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Copper futures fell to $3.7 per pound from the five-month high of $4 hit on November 11th, as signs of weaker demand and a rebound for the US dollar outweighed looming concerns of supply shortages. Data from top consumer China showed that industrial production slowed more than expected in October, while house prices declined for the sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, China reported the first Covid deaths in six months as Beijing cases rise increasing the possibility of economic restrictions. Still, copper prices remain 6% higher since the start of November on looming supply concerns. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that low prices do not reflect the tightness of the physical market.
• tradingeconomics. Com
A week or two old now, now dust has settled.
Copper futures rose above $3.6 per pound from the two-week low of $3.57 touched on November 21st, as measures to stimulate construction and industrial activity coincided with looming supply concerns. Authorities in top consumer China lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property developers, shortly after the country’s top banks extended $162 billion in fresh credit lines for the sector. Additionally, the PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps after rapidly increasing covid cases in the country drove the government to trigger strict lockdowns and business curbs. Concerns of upcoming shortages also supported copper futures to hover nearly 15% above the 20-month low of $3.2 hit in July. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that low prices do not reflect the tightness of the physical market.
• tradingeconomics.com
Futures seeing a boost with more positivity of expectations that are increasing across a broader range of fronts.
Copper futures rose above $3.8 per pound, approaching the 4-month high of $3.9 hit November 11th, supported by hopes of a pickup in industrial demand and looming supply concerns. Expectations of demand for industrial inputs in the US improved after Fed Chair Powell signaled that the central bank may slow the pace of rate hikes this month, while the PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps to stimulate the economy. In the meantime, Chinese authorities lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property developers, shortly after the country’s top banks extended $162 billion in fresh credit lines for the sector. On the supply side, lower output in South America continues to raise concerns of shortages in the near future, as top producer Chile mined 6% less copper in 2022, and mine protests in Peru hamper production. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days.
* tradingeconomics.com
Updated forecast after a strong month
Copper futures rose to $3.9 per pound, hovering close to levels last seen in June amid worries of incoming shortages and expectations that industrial demand will rise in top consumer China. Lower supply in South America continued to drive concerns of shortages in the near future, as output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year and mine protests in Peru hamper production. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days, and mining giant Glencore estimates a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023. Eased covid restrictions in China also supported prices by raising hopes of improved demand. Also, the PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps to stimulate industrial activity and combat increasing signs of a slowing economy.
* tradingeconomics.com
Data from China influencing a pull back today. But with a supply shortfall looming next year, copper futures must surely strengthen with ever increasing demand.
Copper futures were around $3.8 per pound, easing from the near one-month high of $3.9 touched on December 8th as concerns of slowing demand for industrial and construction inputs outweighed looming supply deficits. NBS PMI data from top consumer China showed that factory activity in the country contracted at the fastest pace in seven months, and crippling debt issues drove real estate activity in the country to contract by 4.2% year-on-year in the third quarter. Still, looming projections of shortages limited the decline. Lower supply in South America continued to drive concerns of shortages in the near future, as output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year and mine protests in Peru hamper production. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days, and mining giant Glencore estimates a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023.
• tradingeconomics.com
Copper futures fell to the $3.7 per pound level, hovering firmly below the one-month high of $3.9 touched on December 14th as increasing concerns of a global recession hampered demand expectations. Major central banks delivered hawkish outlooks on monetary policy to curb inflation, while soaring Covid cases in top consumer China are expected to limit the extent that businesses want to reopen fully, despite eased lockdown rules by authorities. Still, threats to global supply softened the retreat in prices as lower production in South America continued to drive concerns of shortages. Output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year and mine protests in Peru hamper activity. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days, and mining giant Glencore estimates a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023.
• tradingeconomics.com
Global economic uncertainty is influencing ‘futures’ volatility but with Chinas shifting stance on how it is dealing with Covid is welcoming and could be very influential for that increase in demand for commodities.
Copper futures surged to $3.9 per pound level, the highest level since June 22nd, amid hopes of demand revival in China after the world's second-largest economy announced it would stop requiring inbound travelers to go into quarantine starting from January 8th. Elsewhere, prospects of lower copper production in South America continued to drive shortage concerns. Output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year, with mine protests in Peru stifling the activity. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories being enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Finally, mining giant Glencore estimated a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023. Still, copper is down more than 11% so far this year, as global recession concerns mounted after major central banks delivered hawkish outlooks on monetary policy to curb inflation.
• tradingeconomics.com
Quick fire summary update is reflected by copper futures continued uncertainty. But with supply shortages, its expected to see the copper price rise next year at least. Then once global demand ramps up then it will surely see copper rise above all time high of $5.02 per pound in set in March 22.
Since the $4.62 lb previous high back in 2011, current copper price would need to hit roughly a minimum of $6 lb to be the same value taking into account, inflation adjustment and any erosion of the US dollar since 2011.
Copper futures are set to close December at $3.8 per pound, booking a 15% decline in the year as sharp recession concerns offset the looming supply worries for the metal, a key gauge for global economic activity. Soaring Covid cases and an unstable, debt-ridden property market in top consumer China pressured the world’s second-largest economy and reduced demand for industrial inputs in the year, underscored by the NBS showing contraction in Chinese factory activity for seven months of the year. Still, looming shortage worries limited declines and ramped up expectations for higher prices in 2023. Output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year, while mine protests in Peru added to low production. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories being enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Also, mining giant Glencore estimated a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023.
* trading economics.com
Although just recently stated, the global economy is "perilously close to falling into recession", according to the latest forecast from the World Bank. Regardless, copper is looking good, continuing its recovery.
Copper futures crossed the $4.1 per pound mark in January, the highest since mid-June with continued support from expectations of stronger demand and looming supply concerns. Top producer Chile forecasted its output to contract by nearly 6% in 2023. Major industry players warned that worldwide production will be unable to keep up with soaring demand as modern economies transition to copper-dependent renewable energy sources. Consequently, mining giant Glencore estimated a cumulative supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes until 2030, and Trafigura warned that current global inventories can supply world consumption for less than 5 days. In the meantime, Chinese authorities reopened mainland borders with Hong Kong and relaxed quarantine for incoming travelers, further moving away from its strict zero Covid policy and raising expectations of higher economic activity and increased in demand for industrial inputs.
* tradingeconomics.com
London metal exchange has finally seen inventories reduce from just below 5 days to support global demand where it has sat for some time , as the demand over supply is starting to squeeze.
Copper futures eased slightly to $4.1 per pound after touching a seven-month high of $4.2 on January 13th as concerns surrounding lower global growth halted the rally triggered by China’s economic reopening. Still, copper prices have remained more than 9% higher since the start of the year after major industry players warned that worldwide production would be unable to keep up with higher demand as modern economies transition to copper-dependent renewable energy sources. Disruptions to mining activity in Peru heightened shortage worries, while top producer Chile forecasted its output to contract by nearly 6% in 2023. Inventories at the LME and SHFE warehouses fell to under 186.4 thousand tonnes, enough to support global consumption for just over two days.
* tradingeconomics.com
>>Las Bambas copper mine in Peru had been operating at a reduced rate since December 7, after Congress removed and arrested President Castillo. On Wednesday, MMG confirmed that it would start a care and maintenance period. The copper mine accounts for 2% of the metal worldwide, and protests are threatening to hamper access to almost $4 billion worth of copper.
Castillo has been removed from office and detained on charges of “rebellion” after he announced he would shutter congress and install a “government of exception” – just hours before he was due to face an impeachment vote.
Nothing but another tin pot dictator who swears blindly he had done nothing wrong. Although I can’t help but think, bring it on!
I have far too much to say at the best of times iani ;-)
Futures forecast has been updated recently and is quite apparent that although there is not quite yet that imbalance in the supply v demand metrics to see copper price break and push higher, you get the feeling that it won’t take too much to see that tipping point. Is a case of just when. At present with interest rates being hiked that are tightening financial conditions, there are concerns of a sharp slowdown in leading economies. But on the flip side there is speculation that copper markets are heading toward a ‘severe’ deficit manly because of difficulties in South American supply lines.
So it may well be on the supply side that it starts to really tighten first, with the ‘certain’ to increase demand being tempered for now.
A strong Chinese economic recovery is looking more evident that will be the main driver for copper futures
>>>Copper futures rose above $4.15 per pound, approaching the seven-month high of $4.27 touched on January 26th and tracking the increase in other base metals amid persistent supply concerns and strong demand expectations. Investors continued to monitor the extent of improved Chinese purchasing after the country’s economic reopening, as new home sales grew for a third straight week in 16 major cities. Industrial demand is also expected to pick up as the government is set to announce further stimulus measures at its National People’s Congress in March. On the supply side, a series of production and export disruptions by major South and Central American producers compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe, adding to worries that copper markets could be heading into a severe deficit.
* tradingeconomis.com
The strongest indicator yet that Chinese economy will grow, leading the way for a shift toward an increase in demand.
Chinas influential contribution toward futures cannot be underestimated.
>>>Copper futures jumped above $4.15 per pound, rebounding sharply from the near-two-month low of $3.95 touched on February 27th as strong economic data for China pointed to a sharp recovery in the country’s industrial sector. The latest PMI reading revealed that China’s manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in multiple years in February, opening the way for higher output in the coming months and suggesting the economic reopening had a profound impact on activity. Persistently tight supply also supported copper prices, as production halts in major South and Central American regions compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe, adding to views that copper markets could be heading into a deficit. Besides mining deferments in Peru caused by political unrest, ore processing operations in Panama have been recently put on break due to government tax and royalty payments issues from Canada’s First Quantum Minerals.
• Tradingeconomics.com
Whilst on the subject of First quantum’s Panama operation. It had $10billion spent overall with $6.5b of that spent by them, and the panama government decided to close it down because First Quantum wouldn’t agree to pay them extra 375m a year in royalty and taxes. This a prime example of the risks from being in geo politically sensitive country or region.
Places such as Australia, North America and Canada are prime examples of places with more stable governments and policies that are supportive of mining. However, there is still the social and environmental factors to consider that are so much more prevalent now within a good jurisdiction. Being in an an environmentally sensitive region poses it own risks too. The Pebble ‘proposed’mine in North America is the second largest ore deposit of its type in the world, it has a measured and indicated resource of 6.46 billion tonnes of ore grading 0.40% copper, plus good gold, silver and moly values drilled over ten years with permitting ongoing for over 15 years now. Unfortunately, as Pebble is located in the pristine Alaskan Tundra, due to major environmental concerns over its waste discharge plan and the catastrophic effect the 50billion gallons+ of toxic waste water from this potentially destructive mine will have , if it ever polluted the many rivers and streams. This is why Pebble will ‘never’ be a mine and rightly so.
No such issues in NSW on both fronts. Jurisdiction is of paramount importance if a potential sale is to be agreed down the line.
New podcasts out, unfortunately it’s for BZT
I have them also like the rest of CB children
Good news for some then Docit another step forward.
Colin still managed to squeeze in a word for the oz team intentional or not.
I reserve my judgement Howezap
CB does appear to use his power words loosely " Tier 1 world class". Surely not all his companies have world class mines being explored. That in itself would resolve the copper shortage. Best i let Chinas leader know cB has cracked it
>>Depleting stocks worldwide drove key commodity trader Trafigura to forecast copper prices will reach a record high this year, while supply and demand imbalances led Goldman Sachs to expect the global shortage of visible copper inventories by September.
•Tradingeconomics.com
Perfect storm brewing.
Copper futures rose toward $3.9 per pound in June, the highest in over one month amid a softer dollar, mounting supply concerns, and hopes of a pickup in demand. Major market players continued to flag worries that copper supply may not keep up with expectations of strong long-term demand, since the metal is a critical raw material for the transition to renewable resources. In the near term, weak macroeconomic data from China continued to underpin bets that the government will roll out stimulus measures to support the country’s industrial sector. Additionally, the PBoC cut short-term borrowing costs to improve property developers’ liquidity. On the supply side, copper inventories at the London Metals Exchange were under 72 thousand tonnes in June, the lowest in one month. Also, Chile said this year's output is estimated to sink as much as 7% after the 10.6% decline in 2022.
•trading economics.com
Not relayed forecasts for a while due to the gloomy outlook but this rebound is an early hopeful sign. It’s difficult to not see how all time highs will not be passed once the major global economies are reporting growth.
Goldman Sachs to expect the global shortage of visible copper inventories by September.
That perfect storm is bubbling away nicely.