Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
PT Timah's (fourth largest producer) production seems to have come to an halt.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indonesian-authorities-announce-2-new-suspects-illegal-tin-mining-probe-2024-02-21/
These are bid/offer for 100k Lbs. We'll only know how firm these are when we see a bid for a million Lbs or more.
Tin mining ban in Myanmar, the third largest producer and a source of ore for Chinese smelters, has not yet come to an end and PT Timah, the fourth largest tin producer, has been hit by a fraud/corruption scandal. Could be a big trigger to a tin rally.
Looks like fundamentals of 1SN keep improving but buyers are not rushing. A positive DFS in Australia could be a big trigger for a mark-up as some "experts" who not believe Taronga could work would be proven wrong.
Near future will be interesting.
For those who believe no mining in Germany or those who believe that grade is everything, do not watch you will change your mond
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mq9_m6979RA
1. Mineral Resources Estimate increased by 240% and
2. End-to-End Mineral Processing Testwork Successfully Completed.
3. Tin over USD 26k
Management is convinced that they can continue to extent the reserve of New Liuka at low cost; Investing wisely in more exploration in Singida in order to increase the reserve with a cheap option ($5MM) to double production (so well planned). My conclusion is that projecting 100k production per annum is safe. Would not be surprising to see higher annual production.
Exploration and future of the company. The head geo was so bullish on West Kenya (could not believe one could speak so openly on an investors' call). I had never realized before this call the sheer size of our concession in Kenya and that it could actually turn into a giant gold district.
Eric was also so bullish. In Canada or Australia Shanta market cap would be 400 MM. Wont sell his shares.
Why did Eric wait for his call to be so bullish?
First Tin CEO Thomas Buenger said, "We are pleased with these drilling results which confirm the expectations we had of this impressive asset, following previous Newmont drilling. We can now confidently use the significant amount of historical Newmont data to provide an updated resource estimate which will include our extension and infill drilling. We expect to undertake this updated estimate in the coming months and we look forward to updating shareholders once completed.
"The DFS continues at pace and the range of workstreams underway are progressing positively. We look forward to providing results from our world-class Taronga project as we advance it further."
While it is easy to assess Eric's contribution (to which all investors must be grateful), the announcement of his departure is having a larger impact on the SP than warranted. The company has grown a lot, will continue growing and different skills are now necessary to run Shanta. I wish Eric well in his future endeavor (and I'll be happy to put some money in his new project and TBH it is not a bad idea for him to diversify his net worth) but I do not see his departure derailing Shanta strong progression and I rather expect the weakness in the SP created by the announcement to be short-lived. Thank you Eric.
the 12.25-12.85 channel that acted as a strong resistance is now a support . 14.5 is the next target IMHO. Then 17.
@Angelis - Odey and Co have been patient stable investors for years (unless I am wrong). What I mean is that you need new buyers that buy tranches of £5 MM or £10 MM. New "size" buyers will improve the liquidity and attract new buyers because institutional investors tend to move in herds (benchmark) and the marginal effort to get a new institutional investor becomes smaller as Shanta adds large names to its cap table and therefore any new institutional voice will be incredibly helpful. My point is that I do not see that happening before Shanta can prove that Singida "works" (will require a couple of quarters) and WK meets certain criteria that enable Shanta management to pitch serious money guys. Hence IMHO this quarter and next will see smaller investors continue to accumulate cheap shares but before year end I suspect we'll start to see the first large buy orders in and the price could start to move. Caveat Emptor. I have no crystal ball.
For Shanta shares to rally in price, we need institutional investors to join the party, for that, we will need a couple of quarters of production in Singida (problems can occur in the first few weeks of a new processing plant) and some progress on WK: more drilling, emergence of a PEA. We do not need a crisis that will propel gold price higher than 2000 for Shanta stock price to be re-priced higher. Patience. Shanta shares are under-value IMHO. The train is on the rails and gaining speed.
Not new news ( 28 FEB 2023) but I had missed it:
Shanta Gold Limited (AIM:SHG) has received a buy rating with a target price of 17p from house broker Liberum following the mining group’s latest update.
Liberum noted that the New Luika gold mine in Tanzania continues to offset reserve depletion with additions and has extended the mine life by at least another year to 2028, at a cost of only US$2.1mln.
Singida will increase production by 50% (100k p.a.) and turn a cost center into a profit center, i.e. more cash to develop West Kenya. Plus the team's ability to deliver in Singida: production in time and within budget and their skills to keep extending New Luika mine life is testament to the high quality of Shanta's employees. Next step: a potentially set of amazing deposits in West Kenya, organic funding and a great team: perfect combination to bring West Kenya/Shanta to the next level.
https://firsttin.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/First-Tin-Presentation-March-23-.pdf
Notably answers the NPV questions asked earlier
The channel 12.25 - 12.85 is a big technical magnet. Hopefully the imminent Singida news will enable the stock to break-out. If it breaks out, according to my reading, the next target is 14.5, then 17. Caveat Emptor.
Thanks aim999. Good article that very well highlights (or reminds us) that Energean's business model is based on long term contracts that shields shareholders from the volatility of oil and gas prices and hence maximizes the chances of a steady sustainable dividend. As popular wisdom says "10% every year" is definitively better than "20% maybe for maybe a couple of years". Lol.
Declaration of quarterly dividends in line with previously communicated policy
o $50 million per quarter initially, rising to $100 million per quarter following achievement of near-term
targets
o Cumulative dividends of at least $1 billion by end-2025
o Post-2025 target to maintain a progressive dividend policy, underpinned by existing reserve volumes
After this morning's rally, current market cap is below $2.7 billion
Is the East Mediterranean the new North Sea? Looks like it looking at the statements from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) and BP that said they intend to form a new joint venture as part of the deal that will be "focused on gas development in international areas of mutual interest including the East Mediterranean."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/adnoc-bp-bids-interest-israels-newmed-energy-2023-03-28/
Another great RNS. Saxonian Mining Authority has confirmed 100% owned Tellerhäuser project can directly move to the construction and operational permitting process. That decision by the Mining Authority will reduce the overall permitting timeframe by a period of up to 12-18 months. CEO confirmed First Tin is progressing well towards the completion of the DFS and permitting at both assets.
Disclaimer: I am long the stock and in my view the market under-appreciates the progress made at both sites. First Tin has a second to none management team and has enough funding to get to DFS and permits. I am also surprised that discovering 8000 m of drilling logs in the archives of Wismut has not created any reaction. It is a huge saving. 8000 meters of drilling for free.