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1. Q3 results should be out in next 10 days. Q1 were out 22nd of the month Q2 30th so Q3 should be out before xmas break on 23rd?? Very surprised if they are released between xmas and Ne year. Despite what some have said, Q3 are not late going by release dates so far this year.
2. Ascot MRE estimated should be out (according to RNS) by end of Dec.
3. May get some news on FB re commercial production this month, but January is just as likely for this news imho. 50/50 dec or jan
When I say news, I mean RNS news not CB interview "news!"
Dani
I really hope you are correct but that is not my understanding of how the agreement works. There is productions costs, CGT and mining tax to come off.
I am expecting 70 to 80 kg a month when we are at full production - probably by March. CBs guidance is always optimistic so I would be very surprised if it was over 80kg a month even at full production.
I am expecting circa £350K a month PROFIT (FB alone ex alluvial income) that's after all costs inc production costs, cap gains tax and mining tax. That may not be anything like as good as your predicted figures but it would be transformational for a small Aim miner and should see the sp back in the 3ps at least..
We should have an indication if your view is correct after first income declared with production figures. I really hope you are correct .
Dani, i,m glad you've been paying attention because Starsgroupsteve hasn't , lol , ;)
hi dani and andy, there has been much said recently about the ability for xtr to achieve it,s goals for 80-100kgs per month. whilst dealing with my insomnia and a packet of chocolate digestives i have been giving this matter some thought and reading some older reports and rns,s . Much of the chat on the boards has been focused on empress, mmp and the cil plant and the assumption that all the ore has to go through the cil plant to achieve our 100kgs and how are mmp going to manage processing all that ore from the different parties involved . Now correct me if i,m wrong ,but on an older report it says that a lot of the ore from the satellite deposits is quartz vein hosted, ie free gold that doesn't have to be processed through the cil plant. boa esperanza, dots luck,guy fawkes and duque are mainly involved in producing gold concentrate which will be smelted separately from the fairbride ore and we then get our cut, which will be from 4 smaller deposits plus the alluvials and plus fairbride . I haven't gone through all the numbers but i am becoming increasingly more confident that the 100kgs could be exceeded when everything is up and running . Another little nugget i'll leave you with that i came across in the dfs for our licence, was 992,000 ounces for additional evaluation and exploitation. Its been a longer wait than most of us expected but i think 2023 is going to be a good year for Extract ! ( just need those results colin ) .
Dani "In the meantime if you can spell out how you arrive at £340k per month if MMP reaches 80kg per month in production that would be greatly appreciated"
You can't just ignore corporation tax (sorry I think I called it CGT before in error)
Assuming POG 1800
Production tax (6%) 108
Direct cash costs (CB said 560 official but call it 600) 600
Prod tax + Direct cash costs 708
Tax (32%) (32% of profit) 350
Net Profit per ounce 742
Margin % 41
80kg Gold a month = 2560 troy oz
Xtract get 23% = 589 toz
41% margin = net to xtract =241 toz
Monthlt profit in $ (assuming $1800)(241 x 1800) $433,000
Monthly profit in £ £351,00
CB said in an interview 2 years ago margin will be 40 to 45% for FB
We should know soon who is right.
Andrew 4444
MMP are still ramping up production and I doubt Q3 will be able to achieve this level of margin. A proportion of direct cash cost will be fixed.
Empress statement on revenue indicates production until 31 Oct was about 100kg.
The other uncertainty about the achieved margin will be the transparency provided in the RNS.
Statement by Empress "MMP has advised that the Company has earned royalty revenues of $185,800 in respect of the Manica gold mine from commencement of production in July 2022 up to and including October 31, 2022. However, in accordance with IFRS 15 Revenue from Contracts with Customers, this revenue was not recorded in the third quarter financial statements as revenue is recognized when gold is sold to third parties. Empress looks forward to this revenue and additional revenue from gold sales related to production achieved during the remainder of the year being reflected in its year end results."
Andy
Yes agreed but my £350k was at full production probably by march
As you say we won't be at 350k at the moment
andmillsy... the transparency provided in the RNS is I think going to be another trust issue here. It seems to be the preferred way of reporting things that leaves it unclear what has been achieved. It irritated me that for example with regards to the alluvial figures XTR and Xplorator were exchanged in the reporting. Or the way the less valuable GF and BE deals were reported as gold produced rather than revenue for XTR. The lack of transparency needs addressing for when FB is finally reported. The market is no mood to give Colin the benefit of any "purposely built in" doubt.
Hi Dani,thw 992k oz is the underground stuff at Fairbride that will likely be targetted after the openpit comples, it is not a vein, and was always there inearlier models, just not included in the feasibilty study :)
hi, no i didn't mean to imply a huge vein, thats not it at all . really busy at moment but will try later to put some links up, but definately NOT a huge vein . :)
hi danni, The main points i was trying to get at was highlighting the differences in the processing methods being used between fairbride and the smaller operations .
The majority of the ore from fairbride will have to be exclusively run through the cil plant, this entails crushing the ore to a gravel mixture and then grinding that mixture to almost a powder in the ball-mill so that it can be mixed into a slurry and pumped around the plant through the various extraction processes . The size of the plant is self limiting to about 42k tons per month ish but will have quite a steady grade throughout its life.
On the other hand the smaller operations involve the extracted ore being crushed and processed through more traditional gravity recoverable methods, ie trommels, sluices, and shaker tables etc , with the end result being (hopefully) a gold rich concentrate which then goes off to be smelted .
The gold in the fairbride ore is very fine hence the grinding process , gold that is " quartz vein hosted" is a lot more co**** or nuggety, is often visible to the eye and can be followed visually and traced whilst mining . The ore grades in the smaller operations range from 0.5 gram per ton up to 20 grams per ton . This gold is referred to as "free milling gold". I did not mean to suggest that there is only one vein, there are probably hundreds but with hugely differing grades .
The other point i was alluding to was the number of different income streams , fairbride , the cill plant and the magical 100kgs , the alluvials , and at least two ( probably more) satellite deposits which were contracted to about 120 tons throughput per day each, and it was with these in mind that i feel optimistic about the 100 kgs target being achieved , though i am sure many will not share my outlook . Happy new year to all , x's where appropriate, ;).
"the number of different income streams , fairbride , the cill plant and the magical 100kgs , the alluvials , and at least two ( probably more) satellite deposits"
CB said at the AGM that alluvial income will probably stop by early 2023 to mid 2023 so we may be coming to an end of that income stream very soon. One of the two small HR deposits, Boa Esperanza, has seen production fall recently so I'm not too sure if this will be contributing much going forward. Guy Fawkes is increasing production so this looks more promising.
Although we seem to have a lot of income streams now, within 3 to 6 months I would expect that FB would be contributing 85% + of income from manica and the other 10% to 15% being from the two small HR deposits with Guy Fawkes being the main contributor of the two.
I hope I'm wrong and that the other income steams do contribute more than just 10 to 15%, but I doubt is and think they will be small beer by mid this year with alluvial income probably ended.
yes andrew, definitely a mixed bag to look at going forwards . I see the end of alluvial production as a good thing giving further access to deeper rock , and would like to think the men and machinery will be re-deployed to either strike extensions at boa or increasing production at guy fawkes or even new excavations altogether, there's certainly plenty to go at .
I,m generally not one to moan too vocally but i do share the frustrations that have been posted recently because at the end of the day we're all left guessing with out some ( profanity ) results ! .