and Sprott Uranium Miners ETF after the Cameco results as they fell sharply from open at 2:30 while Numeco had mid price of 103 which it stayed at for a time, now 99.7 so Numerco probably an hour or 2 behind.