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So the question is whether there is any mechanism that will close the discount? In theory the YCA managers could sell their stock of material at spot then use the proceeds to buy back the shares. However this reduces the size of the fund and they of course are reaping the benefits of the management fees. So cant imagine this happening willingly unless we get to say $150. Other alternative is some kind of shareholder action to force a dissolution, but again can't imagine this happening in the near term or even what the rules around this would be. Last option is an end user buying the company to release the uranium, but that is a pretty big amount of supply and other than the Chinese who else would have the resources.
So it seems until something sparks a fresh wave of investment from the financial community we are stuck watching the discount widen further and further. Everyone is long YCA and no one has appetite to buy more at even $75.
I assume SPUT has some mechanism to sell off their uranium or is it a similar position that rules only exist around trading at a premium and holding excess cash?
Be interested on any other thoughts as to why we cant see a 50% discount?
8900/9100 @Numerco
360k volume trade went through at 6.05 at about 11.30am.
Anyone want to own up !
Could be rebalance related imho
Due end of Jan.
Trust has like limit of 10% physical and royalty holdings. This morning they had
SPUT @ 11.74%, YCA @ 3.4% and URC @ 0.5%
So some selling upcoming.
They have c11mil YCA shares....
Opportunity or threat?
The financial instrument market seems pretty exhausted here. No new funds flowing in so the spot market is becoming a poor predictor. Will take a utility to just buy all YCA shares!!!
87/90 now
8700/9000 @Numerco
Please don't remind me! Came so close to my prediction, but looks like we are going to just miss it.
>8600/8800 @Uranium Markets
YCA_700p_2023, FYI, in case you hadn't noticed...
Valuing U₃O₈ assets at $88 puts the YCA NAV at 700p.
8600/8800 @Uranium Markets
Source: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1735684767226716566
Volatility here is wild. Yesterday could buy @ 585
Share price at all time high, no surprises with spot price
"Tenex, a Russian state-owned uranium company, is warning American customers that the Kremlin may preemptively bar exports of its nuclear fuel to the US if lawmakers in Washington pass legislation barring imports of it starting in 2028"
link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-14/russia-uranium-supplier-warns-us-clients-to-brace-for-export-ban
8500/8800 @ Numerco
The bit I'm very interested in understanding why those long-term prices are so far below spot prices, shame that article doesn't have anything convincing (to me):
> there are a few valid reasons for why the numbers are at least reported to be different.
>The monthly frequency of the contract prices and potential lags in the reporting can possibly explain part of why the contract price has been lower lately.
This backwardation has been in place for a couple of months now - it's not a lag in reporting.
>It is also important to remember that not all contracts are reported.
OK, even if it's not all, are there really _any_ being deals done in the last month for under $70?
> Another reason is that the reported price is usually the lowest bid, even if the price was made at a higher price point, with another supplier.
'X'
Https://titanam.co.uk/turning-nuclear/
"To summarise, high demand, driven by pragmatic clean energy aspirations, and growing financial interest in the sector is on a collision course with a long-term structural supply deficit, complex logistics, and escalating geopolitical tensions. We think this will drive the price of uranium meaningfully higher over the coming years. Uranium prices can rise to the prior high, around $150 a pound, or closer to $200 a pound on an inflation adjusted basis."
And SPUT up ~5%
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/U.U:TSE
Tomorrow should be interesting...
8400/8700 @ Numerco
Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657302-yellow-cake-trades-with-a-12-percent-discount-to-nav
First time in a while the offer is miles away 83/86
The Houses passed it so still has to pass congress which wont be until next year. Secondly this mostly about enriched uranium not yellow cake so different step in the process. Thirdly everyone knew this was on the cards so already in the price. i.e. one of the reasons we are up here.
Questor usually gets mauled by DT readers who think his tips are rotten. Even they think he is on a winner here.It seems the only way is up for Yellow Cake.
Not sure why, but the whole article seems to be here:
https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/movies/uranium-investor-appears-sweet-spot-060000156.html
Congress passed a bill banning imports of uranium.
And this is not moving? !
Spot at 83 and talks of getting above that after close.
Found by mrnumpty on advfn :
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/uranium-investor-yellow-cake-resurgence-nuclear-power/
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Money / Investing / Stocks & Shares
This uranium investor appears to be in a sweet spot amid a resurgence in nuclear power
Questor share tip: the company has been buoyed by higher prices for the radioactive commodity
Russ Mould
12 December 2023 • 6:00am
Last week’s first-half results from Yellow Cake read very well, as net asset value shows healthy gains, buoyed by higher uranium prices and well-timed additions to the company’s stockpiles of triuranium octoxide (U3O8) in its specialist warehouses in France and Canada...
To continue reading this article ...
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